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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7MIA
CIN

CIN

8-5

1
8
MIA

MIA

8-5

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
9,578 attended

Line movement

13 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

+2.0+1.0MIA SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL57.2%49.2%MIA NO-VIG %MODEL 49.4%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

CIN 1 · MIA 8 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0000100001
MIA100301128

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 7, 26sim 100
    176
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 97
    258
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 97
    113
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 97
    251
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 97
    143
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 97
    133
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Thu, Apr 9·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasMIA -126

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off Cincinnati Reds, 8–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIA +1.5 cashed (CIN lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Sal Stewart

Sal Stewart

1B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Owen Caissie

Owen Caissie

RF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN8-5
1
8
MIA8-5
CIN8-5·MIA8-5
CIN

CIN

8-5

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-55000002
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
2-55020001
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-55010003
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
1-33111111
SPRINT26.530
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-33000010
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
0-33000011
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT28.483
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT2744
P.J. HigginsP.J. Higgins★C
0-33000001
Team7-3535171149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. LowderR. Lowder★SP
5.1854220
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
0.2000010
J. FrancoJ. FrancoRP
2.0432320
Team8.01286550
MIA

MIA

8-5

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-44100010
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-33110021
SPRINT2872
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
2-55122000
SPRINT27.354
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-44110010
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-33110010
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
3-44233001
SPRINT28.586
G. ConineG. Conine★LF
0-22000000
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
3-44032001
SPRINT28.381
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
1-44110002
H. HernandezH. HernandezLF
0-22000000
Team12-35358127055
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MeyerM. Meyer★SP
5.0411341
A. BenderA. BenderRP
1.0100010
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
3.0200140
Team9.0711491

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • R. Lowder
    95 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      36%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·84.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      21%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·84.6 mph·29% whiff
  • J. Franco
    43 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      65%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      26%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      9%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Burke
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      63%·96.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      25%·85.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.0 mph·100% whiff

MIA

  • M. Meyer
    87 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      25%·90.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      24%·88.3 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      21%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·88.1 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Phillips
    37 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      27%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      24%·84.7 mph·71% whiff
    • FF
      16%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      16%·88.2 mph·80% whiff
    • ST
      16%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Bender
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      42%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      42%·83.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·96.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

12

1

Runs

8

2

Errors

2

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 6CINCIN2@MIAMIA0
Apr 7CINCIN6@MIAMIA3
Apr 8CINCIN4@MIAMIA7
Apr 9CINCIN1@MIAMIA8today

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 6CINCIN2@MIAMIA0
Apr 7CINCIN6@MIAMIA3
Apr 8CINCIN4@MIAMIA7
Apr 9CINCIN1@MIAMIA8today
Aug 14MIAMIA@CINCINupcoming
Aug 15MIAMIA@CINCINupcoming
Aug 16MIAMIA@CINCINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CIN -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CINCIN+10449%
MIAMIA-12656%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 9pp · Top 4th Inning

CINCIN
S. Stewart

S. Stewart

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

R. Lowder

R. Lowder

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

MIAMIA
O. Caissie

O. Caissie

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 2 R · 1.500 OPS

M. Meyer

M. Meyer

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

MIA beat CIN 8-1.

Win probability

MIA vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 68% WP

Lowe · grounded out to second.

CINTop 4th Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 31% WP

Lowe · walked.

MIABottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+7pp→ 86% WP

Lopez · doubled to left, Hicks to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0000100001
MIA10030112—8

Period scoring

CIN won 1 · MIA won 5

0
1

Inn 1

Ram 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Caissie 2

1
0

Inn 5

Stewart 1

0
1

Inn 6

Sanoja 1

0
1

Inn 7

Caissie 1

0
2

Inn 8

Ram 2

0

Inn 9

CIN
MIA

Play-by-play · 563 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  2. T9

    De La Cruz struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  6. T9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Elly De La Cruz

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  7. T9

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  8. T9

    McLain grounded out to third, Benson to second, Myers to third.

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  11. T9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Matt McLain

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  12. T9

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  13. T9

    Friedl struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  19. T9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to TJ Friedl

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  20. T9

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  21. T9

    Benson walked, Myers to second.

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  27. T9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Will Benson

    · ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  28. T9

    Benson hit for Higgins

    ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  29. T9

    ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

  30. T9

    Myers singled to right.

    ·

    CIN 1·MIA 8

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

1

Runs

8

7

Hits

12

2

Errors

2

11

TB

18

1

HR

0

4

BB

5

9

K

5

24

LOB

22

Betting line

CIN -1.5·O/U 8.5·CIN +104/MIA -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

MIA vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    4.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.4%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    51.5%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.5%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.8%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.