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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5SD
SD

SD

5-5

5
0
PIT

PIT

6-4

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
8,446 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PIT no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

-1.0-2.0PIT SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL60.3%52.3%PIT NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 5 · PIT 0 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0001210105
PIT0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Mon, Apr 6·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1/VegasPIT -143

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 5–0.

SD +1.5 cashed (PIT lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Jake Cronenworth

Jake Cronenworth

2B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD5-5
5
0
PIT6-4
SD5-5·PIT6-4
SD

SD

5-5

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-55111001
SPRINT2872
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
0-44100011
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
1-44011011
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44111012
SPRINT24.32
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
2-44020010
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-55000001
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
2-44021000
SPRINT27.148
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
2-44220002
SPRINT26.838
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
2-33021011
SPRINT28.891
Team11-37375115059
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. MarquezG. Marquez★SP
5.0600140
R. MarinaccioR. MarinaccioRP
2.0100110
D. MorganD. MorganRP
2.0000310
Team9.0700560
PIT

PIT

6-4

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-33010011
SPRINT27.969
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT26.735
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-44000000
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44010001
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
2-33020010
SPRINT24.85
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
0-44000002
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-22000010
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
0-11000000
Team7-3131070056
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ChandlerB. Chandler★SP
4.1533440
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
1.2211000
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0200020
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.0211020
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0000110
Team9.01155590

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • G. Marquez
    92 pitches·25% CSW
    • KC
      40%·85.8 mph·32% whiff
    • FF
      39%·94.0 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      1%·84.4 mph·— whiff
  • D. Morgan
    39 pitches·21% CSW
    • CU
      36%·82.5 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      33%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      28%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Marinaccio
    30 pitches·23% CSW
    • CH
      57%·80.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      27%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·85.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      3%·82.3 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • B. Chandler
    83 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      66%·99.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      18%·92.9 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      14%·90.4 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      1%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    27 pitches·22% CSW
    • ST
      41%·83.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      90%·94.3 mph·44% whiff
    • CH
      5%·84.5 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      5%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soto
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      67%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·82.3 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      11%·81.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      54%·80.9 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      31%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·93.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

7

5

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Apr 6SDSD5@PITPIT0today
Apr 7SDSD1@PITPIT7
Apr 8SDSD8@PITPIT2

Season series

SD leads series 1-0

Apr 6SDSD5@PITPIT0today
Apr 7SDSD1@PITPIT7
Apr 8SDSD8@PITPIT2
Aug 25PITPIT@SDSDupcoming
Aug 26PITPIT@SDSDupcoming
Aug 26PITPIT@SDSDupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SDSD+11946%
PITPIT-14359%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 5th Inning

SDSD
J. Cronenworth

J. Cronenworth

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

G. Marquez

G. Marquez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

PITPIT
S. Horwitz

S. Horwitz

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

B. Chandler

B. Chandler

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

How it ended

SD beat PIT 5-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PIT vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 39% WP

Cronenworth · singled to right.

SDTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 52% WP

Castellanos · doubled to left, Machado scored, Sheets to third.

SDTop 5th Inning · 2-0
+16pp→ 78% WP

Merrill · hit a ground rule double, Laureano scored, Tatis Jr. to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0001210105
PIT0000000000

Period scoring

SD won 4 · PIT won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Castellanos 1

2
0

Inn 5

Merrill 1

1
0

Inn 6

Cronenworth 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Laureano 1

0
0

Inn 9

SD
PIT

Play-by-play · 606 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 5·PIT 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  3. B9

    Mangum bunt grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  6. B9

    David Morgan pitches to Jake Mangum

    · ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  7. B9

    Mangum hit for Davis

    ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  8. B9

    · ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  9. B9

    Griffin struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  17. B9

    David Morgan pitches to Konnor Griffin

    · ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  18. B9

    ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  19. B9

    Horwitz walked.

    ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  25. B9

    David Morgan pitches to Spencer Horwitz

    ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  26. B9

    ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  27. B9

    Gonzales grounded out to first.

    ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SD 5·PIT 0

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

5

Runs

0

11

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

16

TB

8

0

HR

0

5

BB

5

9

K

6

19

LOB

17

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 8.5·SD +119/PIT -143

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 8, 26sim 98
    122
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 97
    70
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 97
    172
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    120
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    112
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    135
    12(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

PIT vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low

Hits

  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    1.8± 3.1high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high
  • Marcell OzunaPIT
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    52.2%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.3%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.9%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.