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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2MIN
DET

DET

4-7

2
4
MIN

MIN

5-6

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
12,341 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 6.5

open O/U 6.5

MIN no-vig %

39.7%

open 39.7%

+2.0+1.0MIN SPREADO/U 7.0O/U 6.0TOTAL43.7%35.7%MIN NO-VIG %MODEL 38.9%May 4, 10 AMMay 25, 5 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

DET 2 · MIN 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0000001012
MIN000040004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Apr 7·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 4-0/VegasDET -171

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins held off Detroit Tigers, 4–2.

MIN +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Spencer Torkelson

Spencer Torkelson

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Josh Bell

Josh Bell

DH

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET4-7
2
4
MIN5-6
DET4-7·MIN5-6
DET

DET

4-7

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-33000001
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
2-55022001
SPRINT28.278
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-55010001
SPRINT25.18
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-44000013
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-44000001
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-33010011
SPRINT26.941
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
2-33120011
SPRINT26.123
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
1-33010002
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
2-33120001
SPRINT27.251
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-22000001
K. CarpenterK. CarpenterRF
0-11000001
Team9-36362920314
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SkubalT. Skubal★SP
4.2844270
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.1000010
C. SeaboldC. SeaboldRP
2.0200120
Team8.010443100
MIN

MIN

5-6

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-44110011
SPRINT29.597
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-33100010
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44111001
SPRINT28.688
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
1-44112001
SPRINT26.326
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
2-44020002
SPRINT24.22
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
3-44031001
SPRINT25.18
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-44010002
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-33000011
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44010001
Team10-343441040310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BradleyT. Bradley★SP
6.16110100
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0100020
C. SandsC. SandsRP
0.1000200
E. OrzeE. OrzeRP
0.2211020
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
0.2000100
Team9.09223140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • T. Skubal
    95 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      42%·96.7 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      27%·87.3 mph·42% whiff
    • SL
      19%·89.4 mph·55% whiff
    • SI
      11%·96.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      1%·80.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Seabold
    35 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      46%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      31%·82.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      20%·83.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      3%·87.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Holton
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      38%·83.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      19%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·79.1 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·77.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·89.6 mph·0% whiff

MIN

  • T. Bradley
    104 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      46%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      25%·90.5 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      17%·88.2 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      12%·81.0 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Orze
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FS
      79%·82.3 mph·36% whiff
    • FF
      21%·90.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Topa
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      57%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·86.3 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      7%·82.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rogers
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      50%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      50%·76.5 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Sands
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      58%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·85.8 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      17%·86.1 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      8%·78.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

10

2

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIN wins series 4-0

Apr 6DETDET3@MINMIN7
Apr 7DETDET2@MINMIN4today
Apr 8DETDET6@MINMIN8
Apr 9DETDET1@MINMIN3

Season series

MIN leads series 2-0

Apr 6DETDET3@MINMIN7
Apr 7DETDET2@MINMIN4today
Apr 8DETDET6@MINMIN8
Apr 9DETDET1@MINMIN3
Jun 9MINMIN@DETDETupcoming
Jun 10MINMIN@DETDETupcoming
Jun 11MINMIN@DETDETupcoming
Aug 31DETDET@MINMINupcoming
Sep 1DETDET@MINMINupcoming
Sep 2DETDET@MINMINupcoming
Sep 7MINMIN@DETDETupcoming
Sep 8MINMIN@DETDETupcoming
Sep 9MINMIN@DETDETupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET-17163%
MINMIN+14141%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 5th Inning

DETDET
S. Torkelson

S. Torkelson

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

MINMIN
J. Bell

J. Bell

DH

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

T. Bradley

T. Bradley

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 10 K · 1 ER · 6 H

How it ended

MIN beat DET 4-2.

Win probability

MIN vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 51% WP

Martin · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Buxton out at second, Lee to third.

MINBottom 5th Inning · 0-3
+16pp→ 89% WP

Jeffers · doubled to right, Keaschall and Martin scored.

MINTop 9th Inning · 2-4
+7pp→ 100% WP

Dingler · grounded out to shortstop.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0000001012
MIN00004000—4

Period scoring

DET won 1 · MIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
4

Inn 5

Jeffers 2

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

McGonigle 1

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

McGonigle 1

DET
MIN

Play-by-play · 587 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  2. T9

    Dingler grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

    +7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  6. T9

    Justin Topa pitches to Dillon Dingler

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  7. T9

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  8. T9

    Greene walked.

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

    −3pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  16. T9

    Justin Topa pitches to Riley Greene

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  17. T9

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  18. T9

    Torres grounded out to second, McGonigle to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

    +6pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  23. T9

    Justin Topa pitches to Gleyber Torres

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  24. T9

    Topa relieved Orze

    ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  25. T9

    ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  26. T9

    McGonigle doubled to right, Báez scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

    −6pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 2·MIN 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    DET 1·MIN 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    DET 1·MIN 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 1·MIN 4

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

2

Runs

4

9

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

12

TB

13

0

HR

0

3

BB

3

14

K

10

21

LOB

21

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET -171/MIN +141

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+141

Close price

+141

Open no-vig

39.7%

Close no-vig

39.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MIN vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    48.2%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.6%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.4%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 7, 26sim 98
    14
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 97
    15
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 96
    304
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    246
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 95
    24
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 94
    260
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs