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FINAL+4ATL
KC

KC

0-2

2
6
ATL

ATL

2-0

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
39,362 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

ATL no-vig %

57.2%

open 57.2%

-1.0-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL61.2%53.2%ATL NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 29, 2 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

KC 2 · ATL 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0000001102
ATL0000000066

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, Mar 28·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -149

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Kansas City Royals, 6–2.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Jac Caglianone

Jac Caglianone

RF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II

CF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC0-2
2
6
ATL2-0
KC0-2·ATL2-0
KC

KC

0-2

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-33100010
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-44000001
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-44111100
SPRINT241
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-22000011
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
0-44000002
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
2-33020000
SPRINT27.148
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-33000012
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT26.941
L. ThomasL. ThomasCF
0-11000000
T. TolbertT. Tolbert2B
0-11000001
Team5-3232251138
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
6.0300170
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0100010
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0100100
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
0.1466201
Team8.1966481
ATL

ATL

2-0

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-33010010
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
0-33100011
SPRINT26.632
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44010003
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
1-44010002
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
2-44021000
SPRINT2744
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-33100010
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
3-44131001
SPRINT27.148
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-44114101
SPRINT25.716
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-22000010
Team9-3131696148
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. LopezR. Lopez★RP
6.0311231
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0100020
J. PayampsJ. PayampsRP
0.1110100
A. BummerA. BummerRP
0.2000000
O. BidoO. BidoRP
1.0000030
Team9.0521381

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • M. Wacha
    80 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      31%·93.4 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      24%·88.6 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      19%·81.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·75.4 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.4 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Estevez
    27 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      56%·91.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      22%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      31%·90.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      31%·80.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      23%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·79.5 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      8%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    12 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      67%·98.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·98.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.6 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • R. Lopez
    77 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.4 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      31%·83.7 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      8%·84.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      8%·73.2 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lee
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      50%·82.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      28%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Bido
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      44%·84.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      25%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·91.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Payamps
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • ST
      53%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      47%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Bummer
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      33%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·90.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

2

Runs

6

0

Errors

1

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Mar 27KCKC0@ATLATL6
Mar 28KCKC2@ATLATL6today
Mar 29KCKC4@ATLATL1

Season series

ATL leads series 2-0

Mar 27KCKC0@ATLATL6
Mar 28KCKC2@ATLATL6today
Mar 29KCKC4@ATLATL1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

KCKC+12345%
ATLATL-14960%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 9th Inning

KCKC
J. Caglianone

J. Caglianone

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

ATLATL
M. Harris II

M. Harris II

CF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

R. Lopez

R. Lopez

RP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATL beat KC 6-2. Harris II's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Win probability

ATL vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 7th Inning · 1-0
+20pp→ 65% WP

Perez · homered to left center (390 feet).

KCBottom 9th Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 80% WP

Riley · popped out to second.

ATLBottom 9th Inning · 2-2
+31pp→ 82% WP

Harris II · reached on infield single to pitcher, Mateo scored, Albies to second, White to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0000001102
ATL0000000066

Period scoring

KC won 2 · ATL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Perez 1

1
0

Inn 8

Pasquantino 1

0
6

Inn 9

Smith 4

KC
ATL

Play-by-play · 540 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    KC 2·ATL 6

  2. B9

    Smith homered to right center (386 feet), White scored, Albies scored and Harris II scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 6

    +19pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 6

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 6

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 6

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 6

  9. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Dominic Smith

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 6

  10. B9

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 2

  11. B9

    Harris II reached on infield single to pitcher, Mateo scored, Albies to second, White to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 2

    +31pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 2

  13. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Michael Harris II

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 2

  14. B9

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 1

  15. B9

    Albies walked, White to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 1

    +6pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 1

  20. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Ozzie Albies

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 1

  21. B9

    White ran for Yastrzemski

    ·

    KC 2·ATL 1

  22. B9

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 1

  23. B9

    Yastrzemski singled to center, Baldwin scored, Mateo to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 1

    +23pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 1

  28. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 1

  29. B9

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 0

  30. B9

    Riley popped out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 2·ATL 0

    −15pp

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

2

Runs

6

5

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

9

TB

12

1

HR

1

3

BB

4

8

K

8

12

LOB

10

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 8.5·KC +123/ATL -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 9, 26sim 96
    297
    21(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    303
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 96
    175
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 96
    294
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 95
    70
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 95
    65
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Jorge MateoATL · SS
    SPRINT3099
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

ATL vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low
  • Stephen KolekKC
    2.4± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    53.5%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.6%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.9%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.95 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.