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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TEX
SEA

SEA

4-8

2
3
TEX

TEX

6-5

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
22,411 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TEX no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.3%

+2.0+1.0TEX SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL52.3%44.3%TEX NO-VIG %MODEL 49.2%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

SEA 2 · TEX 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA1000100002
TEX000030003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 6, 26sim 98
    255
    23(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    131
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    120
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 96
    171
    28(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    121
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    176
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, Apr 7·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 3-0/VegasSEA -118

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off Seattle Mariners, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

TEX +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Brendan Donovan

Brendan Donovan

3B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Kyle Higashioka

Kyle Higashioka

C

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA4-8
2
3
TEX6-5
SEA4-8·TEX6-5
SEA

SEA

4-8

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
2-44121110
SPRINT25.18
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-44011000
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-44000003
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44000003
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
2-44020002
SPRINT28.175
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-33010011
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-44000000
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT27.662
Team8-3535282129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
8.0633041
Team8.0633041
TEX

TEX

6-5

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-44000000
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-33010000
SPRINT2872
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-33000002
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
0-33000000
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-33110000
SPRINT25.716
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-33111000
SPRINT28.175
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
2-33122101
SPRINT23.91
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-33000000
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-33010001
SPRINT28.891
Team6-2828363104
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. EovaldiN. Eovaldi★SP
6.0622271
J. LatzJ. LatzRP
2.0000020
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.0200000
Team9.0822291

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

2

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 3-0

Apr 7SEASEA1@TEXTEX2
Apr 8SEASEA2@TEXTEX3today
Apr 8SEASEA0@TEXTEX3

Season series

TEX leads series 2-0

Apr 7SEASEA1@TEXTEX2
Apr 8SEASEA2@TEXTEX3today
Apr 8SEASEA0@TEXTEX3
Apr 18TEXTEX5@SEASEA0
Apr 18TEXTEX3@SEASEA7
Apr 19TEXTEX2@SEASEA5
Jul 25SEASEA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 25SEASEA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 26SEASEA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 27SEASEA@TEXTEXupcoming
Sep 9TEXTEX@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 9TEXTEX@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 10TEXTEX@SEASEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SEASEA-11854%
TEXTEX-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 29pp · Bottom 5th Inning

SEASEA
B. Donovan

B. Donovan

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcher

8.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H

TEXTEX
K. Higashioka

K. Higashioka

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

N. Eovaldi

N. Eovaldi

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TEX beat SEA 3-2. Higashioka's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Win probability

TEX vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 4th Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 63% WP

Rodr · íguez reached on infield single to third.

TEXBottom 5th Inning · 2-3
+29pp→ 76% WP

Higashioka · homered to left center (388 feet), Carter scored.

SEATop 9th Inning · 2-3
+16pp→ 38% WP

Crawford · singled to center, Raley to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA1000100002
TEX00003000—3

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · TEX won 1

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
3

Inn 5

Raleigh 1

Higashioka 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SEA
TEX

Play-by-play · 456 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  2. T9

    Donovan grounded out to catcher.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

    +12pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  5. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Brendan Donovan

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  6. T9

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  7. T9

    Young flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

    +11pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  11. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Cole Young

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  12. T9

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  13. T9

    Canzone flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

    +15pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  15. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Dominic Canzone

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  16. T9

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  17. T9

    Crawford singled to center, Raley to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

    −16pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  23. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to J.P. Crawford

    · ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  24. T9

    ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  25. T9

    Raley singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

    −10pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

  30. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Luke Raley

    ·

    SEA 2·TEX 3

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

2

Runs

3

8

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

11

TB

9

1

HR

1

2

BB

0

9

K

4

14

LOB

5

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 8·SEA -118/TEX -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TEX vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.8± 2.4high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Colt EmersonSEA
    0.6± 1.4low

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.9%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    51.4%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.2%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.0%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.