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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TEX
SEA

SEA

4-9

0
3
TEX

TEX

7-5

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
20,997 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TEX no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.3%

+2.0+1.0TEX SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL52.3%44.3%TEX NO-VIG %MODEL 50.7%May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

SEA 0 · TEX 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0000000000
TEX000030003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Player projections

TEX vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.8± 2.4high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Colt EmersonSEA
    0.6± 1.4low

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.4%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    52.5%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.4%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.1%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 15, 26sim 98
    131
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 98
    172
    28(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 97
    172
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 97
    112
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 96
    60
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 96
    255
    23(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Apr 8·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 3-0/VegasSEA -118

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off Seattle Mariners, 3–0.

TEX +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Mitch Garver

Mitch Garver

C

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Josh Smith

Josh Smith

2B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA4-9
0
3
TEX7-5
SEA4-9·TEX7-5
SEA

SEA

4-9

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
0-22000011
SPRINT26.326
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-44000001
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-33000012
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-33000002
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
0-33000002
M. GarverM. Garver★C
1-33010001
SPRINT24.53
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-33000001
C. JoeC. Joe★RF
0-33000001
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-33010001
SPRINT27.662
L. RaleyL. RaleyRF
0-11000001
SPRINT28.175
Team2-28280200213
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WooB. Woo★SP
5.0531220
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0000100
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0100000
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
1.0000020
Team8.0631340
TEX

TEX

7-5

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
2-44020000
SPRINT28.278
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-33000011
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-22001011
SPRINT24.96
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
0-44000001
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-22000000
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-33000000
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
1-22110010
SPRINT26.838
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
2-33120000
SPRINT27.354
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-33110001
SPRINT28.891
A. McCutchenA. McCutchenDH
0-11000000
Team6-2727361034
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. GoreM. Gore★SP
5.0100290
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.0000010
L. CurveloL. CurveloRP
2.0000020
C. WinnC. WinnRP
1.0100010
Team9.02002130

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • B. Woo
    83 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      63%·95.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      17%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      8%·83.5 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      1%·89.2 mph·— whiff
  • G. Speier
    9 pitches·56% CSW
    • SL
      44%·84.2 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      22%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      13%·90.1 mph·— whiff

TEX

  • M. Gore
    82 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      40%·95.8 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      26%·81.7 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      12%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      9%·90.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      4%·95.0 mph·— whiff
  • L. Curvelo
    25 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      32%·84.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      28%·83.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      28%·95.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      12%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Winn
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FC
      31%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      25%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Martin
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • FC
      63%·91.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

6

0

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 3-0

Apr 7SEASEA1@TEXTEX2
Apr 8SEASEA2@TEXTEX3
Apr 8SEASEA0@TEXTEX3today

Season series

TEX leads series 3-0

Apr 7SEASEA1@TEXTEX2
Apr 8SEASEA2@TEXTEX3
Apr 8SEASEA0@TEXTEX3today
Apr 18TEXTEX5@SEASEA0
Apr 18TEXTEX3@SEASEA7
Apr 19TEXTEX2@SEASEA5
Jul 25SEASEA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 25SEASEA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 26SEASEA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 27SEASEA@TEXTEXupcoming
Sep 9TEXTEX@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 9TEXTEX@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 10TEXTEX@SEASEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEASEA-11854%
TEXTEX-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 5th Inning

SEASEA
M. Garver

M. Garver

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

B. Woo

B. Woo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

TEXTEX
J. Smith

J. Smith

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

M. Gore

M. Gore

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TEX beat SEA 3-0.

Win probability

TEX vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 4th Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 46% WP

Burger · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Seager out at second.

TEXBottom 5th Inning · 0-2
+17pp→ 89% WP

Nimmo · grounded into fielder's choice to first, Jansen scored on throwing error by first baseman Joe and Smith scored on error, Nimmo second, Duran safe at third on error.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0000000000
TEX00003000—3

Period scoring

SEA won 0 · TEX won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Nimmo 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SEA
TEX

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  2. T9

    Rodríguez flied out to right.

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  4. T9

    Cole Winn pitches to Julio Rodriguez

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  5. T9

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  6. T9

    Raleigh flied out to left.

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

    +3pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  13. T9

    Cole Winn pitches to Cal Raleigh

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  14. T9

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  15. T9

    Raley struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

    +3pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  21. T9

    Cole Winn pitches to Luke Raley

    · ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  22. T9

    Raley hit for Refsnyder

    ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  23. T9

    ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  24. T9

    Young singled to right.

    ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

    −4pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  29. T9

    Cole Winn pitches to Cole Young

    ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

  30. T9

    Winn relieved Curvelo

    ·

    SEA 0·TEX 3

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

0

Runs

3

2

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

2

TB

7

0

HR

0

2

BB

3

13

K

4

10

LOB

9

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 7.5·SEA -118/TEX -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872