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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2BAL
BAL

BAL

6-6

5
3
CHW

CHW

4-8

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
10,133 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CHW no-vig %

42.8%

open 42.8%

+2.0+1.0CHW SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL46.8%38.8%CHW NO-VIG %MODEL 38.9%May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 5 · CHW 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0020020015
CHW0200100003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Apr 8·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 3-0/VegasBAL -149

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 5–3.

BAL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Taylor Ward

Taylor Ward

LF

1.600OPS

5-4

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Dustin Harris

Dustin Harris

LF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL6-6
5
3
CHW4-8
BAL6-6·CHW4-8
BAL

BAL

6-6

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-44210011
SPRINT28.175
T. WardT. Ward★LF
4-55142000
SPRINT27.457
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-55001003
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-55110002
SPRINT25.29
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-22110010
SPRINT27.662
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
0-33000010
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-11001020
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-44000001
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-44000000
Team7-3333574057
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. BradishK. Bradish★SP
5.0632370
T. WellsT. WellsRP
1.0000110
G. WolframG. WolframRP
1.0100010
A. NunezA. NunezRP
1.0000010
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000220
Team9.07326120
CHW

CHW

4-8

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-44100011
SPRINT2744
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
1-44010012
SPRINT27.148
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-44010012
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-33000012
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-33110002
SPRINT26.632
D. HarrisD. Harris★LF
1-33111010
SPRINT28.688
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
1-44011001
SPRINT29.597
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
1-33010002
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
1-33010010
D. HillD. HillRF
0-11000000
Team7-32323720612
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BurkeS. Burke★SP
5.0222230
L. SimsL. SimsRP
0.1221110
B. HudsonB. HudsonRP
0.2000000
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
1.0100020
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
0.2000100
T. SchweitzerT. SchweitzerRP
1.1211110
Team9.0754570

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • K. Bradish
    96 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      34%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·86.1 mph·23% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.6 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      14%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Wells
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·86.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      23%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      55%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      23%·87.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      18%·88.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      5%·86.8 mph·— whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • ST
      40%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      30%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      30%·94.8 mph·33% whiff
  • A. Nunez
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      40%·96.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      40%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·85.7 mph·0% whiff

CHW

  • S. Burke
    92 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.6 mph·21% whiff
    • KC
      24%·79.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·86.2 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      12%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·85.8 mph·— whiff
  • T. Schweitzer
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      42%·87.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      31%·93.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      19%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Sims
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      38%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·83.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      29%·93.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      29%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      29%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hicks
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      46%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      46%·87.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      8%·96.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hudson
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      70%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·78.7 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      10%·81.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

5

Runs

3

2

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 3-0

Apr 6BALBAL2@CHWCHW1
Apr 7BALBAL4@CHWCHW2
Apr 8BALBAL5@CHWCHW3today

Season series

BAL leads series 3-0

Apr 6BALBAL2@CHWCHW1
Apr 7BALBAL4@CHWCHW2
Apr 8BALBAL5@CHWCHW3today
Jun 29CHWCHW@BALBALupcoming
Jun 30CHWCHW@BALBALupcoming
Jul 1CHWCHW@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL-14960%
CHWCHW+12345%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 6th Inning

BALBAL
T. Ward

T. Ward

LF

Batter of the game

4-for-5 · 1 R · 1.600 OPS

K. Bradish

K. Bradish

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

CHWCHW
D. Harris

D. Harris

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BAL beat CHW 5-3. Beavers's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 3rd Inning · 0-2
+17pp→ 43% WP

Henderson · walked.

BALTop 6th Inning · 4-3
+19pp→ 72% WP

Beavers · hit sacrifice fly to right, O'Neill scored, Mountcastle to third.

BALBottom 7th Inning · 4-3
+18pp→ 78% WP

Hill · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Montgomery out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0020020015
CHW0200100003

Period scoring

BAL won 3 · CHW won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Harris 1

2
0

Inn 3

Ward 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Montgomery 1

2
0

Inn 6

Beavers 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Ward 1

BAL
CHW

Play-by-play · 628 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  3. B9

    Montgomery grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

    −11pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  5. B9

    Rico Garcia pitches to Colson Montgomery

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  6. B9

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  7. B9

    Vargas walked, Peters to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

    +5pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  14. B9

    Rico Garcia pitches to Miguel Vargas

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  15. B9

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  16. B9

    Murakami struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

    −6pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  22. B9

    Rico Garcia pitches to Munetaka Murakami

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  23. B9

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  24. B9

    Meidroth struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

    −7pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 5·CHW 3

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

5

Runs

3

7

Hits

7

2

Errors

0

12

TB

9

0

HR

0

5

BB

6

7

K

12

14

LOB

21

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 7.5·BAL -149/CHW +123

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 7, 26sim 97
    62
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    246
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 96
    27
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 96
    63
    9(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    14
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 95
    24
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

CHW vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    48.0%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.9%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.5%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Luisangel AcunaCHW · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Derek HillCHW · RF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Dustin HarrisHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688