
DET
2-1

SD
1-2
Line movement
6 snapshots
SD spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
SD no-vig %
51.7%
open 51.7%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
SD wins
DET 0 · SD 3 (by 3)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked SD +4pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-118
Close price
-118
Open no-vig
51.7%
Close no-vig
51.7%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
Recap · MLB
an Diego Padres held off Detroit Tigers, 3–0.
SD +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DET · top performer

Colt Keith
3B
3-2
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
SD · top performer

Ramon Laureano
LF
4-3
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
MLB · Box scoreADVANCED


DET
2-1
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.735 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT25.18 | ||||||||
| 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.381 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT2744 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.765 | ||||||||
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 2-29 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 4.1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
SD
1-2
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.891 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT28.483 | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.688 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT2872 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.838 | ||||||||
| Team | 7-31 | 31 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | |
| 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
2
Hits
7
0
Runs
3
1
Errors
0
Current series
DET wins series 2-1
Season series
DET wins series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -1.5
Total
8.0
Defensive · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 3rd Inning
C. Keith
3BBatter of the game
2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS
J. Flaherty
SPStarting pitcher
4.1 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 4 BB
R. Laureano
LFBatter of the game
3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS
R. Vasquez
SPStarting pitcherQuality start
6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB
How it ended
SD beat DET 3-0.
Win probability
SD vs DET
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGreene · grounded into fielder's choice to second, Keith to third, Torres out at home.
Tatis Jr. · singled to right, Fermin scored, Cronenworth to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 |
Period scoring
DET won 0 · SD won 2
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Jr. 1
Inn 4
Inn 5
Merrill 1
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 539 plays
· ·
DET 0·SD 3
McGonigle struck out swinging.
· ·
DET 0·SD 3
+1pp
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
DET 0·SD 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
DET 0·SD 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
DET 0·SD 3
Mason Miller pitches to Kevin McGonigle
· ·
DET 0·SD 3
·
DET 0·SD 3
Torkelson walked.
·
DET 0·SD 3
−0.7pp
Pitch 7 : Ball 4
·
DET 0·SD 3
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
·
DET 0·SD 3
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
DET 0·SD 3
Pitch 4 : Ball 3
·
DET 0·SD 3
Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul
·
DET 0·SD 3
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
DET 0·SD 3
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
DET 0·SD 3
Mason Miller pitches to Spencer Torkelson
·
DET 0·SD 3
·
DET 0·SD 3
Greene flied out to left.
·
DET 0·SD 3
+1pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
DET 0·SD 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
·
DET 0·SD 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
DET 0·SD 3
Mason Miller pitches to Riley Greene
·
DET 0·SD 3
·
DET 0·SD 3
Keith struck out looking.
·
DET 0·SD 3
+2pp
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking
·
DET 0·SD 3
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
DET 0·SD 3
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
DET 0·SD 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
DET 0·SD 3
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
DET 0·SD 3
Mason Miller pitches to Colt Keith
·
DET 0·SD 3
Team stats
DET
Away
Stat
SD
Home
0
Runs
3
2
Hits
7
1
Errors
0
3
TB
7
0
HR
0
4
BB
4
13
K
6
10
LOB
12
Betting line
DET -1.5·O/U 8·DET -102/SD -118
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
124
projections · 76 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
54.4%
ensemble · SD favored
Elo Static
54.1%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.1%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.5%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.32 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
91% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.