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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3CIN
CIN

CIN

8-3

6
3
MIA

MIA

6-5

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
8,318 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIA no-vig %

56.4%

open 56.4%

-1.0-2.0MIA SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL60.4%52.4%MIA NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 6 · MIA 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
CIN00000000246
MIA00020000013

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 9, 26sim 100
    171
    28(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 97
    251
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 97
    258
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 97
    113
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 96
    143
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 96
    133
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.6%

Close no-vig

43.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, Apr 7·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasMIA -144

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into Miami Marlins and beat them, 6–3.

CIN +1.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe

DH

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Jakob Marsee

Jakob Marsee

CF

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
CIN8-3
6
3
MIA6-5
CIN8-3·MIA6-5
CIN

CIN

8-3

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-44100010
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
2-55122000
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-33101020
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
1-33011011
SPRINT26.530
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-33000011
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-44100002
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-33100013
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
1-44010001
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-22000000
W. BensonW. BensonRF
0-11000000
N. LoweN. LoweDH
1-22011000
SPRINT25.411
Team5-3434655068
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AbbottA. Abbott★SP
5.1622220
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
0.2000010
J. FrancoJ. FrancoRP
2.0000220
E. PaganE. PaganRP
1.0000220
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0110000
Team10.0732670
MIA

MIA

6-5

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. SlaterA. Slater★RF
0-33000001
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-55110002
SPRINT27.354
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
2-44220010
SPRINT27.765
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-55011001
SPRINT28.381
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
1-33011010
SPRINT28.483
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
1-33010020
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-44000000
L. JimenezL. Jimenez★3B
0-22000000
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
1-33010010
G. ConineG. ConineLF
0-11000011
G. PauleyG. Pauley3B
0-11001000
SPRINT26.326
L. HicksL. HicksC
0-22000002
Team7-3636373067
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. AlcantaraS. Alcantara★SP
8.1322260
A. BenderA. BenderRP
0.2000110
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
0.1243210
J. KingJ. KingRP
0.2000100
Team10.0565680

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • A. Abbott
    91 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      52%·92.8 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      27%·86.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      11%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·79.5 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Franco
    31 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      52%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      39%·85.5 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Pagan
    24 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      54%·94.1 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      29%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      17%·82.3 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      50%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·91.9 mph·50% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • CU
      86%·85.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.1 mph·— whiff

MIA

  • S. Alcantara
    95 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      27%·97.5 mph·15% whiff
    • CH
      26%·90.8 mph·42% whiff
    • SI
      26%·97.4 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·91.0 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      2%·83.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      1%·80.9 mph·— whiff
  • C. Faucher
    28 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      39%·88.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      29%·92.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      11%·86.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      7%·97.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Bender
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      48%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      43%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·86.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. King
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      29%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·91.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      14%·79.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      14%·81.5 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

6

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 6CINCIN2@MIAMIA0
Apr 7CINCIN6@MIAMIA3today
Apr 8CINCIN4@MIAMIA7
Apr 9CINCIN1@MIAMIA8

Season series

CIN leads series 2-0

Apr 6CINCIN2@MIAMIA0
Apr 7CINCIN6@MIAMIA3today
Apr 8CINCIN4@MIAMIA7
Apr 9CINCIN1@MIAMIA8
Aug 14MIAMIA@CINCINupcoming
Aug 15MIAMIA@CINCINupcoming
Aug 16MIAMIA@CINCINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CINCIN+11946%
MIAMIA-14459%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 25pp · Top 9th Inning

CINCIN
N. Lowe

N. Lowe

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

A. Abbott

A. Abbott

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

MIAMIA
J. Marsee

J. Marsee

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 2 R · 1.100 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcher

8.1 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CIN beat MIA 6-3. Steer's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

MIA vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 9th Inning · 2-2
+25pp→ 38% WP

Steer · struck out looking.

CINBottom 9th Inning · 2-2
+8pp→ 45% WP

Marsee · flied out to left.

CINTop 10th Inning · 3-2
+21pp→ 68% WP

Lowe · singled to center, Steer scored, Stephenson to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
CIN00000000246
MIA00020000013

Period scoring

CIN won 2 · MIA won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Lopez 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Stewart 1

4
1

Inn 10

McLain 2

Pauley 1

CIN
MIA

Play-by-play · 645 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    CIN 6·MIA 3

  2. B10

    ·

    CIN 6·MIA 3

  3. B10

    Norby grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Pauley out at second.

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 3

    −4pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 3

  5. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 3

  6. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 3

  7. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 3

  8. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 3

  9. B10

    Graham Ashcraft pitches to Connor Norby

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 3

  10. B10

    ·

    CIN 6·MIA 3

  11. B10

    Pauley grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Marsee scored, Lopez out at second.

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 3

    −4pp

  12. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 3

  13. B10

    Graham Ashcraft pitches to Graham Pauley

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 3

  14. B10

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 2

  15. B10

    Lopez singled to right, Marsee to third.

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 2

    +4pp

  16. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 2

  17. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 2

  18. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 2

  19. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 2

  20. B10

    Graham Ashcraft pitches to Otto Lopez

    ·

    CIN 6·MIA 2

  21. B10

    Ashcraft relieved Pagán

    ·

    CIN 6·MIA 2

  22. B10

    Myers in center field.

    CIN 6·MIA 2

  23. B10

    Steer at first base.

    CIN 6·MIA 2

  24. B10

    Friedl in left field.

    CIN 6·MIA 2

  25. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    CIN 6·MIA 2

  26. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    CIN 6·MIA 2

  27. T10

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 2

  28. T10

    Benson flied out to center.

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 2

    +0.7pp

  29. T10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 2

  30. T10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 6·MIA 2

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

6

Runs

3

5

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

7

TB

8

0

HR

0

6

BB

6

8

K

7

15

LOB

23

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 7.5·CIN +119/MIA -144

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIA vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.3± 2.2low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    4.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.3low
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    1.9± 2.3high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Tyler StephensonCIN
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.4± 3.6low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.6%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    51.6%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.7%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.8%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.