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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6SD
SD

SD

6-6

8
2
PIT

PIT

7-5

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
10,046 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

PIT spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

PIT no-vig %

47.7%

open 47.7%

+2.0+1.0PIT SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL51.7%43.7%PIT NO-VIG %MODEL 50.3%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 8 · PIT 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0000004048
PIT0000002002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 5, 26sim 97
    111
    22(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 97
    176
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 97
    171
    28(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 96
    114
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 96
    1811
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 96
    133
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Apr 8·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1/VegasSD -121

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SD -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Jake Cronenworth

Jake Cronenworth

2B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Nick Yorke

Nick Yorke

3B

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD6-6
8
2
PIT7-5
SD6-6·PIT7-5
SD

SD

6-6

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
2-55120002
SPRINT2872
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-55111002
SPRINT28.483
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-55000001
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-55010001
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-55110001
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
2-44120000
SPRINT26.530
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-33112010
SPRINT27.148
L. CampusanoL. Campusano★C
1-44111001
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-44112101
SPRINT28.891
Team10-40408106119
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KingM. King★SP
6.0422340
K. HartK. HartRP
1.0100100
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0100000
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0000020
Team9.0622460
PIT

PIT

7-5

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-44000001
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-22000020
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
0-44000000
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
3-33130010
SPRINT27.662
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44110000
SPRINT28.586
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-22000000
J. BartJ. Bart★C
1-44011002
SPRINT26.428
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
0-33000011
K. GriffinK. GriffinSS
0-11001001
SPRINT29.899
Team6-3131262046
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellerM. Keller★SP
6.0300140
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.0343021
J. UrquidyJ. UrquidyRP
2.0441030
Team9.01084191

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • M. King
    95 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      33%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      28%·85.5 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      17%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·93.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Hart
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • FS
      29%·85.7 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      29%·83.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      24%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Estrada
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·94.4 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      25%·80.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.7 mph·— whiff
  • M. Miller
    10 pitches·70% CSW
    • SL
      50%·87.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      40%·102.0 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      10%·97.0 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • M. Keller
    75 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      31%·92.9 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      31%·82.2 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      27%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·77.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      5%·88.1 mph·67% whiff
  • J. Urquidy
    36 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      39%·92.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      19%·83.9 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      19%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·81.1 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      8%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      44%·80.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      32%·94.0 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      24%·94.0 mph·60% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

6

8

Runs

2

0

Errors

3

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Apr 6SDSD5@PITPIT0
Apr 7SDSD1@PITPIT7
Apr 8SDSD8@PITPIT2today

Season series

SD leads series 2-1

Apr 6SDSD5@PITPIT0
Apr 7SDSD1@PITPIT7
Apr 8SDSD8@PITPIT2today
Aug 25PITPIT@SDSDupcoming
Aug 26PITPIT@SDSDupcoming
Aug 26PITPIT@SDSDupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SDSD-12155%
PITPIT+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 7th Inning

SDSD
J. Cronenworth

J. Cronenworth

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

M. King

M. King

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

PITPIT
N. Yorke

N. Yorke

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

M. Keller

M. Keller

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SD beat PIT 8-2. Andujar's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PIT vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 65% WP

Yorke · doubled to right.

SDTop 7th Inning · 0-0
+18pp→ 72% WP

Andujar · doubled to left, Bogaerts to third.

SDTop 7th Inning · 4-0
+11pp→ 94% WP

Cronenworth · homered to right center (399 feet), Castellanos scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0000004048
PIT0000002002

Period scoring

SD won 2 · PIT won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

4
2

Inn 7

Castellanos 2

Griffin 1

0
0

Inn 8

4
0

Inn 9

Campusano 1

SD
PIT

Play-by-play · 561 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 8·PIT 2

  2. B9

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  3. B9

    Mangum grounded out to third.

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  6. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Jake Mangum

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  7. B9

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  8. B9

    Bart struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  12. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Joey Bart

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  13. B9

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  14. B9

    Griffin struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  20. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Konnor Griffin

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  21. B9

    Miller relieved Estrada

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  22. B9

    Johnson as designated hitter.

    SD 8·PIT 2

  23. B9

    France at first base.

    SD 8·PIT 2

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SD 8·PIT 2

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SD 8·PIT 2

  26. T9

    · ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  27. T9

    Bogaerts struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  29. T9

    Tatis Jr. stole home, Merrill stole second.

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

  30. T9

    Tatis Jr. stole home, Merrill stole second.

    ·

    SD 8·PIT 2

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

8

Runs

2

10

Hits

6

0

Errors

3

17

TB

9

1

HR

0

1

BB

4

9

K

6

17

LOB

17

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 7·SD -121/PIT +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.7%

Close no-vig

47.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

PIT vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high
  • Spencer HorwitzPIT
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high
  • Marcell OzunaPIT
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    52.2%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.1%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.7%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.67 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.