TOP 5TH+1PHI
ATH
18-16
01
PHI
15-20
Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s
57.0%
PHI wins · current
Pre-game: 52.7% PHI
ATH 0 · 1 PHI
PHI +1
Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 7.36
L. Severino
2-2 · 4.46 ERA
vs
C. Sanchez
2-2 · 2.90 ERA
Line movement
200 snapshots
PHI spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 8.5 · +0.5
PHI no-vig %
63.1%
open 61.1% · +2.0
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.3%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
52.7%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.5%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.8%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.83 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-1.97
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+146
Close price
+159
Open no-vig
38.9%
Close no-vig
36.9%
Market faded the model hard
Player projections
PHI vs ATH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 42 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.3± 4.0low
- Cristopher SanchezPHI7.1± 2.5low
- Luis SeverinoATH5.7± 2.8low
Hits
- Carlos CortesATH1.3± 0.8high
- Jacob WilsonATH1.3± 0.7high
- Brandon MarshPHI1.2± 0.8high
Total bases
- Carlos CortesATH2.2± 2.3high
- Kyle SchwarberPHI2.1± 2.9high
- Brandon MarshPHI2.0± 2.5high
RBIs
- Brent RookerATH0.9± 2.3medium
- Jonah HeimATH0.7± 2.1low
- Brandon MarshPHI0.7± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Jesus LuzardoPHI3.3± 4.1low
- Jacob LopezATH3.1± 2.4low
- Aaron NolaPHI3.0± 2.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
The One modelTossup
● Live0ATH
Athletics
18-16
vs53%PHI
PHI★
Phillies
15-20
1ATH 47%win prob53% PHI
PHI 1505 · ATH 1510Box score→
