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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5STL
STL

STL

7-5

6
1
WSH

WSH

4-8

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
12,686 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

WSH no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

+2.0+1.0WSH SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL50.8%42.8%WSH NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 6 · WSH 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0200101026
WSH0010000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 5, 26sim 97
    304
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    14
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    15
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    62
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    307
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 93
    61
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Wed, Apr 8·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1/VegasSTL -126

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 6–1.

STL -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson

1B

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
James Wood

James Wood

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL7-5
6
1
WSH4-8
STL7-5·WSH4-8
STL

STL

7-5

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
0-44100011
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-22110020
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
3-44133010
SPRINT25.513
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-44111112
SPRINT28.891
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-11000020
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-55000002
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
0-44000001
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT27.354
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
1-44110002
Y. PozoY. PozoC
1-22012000
Team8-3434686179
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. McGreevyM. McGreevy★SP
6.0411010
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
1.2000110
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
0.1000000
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.0000000
Team9.0411120
WSH

WSH

4-8

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
2-44020000
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-44011000
SPRINT26.735
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-33000000
SPRINT2872
D. LileD. Lile★LF
0-33000010
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-33000000
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-33000001
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
0-33000001
D. MillasD. Millas★C
0-33000000
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-33110000
SPRINT29.496
J. VivasJ. Vivas3B
0-11000000
SPRINT26.838
Team4-3030141012
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MikolasM. Mikolas★SP
3.0522330
B. LordB. LordRP
3.0111021
C. PerezC. PerezRP
1.0111210
C. HenryC. HenryRP
1.2022130
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
0.1100100
Team9.0866791

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • M. McGreevy
    91 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      30%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·86.0 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      15%·77.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      12%·85.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      12%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Svanson
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      61%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      73%·96.3 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      20%·82.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·89.2 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • M. Mikolas
    55 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      25%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·92.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      15%·76.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.6 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.0 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      13%·81.4 mph·20% whiff
  • B. Lord
    52 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      54%·95.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      19%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·86.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      4%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Henry
    43 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      60%·93.2 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      30%·80.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      9%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Perez
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • CU
      38%·85.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      29%·95.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SV
      21%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·96.4 mph·— whiff
  • P. Poulin
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      47%·80.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      40%·77.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·90.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

4

6

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

Apr 6STLSTL6@WSHWSH9
Apr 7STLSTL7@WSHWSH6
Apr 8STLSTL6@WSHWSH1today

Season series

STL leads series 2-1

Apr 6STLSTL6@WSHWSH9
Apr 7STLSTL7@WSHWSH6
Apr 8STLSTL6@WSHWSH1today
Sep 19WSHWSH@STLSTLupcoming
Sep 19WSHWSH@STLSTLupcoming
Sep 20WSHWSH@STLSTLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL-12656%
WSHWSH+10449%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 2nd Inning

STLSTL
A. Burleson

A. Burleson

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.550 OPS

M. McGreevy

M. McGreevy

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 4 H

WSHWSH
J. Wood

J. Wood

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

STL beat WSH 6-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

WSH vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+11pp→ 55% WP

Wood · singled to center.

STLTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+16pp→ 74% WP

Burleson · singled to center, Church scored and Saggese scored, Herrera to second.

STLTop 5th Inning · 3-1
+11pp→ 76% WP

Walker · homered to center (405 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0200101026
WSH0010000001

Period scoring

STL won 4 · WSH won 1

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Burleson 2

0
1

Inn 3

Garc 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Walker 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Burleson 1

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Pozo 2

STL
WSH

Play-by-play · 584 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    STL 6·WSH 1

  2. B9

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  3. B9

    Lile grounded out to first.

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  10. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Daylen Lile

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  11. B9

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  12. B9

    Vivas grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  19. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Jorbit Vivas

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  20. B9

    Vivas hit for House

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  21. B9

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  22. B9

    García Jr. grounded out to third.

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  26. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Luis Garcia Jr.

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  27. B9

    O'Brien relieved Bruihl

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    STL 6·WSH 1

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    STL 6·WSH 1

  30. T9

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 1

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

6

Runs

1

8

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

11

TB

4

1

HR

0

7

BB

1

9

K

2

18

LOB

11

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 8.5·STL -126/WSH +104

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

WSH vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Andre PallanteSTL
    2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    49.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.7%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.3%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872