Matchup orbital

4
ATH
ATH
13-12
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME

5
SEA
SEA
11-15
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
SEA wins
ATH 4 · SEA 5 (by 1)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked SEA +3pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATH | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
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ATH13-12
ATH
11-15SEA
SEA

Recap · MLB
eattle Mariners held off Athletics, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.
ATH +1.5 cashed (SEA won by 1). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page


Current series
ATH wins series 2-1
ATH6@
SEA4
ATH5@
SEA2
ATH4@
SEA5todaySeason series
ATH leads series 2-1
ATH6@
SEA4
ATH5@
SEA2
ATH4@
SEA5today
SEA@
ATHupcoming
SEA@
ATHupcoming
SEA@
ATHupcoming
ATH@
SEAupcoming
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ATHupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SEA -1.5
Total
7.5
Defensive · -1.0 vs avg
Moneyline
ATH+15739%
SEA-19266%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 2 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
7.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 38pp · Bottom 9th Inning
ATH
N. Kurtz
1BBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

A. Civale
SPStarting pitcher
5.1 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB
SEA
C. Raleigh
CBatter of the game
3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

L. Gilbert
SPStarting pitcher
4.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB
How it ended
SEA beat ATH 5-4. Naylor's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (38pp).
Win probability
SEA vs ATH
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactKurtz · homered to center (438 feet).
Crawford · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Rivas out at second.
Naylor · singled to left, Raleigh scored, Rodríguez to second.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATH | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Period scoring
ATH won 1 · SEA won 2
Inn 1
Soderstrom 1
Arozarena 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Wilson 1
Raleigh 1
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Refsnyder 1
Inn 7
Rodr 1
Inn 8
Inn 9
Kurtz 1
Naylor 1
Game flow · key plays
Naylor singled to left, Raleigh scored, Rodríguez to second.
ATH 4·SEA 5
+38pp
Crawford grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Rivas out at second.
ATH 4·SEA 4
−18pp
Kurtz homered to center (438 feet).
ATH 4·SEA 4
−37pp
Garver doubled to center, Naylor to third.
ATH 3·SEA 2
+15pp
Raleigh homered to right (405 feet).
ATH 3·SEA 2
+13pp
Wilson doubled to left, Cortes scored.
ATH 3·SEA 1
−13pp
Team stats
ATH
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
9
Hits
14
0
Errors
2
4
Runs
5
Player box score

ATH
13-12

N. Kurtz★
1B
OPS
1.850
H-AB
2-4
R
2
RBI
1
HR
1

S. Langeliers★
C
OPS
0.400
H-AB
1-5
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0

C. Cortes★
RF
OPS
0.800
H-AB
2-5
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0

T. Soderstrom★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0

J. Wilson★
SS
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0

J. McNeil★
2B
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0

M. Muncy★
3B
OPS
0.333
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

L. Butler★
RF
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

A. Wynns★
C
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
9-33
R
4
RBI
4
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() N. Kurtz★1B | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.850 |
![]() S. Langeliers★C | 1-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
![]() C. Cortes★RF | 2-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.800 |
![]() T. Soderstrom★LF | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() J. Wilson★SS | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
![]() J. McNeil★2B | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 |
![]() M. Muncy★3B | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
![]() L. Butler★RF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
![]() A. Wynns★C | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| Team | 9-33 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — |

A. Civale★
SP
IP
5.1
H
6
ER
3
K
5
B. Basso
RP
IP
0.2
H
1
ER
0
K
0

M. Leiter Jr.
RP
IP
1.0
H
2
ER
1
K
1

J. Sterner
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
2

J. Kuhnel
RP
IP
0.2
H
4
ER
1
K
0
IP
8.2
H
14
ER
5
K
8
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() A. Civale★SP | 5.1 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
B. BassoRP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
![]() M. Leiter Jr.RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
![]() J. SternerRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
![]() J. KuhnelRP | 0.2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 8.2 | 14 | 5 | 8 |

SEA
11-15

J.P. Crawford★
SS
OPS
0.800
H-AB
2-5
R
2
RBI
0
HR
0

C. Raleigh★
C
OPS
1.800
H-AB
3-5
R
2
RBI
1
HR
1

J. Rodriguez★
CF
OPS
0.800
H-AB
2-5
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0

J. Naylor★
1B
OPS
1.200
H-AB
3-5
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0

R. Arozarena★
LF
OPS
1.333
H-AB
2-3
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0

L. Raley★
RF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

D. Canzone★
RF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

C. Young★
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

L. Rivas★
3B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

M. Garver
C
OPS
1.000
H-AB
1-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

R. Refsnyder
RF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
H-AB
14-37
R
5
RBI
5
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() J.P. Crawford★SS | 2-5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.800 |
![]() C. Raleigh★C | 3-5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.800 |
![]() J. Rodriguez★CF | 2-5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.800 |
![]() J. Naylor★1B | 3-5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.200 |
![]() R. Arozarena★LF | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.333 |
![]() L. Raley★RF | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() D. Canzone★RF | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() C. Young★2B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() L. Rivas★3B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() M. GarverC | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
![]() R. RefsnyderRF | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 14-37 | 5 | 5 | 1 | — |

L. Gilbert★
SP
IP
4.0
H
6
ER
3
K
3

J. Ferrer
RP
IP
2.0
H
2
ER
0
K
2

M. Brash
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
0

C. Criswell
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
1

A. Munoz
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
1
K
1
IP
9.0
H
9
ER
4
K
7
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() L. Gilbert★SP | 4.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
![]() J. FerrerRP | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
![]() M. BrashRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() C. CriswellRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
![]() A. MunozRP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
Betting line
SEA -1.5·O/U 7.5·ATH +157/SEA -192