Matchup orbital
3
STL
STL
13-9
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME
5
MIA
MIA
11-12
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
MIA wins
STL 3 · MIA 5 (by 2)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked MIA +3pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
STL13-9
STL
11-12MIA
MIA
Recap · MLB
iami Marlins held off St. Louis Cardinals, 5–3.
MIA -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Current series
MIA wins series 2-1
STL3@MIA5todaySTL5@MIA3STL1@MIA4Season series
MIA leads series 1-0
STL3@MIA5todaySTL5@MIA3STL1@MIA4MIA@STLupcomingMIA@STLupcomingMIA@STLupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIA -1.5
Total
8.5
Standard · 0.0 vs avg
Moneyline
STL+11447%MIA-13758%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 2 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 5th Inning
STL
M. Winn
SSBatter of the game
2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS
M. McGreevy
SPStarting pitcher
5.2 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB
MIA
X. Edwards
2BBatter of the game
1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS
M. Meyer
SPStarting pitcher
5.1 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB
How it ended
MIA beat STL 5-3. Ram's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).
Win probability
MIA vs STL
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactEdwards · hit a ground rule double, Stowers scored.
Ram · írez homered to center (411 feet).
Lopez · doubled to left, Stowers scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | — | 5 |
Period scoring
STL won 0 · MIA won 3
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Winn 1
Edwards 1
Inn 5
Ram 1
Inn 6
Saggese 1
Lopez 1
Inn 7
Inn 8
Hicks 1
Inn 9
Game flow · key plays
- B6
Lopez doubled to left, Stowers scored.
STL 2·MIA 3
+17pp
- T6
Winn singled to center, Walker to third.
STL 1·MIA 2
−10pp
- B5
Ramírez homered to center (411 feet).
STL 1·MIA 2
+18pp
- B4
Edwards hit a ground rule double, Stowers scored.
STL 1·MIA 1
+14pp
- T4
Gorman walked.
STL 0·MIA 0
−7pp
- T1
Walker struck out swinging.
STL 0·MIA 0
+9pp
Team stats
STL
Away
Stat
MIA
Home
5
Hits
6
0
Errors
0
3
Runs
5
Player box score
STL
13-9
J. Wetherholt★
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
I. Herrera★
C
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
A. Burleson★
1B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Walker★
RF
OPS
0.833
H-AB
1-3
R
2
RBI
0
HR
0
N. Gorman★
3B
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
M. Winn★
SS
OPS
1.333
H-AB
2-3
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0
R. Urias★
3B
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
T. Saggese★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
V. Scott II★
CF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Fermin
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
5-30
R
3
RBI
2
HR
0
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J. Wetherholt★2B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
I. Herrera★C | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
A. Burleson★1B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
J. Walker★RF | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.833 |
N. Gorman★3B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
M. Winn★SS | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.333 |
R. Urias★3B | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 |
T. Saggese★LF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
V. Scott II★CF | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
J. FerminLF | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 5-30 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — |
M. McGreevy★
SP
IP
5.2
H
5
ER
4
K
3
M. Svanson
RP
IP
1.1
H
0
ER
0
K
0
R. Fernandez
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
1
K
1
IP
8.0
H
6
ER
5
K
4
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
M. McGreevy★SP | 5.2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
M. SvansonRP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
R. FernandezRP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Team | 8.0 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
MIA
11-12
J. Marsee★
CF
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
K. Stowers★
LF
OPS
0.833
H-AB
1-3
R
2
RBI
0
HR
0
O. Lopez★
SS
OPS
0.833
H-AB
1-3
R
2
RBI
1
HR
0
X. Edwards★
2B
OPS
1.250
H-AB
1-2
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
L. Hicks★
C
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
0
RBI
2
HR
0
A. Ramirez★
C
OPS
1.250
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1
O. Caissie★
RF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
G. Pauley★
3B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
C. Norby★
1B
OPS
0.333
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
6-28
R
5
RBI
5
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J. Marsee★CF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
K. Stowers★LF | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.833 |
O. Lopez★SS | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.833 |
X. Edwards★2B | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.250 |
L. Hicks★C | 2-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 |
A. Ramirez★C | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.250 |
O. Caissie★RF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
G. Pauley★3B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
C. Norby★1B | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| Team | 6-28 | 5 | 5 | 1 | — |
M. Meyer★
SP
IP
5.1
H
3
ER
2
K
8
C. Faucher
RP
IP
0.2
H
1
ER
0
K
1
A. Nardi
RP
IP
1.1
H
0
ER
0
K
0
A. Bender
RP
IP
0.2
H
0
ER
0
K
2
P. Fairbanks
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
1
K
2
IP
9.0
H
5
ER
3
K
13
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
M. Meyer★SP | 5.1 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
C. FaucherRP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
A. NardiRP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A. BenderRP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
P. FairbanksRP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Team | 9.0 | 5 | 3 | 13 |
Betting line
MIA -1.5·O/U 8.5·STL +114/MIA -137