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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TEX
SEA

SEA

4-7

1
2
TEX

TEX

5-5

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
23,901 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TEX no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

+2.0+1.0TEX SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL55.1%47.1%TEX NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

SEA 1 · TEX 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA1000000001
TEX100001002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Apr 6·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 3-0/VegasTEX -115

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off Seattle Mariners, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

TEX +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Cal Raleigh

Cal Raleigh

C

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Corey Seager

Corey Seager

SS

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA4-7
1
2
TEX5-5
SEA4-7·TEX5-5
SEA

SEA

4-7

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
0-44000001
SPRINT25.18
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-33111110
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-33000001
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-44000000
SPRINT23.81
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT26.941
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
0-11000010
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-22000001
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-33000001
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
0-33000001
R. RefsnyderR. RefsnyderDH
0-11000001
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. CrawfordSS
0-11000000
Team2-2828121127
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
6.0622050
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0000020
C. CriswellC. CriswellRP
1.0100200
Team8.0722270
TEX

TEX

5-5

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-33000010
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT2872
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
2-33121010
SPRINT24.96
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-44011001
SPRINT2744
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-33010001
SPRINT25.716
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-33000001
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
0-33000002
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-33000001
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
2-33020000
SPRINT25.920
Team7-2929272027
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. deGromJ. deGrom★SP
5.0111161
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
1.0000100
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
0.2100010
C. WinnC. WinnRP
0.1000000
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000000
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.0000000
Team9.0211271

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

TEX

  • J. Junis
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      40%·81.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      20%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

7

1

Runs

2

1

Errors

1

Current series

TEX wins series 3-0

Apr 7SEASEA1@TEXTEX2today
Apr 8SEASEA2@TEXTEX3
Apr 8SEASEA0@TEXTEX3

Season series

TEX leads series 1-0

Apr 7SEASEA1@TEXTEX2today
Apr 8SEASEA2@TEXTEX3
Apr 8SEASEA0@TEXTEX3
Apr 18TEXTEX5@SEASEA0
Apr 18TEXTEX3@SEASEA7
Apr 19TEXTEX2@SEASEA5
Jul 25SEASEA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 25SEASEA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 26SEASEA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 27SEASEA@TEXTEXupcoming
Sep 9TEXTEX@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 9TEXTEX@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 10TEXTEX@SEASEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SEASEA-10551%
TEXTEX-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 6th Inning

SEASEA
C. Raleigh

C. Raleigh

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 6 H

TEXTEX
C. Seager

C. Seager

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

J. deGrom

J. deGrom

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TEX beat SEA 2-1. Burger's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

TEX vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 54% WP

Raleigh · homered to right (418 feet).

TEXBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+20pp→ 77% WP

Burger · doubled to left, Seager scored.

TEXTop 9th Inning · 1-2
+18pp→ 100% WP

Naylor · grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Rodríguez out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA1000000001
TEX10000100—2

Period scoring

SEA won 0 · TEX won 1

1
1

Inn 1

Raleigh 1

Seager 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Burger 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SEA
TEX

Play-by-play · 508 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  2. T9

    Naylor grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Rodríguez out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

    +18pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  5. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Josh Naylor

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  6. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  7. T9

    Rodríguez hit by pitch.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

    −9pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  9. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Julio Rodriguez

    ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  10. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  11. T9

    Raleigh grounded out to first.

    ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

    +3pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  13. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Cal Raleigh

    ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  14. T9

    Junis relieved Garcia

    ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  15. T9

    Duran at third base.

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  16. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  17. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  18. B8

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  19. B8

    Burger grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  20. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  21. B8

    Seager stole second.

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  22. B8

    Seager stole second.

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  23. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  24. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  25. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  27. B8

    Cooper Criswell pitches to Jake Burger

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  28. B8

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  29. B8

    Seager intentionally walked.

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    SEA 1·TEX 2

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

1

Runs

2

2

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

5

TB

10

1

HR

0

2

BB

2

7

K

7

7

LOB

9

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 8·SEA -105/TEX -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    131
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    122
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    151
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    120
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 95
    53
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    153
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

TEX vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.8± 2.4high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Colt EmersonSEA
    0.6± 1.4low

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.7%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    50.3%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.2%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.9%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872