Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATH at PHI?

The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — May 5, 2026

FINAL+8PHI

ATH

18-17

PHI

16-20

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

36,069 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

PHI no-vig %

63.1%

open 61.1% · +2.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
52.1%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.9%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.7%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.97

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+146

Close price

+159

Open no-vig

38.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATH at PHI?: The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

PHI vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.7± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.4± 2.8medium
Zack WheelerPHI
6.3± 2.6low

Hits

Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Nick KurtzATH
1.2± 0.8high
Zack GelofATH
1.2± 0.5high

Total bases

Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.9± 3.8high
Nick KurtzATH
2.5± 2.7high
Zack GelofATH
2.3± 1.6high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
1.0± 1.7high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.0± 2.0high
Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.4± 2.0medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 2.2medium
Aaron CivaleATH
2.8± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

PHI

.749

OPS

◀

.719

.696

.329

OBP

◀

.319

.300

4.67

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.27

5.00

Team ERA

4.19

▶

4.06

1.45

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

ATH 1 · PHI 9 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
PHI	0	0	1	0	0	0	5	3	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WilsonSS	.296	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. RookerDH	.153	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Kurtz1B	.244	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. ThomasRF	.263	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
Z. Gelof3B	.256	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
T. SoderstromLF	.216	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
A. WynnsC	.077	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. HernaizSS	.212	3	0	0	1	0	1	2
B. Harris3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		30	1	4	1	0	4	12

Player

.296

.153

.244

.263

.256

.216

.077

.212

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. SeverinoSP	5.0	7	1	1	2	3	102
S. BarlowRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
M. Leiter Jr.RP	0.2	3	4	4	1	1	22
T. FergusonRP	1.1	4	4	4	0	1	26
Team	8.0	14	9	9	3	6	158

Player

L. SeverinoSP

5.0

102

S. BarlowRP

1.0

M. Leiter Jr.RP

0.2

T. FergusonRP

1.1

Team

8.0

158

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.241	5	2	2	1	0	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.205	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Harper1B	.286	4	3	3	3	2	1	0
A. GarciaRF	.238	3	0	0	1	0	1	1
B. MarshLF	.322	5	1	3	0	0	0	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.250	4	1	1	2	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.210	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
A. Bohm3B	.161	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. CrawfordCF	.269	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
Team		37	9	14	9	3	3	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SanchezSP	8.0	3	0	0	1	10	97
J. DuranRP	1.0	1	1	1	3	2	27
Team	9.0	4	1	1	4	12	124

Team

ATH

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

PHI vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.