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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CIN
CIN

CIN

6-3

2
1
TEX

TEX

4-5

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
31,561 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TEX no-vig %

54.3%

open 54.3%

-1.0-2.0TEX SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL58.3%50.3%TEX NO-VIG %MODEL 51.2%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 2 · TEX 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0001000102
TEX0000001001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 8, 26sim 97
    120
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 97
    60
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 97
    112
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 97
    172
    28(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 97
    255
    23(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 96
    172
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Apr 5·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 3-0/VegasTEX -132

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into Texas Rangers and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

CIN +1.5 cashed (TEX lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Will Benson

Will Benson

RF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson

DH

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN6-3
2
1
TEX4-5
CIN6-3·TEX4-5
CIN

CIN

6-3

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-44010012
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-44100013
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
2-55121001
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
0-33000011
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-33011011
SPRINT25.818
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
1-44010002
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-44000002
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
1-22010000
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
1-44010000
W. BensonW. BensonRF
2-22020000
SPRINT2872
Team9-35352920412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BurnsC. Burns★SP
6.0511191
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
0.2000110
S. MollS. MollRP
0.1000010
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
1.0100110
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
1.0000030
Team9.06113151
TEX

TEX

4-5

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
2-44020002
SPRINT28.278
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-44000001
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-44000002
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT2744
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-33111111
SPRINT25.716
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.175
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
1-33010011
SPRINT23.91
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-22000011
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
0-22000000
S. HaggertyS. HaggertyLF
0-11000001
A. McCutchenA. McCutchenDH
0-11000001
J. JungJ. Jung3B
0-11000001
Team6-33331611315
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LeiterJ. Leiter★SP
5.0411190
J. LatzJ. LatzRP
1.0000110
C. WinnC. WinnRP
1.0100010
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
0.1111200
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.1300010
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
0.1000000
Team9.09224120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • C. Burns
    87 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      52%·98.7 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      39%·91.2 mph·56% whiff
    • CH
      9%·90.4 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Phillips
    28 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      61%·86.3 mph·30% whiff
    • FF
      39%·98.1 mph·14% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • CU
      90%·85.5 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Burke
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      57%·97.0 mph·80% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      14%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Moll
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      50%·81.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      33%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.6 mph·— whiff

TEX

  • J. Leiter
    85 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      38%·97.3 mph·53% whiff
    • CH
      24%·90.7 mph·54% whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      9%·81.5 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      8%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      50%·88.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      40%·94.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      10%·84.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Latz
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      47%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      26%·82.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      11%·79.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Winn
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      14%·89.6 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      14%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·83.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      7%·93.3 mph·— whiff
  • C. Martin
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      31%·93.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      23%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      15%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Beeks
    2 pitches·50% CSW
    • FC
      50%·82.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      50%·93.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

6

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

CIN wins series 3-0

Apr 3CINCIN5@TEXTEX3
Apr 4CINCIN2@TEXTEX0
Apr 5CINCIN2@TEXTEX1today

Season series

CIN wins series 3-0

Apr 3CINCIN5@TEXTEX3
Apr 4CINCIN2@TEXTEX0
Apr 5CINCIN2@TEXTEX1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CINCIN+10948%
TEXTEX-13257%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 29pp · Bottom 7th Inning

CINCIN
W. Benson

W. Benson

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

C. Burns

C. Burns

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

TEXTEX
J. Pederson

J. Pederson

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

J. Leiter

J. Leiter

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CIN beat TEX 2-1. Pederson's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TEX vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXBottom 7th Inning · 1-1
+29pp→ 63% WP

Pederson · homered to right (361 feet).

CINTop 8th Inning · 2-1
+22pp→ 76% WP

De La Cruz · singled to right, McLain scored.

CINBottom 8th Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 84% WP

Carter · flied out to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0001000102
TEX0000001001

Period scoring

CIN won 2 · TEX won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Pederson 1

1
0

Inn 8

Cruz 1

0
0

Inn 9

CIN
TEX

Play-by-play · 601 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  3. B9

    Jung struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  9. B9

    Brock Burke pitches to Josh Jung

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  10. B9

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  11. B9

    Haggerty struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

    −6pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  18. B9

    Brock Burke pitches to Sam Haggerty

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  19. B9

    Haggerty hit for Smith

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  20. B9

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  21. B9

    Higashioka struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

    −8pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  25. B9

    Brock Burke pitches to Kyle Higashioka

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  26. B9

    Burke relieved Phillips

    ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  29. T9

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

  30. T9

    De La Cruz flied out to second.

    · ·

    CIN 2·TEX 1

    +3pp

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

2

Runs

1

9

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

10

TB

10

0

HR

1

4

BB

3

12

K

15

24

LOB

16

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 7.5·CIN +109/TEX -132

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TEX vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.3low
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    1.9± 2.3high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.9± 1.8high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.9± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Tyler StephensonCIN
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.4± 3.6low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.1%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    52.8%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.5%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.7%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.