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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+11HOU
HOU

HOU

6-3

11
0
ATH

ATH

2-6

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
12,015 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

ATH no-vig %

51.7%

open 51.7%

+2.0+1.0ATH SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL55.7%47.7%ATH NO-VIG %MODEL 48.6%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 11 · ATH 0 (by 11)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU20230301011
ATH0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Apr 4·Final/SeriesATH wins series 2-1/VegasATH -118

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Athletics and beat them, 11–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

HOU -1.5 cashed (won by 11). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Cam Smith

Cam Smith

RF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Carlos Cortes

Carlos Cortes

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU6-3
11
0
ATH2-6
HOU6-3·ATH2-6
HOU

HOU

6-3

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
2-33120010
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
1-11111040
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-44011010
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
0-44100010
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
3-55332111
SPRINT25.920
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
3-44232021
SPRINT28.688
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
3-55132010
SPRINT25.513
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
1-55110001
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
3-66032001
SPRINT22.90
N. AllenN. AllenSS
0-33000001
C. SmithC. SmithRF
1-11111100
SPRINT29.395
Team18-41411118112135
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. ImaiT. Imai★SP
5.2300390
K. TengK. TengRP
2.1200030
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.0000010
Team9.05003130
ATH

ATH

2-6

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
0-33000003
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-22000012
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-33000012
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
0-44000000
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-33000002
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
2-44020002
SPRINT27.969
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-33010001
SPRINT25.920
D. ClarkeD. Clarke★CF
0-33000001
A. WynnsA. WynnsC
0-11000000
C. CortesC. CortesRF
1-11010000
SPRINT25.716
D. HernaizD. HernaizSS
0-11000000
Team5-31310500313
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. MoralesL. Morales★SP
3.0855601
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
2.0322200
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
1.0433210
L. MedinaL. MedinaRP
2.0211241
M. KellyM. KellyRP
1.0100100
Team9.01811111352

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • T. Imai
    94 pitches·34% CSW
    • SL
      49%·86.6 mph·46% whiff
    • FF
      44%·94.1 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      4%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·76.1 mph·— whiff
  • K. Teng
    33 pitches·36% CSW
    • ST
      39%·86.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      36%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      9%·84.2 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Okert
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      63%·79.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      31%·90.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      6%·89.6 mph·— whiff

ATH

  • L. Morales
    77 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      34%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·85.5 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      12%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Medina
    43 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      51%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·98.5 mph·44% whiff
    • SL
      9%·89.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      7%·90.0 mph·100% whiff
  • H. Harris
    34 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      59%·95.1 mph·9% whiff
    • CU
      24%·74.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·92.3 mph·— whiff
  • E. Alvarado
    29 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      59%·98.8 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      24%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.1 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Kelly
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • ST
      71%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

18

Hits

5

11

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATH wins series 2-1

Apr 4HOUHOU4@ATHATH11
Apr 4HOUHOU11@ATHATH0today
Apr 5HOUHOU10@ATHATH12

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 4HOUHOU4@ATHATH11
Apr 4HOUHOU11@ATHATH0today
Apr 5HOUHOU10@ATHATH12
Jun 6ATHATH@HOUHOUupcoming
Jun 6ATHATH@HOUHOUupcoming
Jun 7ATHATH@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 22ATHATH@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 22ATHATH@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 23ATHATH@HOUHOUupcoming
Sep 25HOUHOU@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 26HOUHOU@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 27HOUHOU@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 27HOUHOU@ATHATHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU-10250%
ATHATH-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 3rd Inning

HOUHOU
C. Smith

C. Smith

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

T. Imai

T. Imai

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

ATHATH
C. Cortes

C. Cortes

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

L. Medina

L. Medina

RP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

HOU beat ATH 11-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATH vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 49% WP

Correa · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Altuve out at second, Alvarez to third.

HOUTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 68% WP

Meyers · hit by pitch.

HOUTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+11pp→ 77% WP

Walker · homered to left center (383 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU20230301011
ATH0000000000

Period scoring

HOU won 5 · ATH won 0

2
0

Inn 1

Altuve 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Walker 1

3
0

Inn 4

Diaz 2

0
0

Inn 5

3
0

Inn 6

Loperfido 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Smith 1

0
0

Inn 9

HOU
ATH

Play-by-play · 666 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  2. B9

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  3. B9

    Muncy struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  11. B9

    Steven Okert pitches to Max Muncy

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  12. B9

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  13. B9

    Hernaiz lined out to center.

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  17. B9

    Steven Okert pitches to Darell Hernaiz

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  18. B9

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  19. B9

    Wilson popped out to first.

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  26. B9

    Steven Okert pitches to Jacob Wilson

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  27. B9

    Okert relieved Teng

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    HOU 11·ATH 0

  30. T9

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 0

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

11

Runs

0

18

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

30

TB

5

2

HR

0

13

BB

3

5

K

13

37

LOB

12

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 9.5·HOU -102/ATH -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

ATH vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    51.0%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.5%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.7%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 5, 26sim 99
    155
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 97
    169
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    298
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    258
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 95
    138
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    174
    28(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs