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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2ATL
ATL

ATL

14-7

3
1
PHI

PHI

8-12

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
43,423 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

PHI no-vig %

54.3%

open 54.3%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL58.3%50.3%PHI NO-VIG %May 2, 4 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 3 · PHI 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0030000003
PHI0100000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 6, 26sim 97
    53
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    131
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    154
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 95
    121
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    122
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 94
    120
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Apr 18·Final/SeriesATL wins series 3-0/VegasPHI -132

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 3–1.

ATL +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Ozzie Albies

Ozzie Albies

2B

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Felix Reyes

Felix Reyes

LF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL14-7
3
1
PHI8-12
ATL14-7·PHI8-12
ATL

ATL

14-7

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-44010011
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-55110001
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
2-44120010
SPRINT27.354
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44110011
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
2-55021002
SPRINT27.765
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-44012002
SPRINT26.428
E. WhiteE. White★CF
0-44000001
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
2-44020002
J. MateoJ. Mateo★SS
0-33000002
Team10-373731030412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SaleC. Sale★SP
7.0511171
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0000010
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0000020
Team9.05111101
PHI

PHI

8-12

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-44000003
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-33000011
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-22000000
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.632
F. ReyesF. Reyes★LF
1-33111101
SPRINT28.278
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
1-33010001
SPRINT28.278
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-22000001
R. MarchanR. MarchanC
0-22000001
D. MooreD. MooreCF
0-11000001
Team5-31311511110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
6.0830180
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
1.0100010
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0100220
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000110
Team9.010304120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • C. Sale
    101 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      52%·78.5 mph·32% whiff
    • FF
      29%·95.7 mph·12% whiff
    • CH
      11%·88.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.4 mph·25% whiff
  • D. Lee
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      60%·84.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      20%·86.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      57%·99.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      36%·96.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      7%·90.9 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    93 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      40%·86.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.1 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      27%·85.3 mph·40% whiff
  • T. Banks
    29 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      41%·86.3 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      21%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Keller
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      43%·96.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      24%·84.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      19%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·86.8 mph·— whiff
  • J. Alvarado
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      64%·99.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      36%·90.9 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

5

3

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

ATL wins series 3-0

Apr 17ATLATL9@PHIPHI0
Apr 18ATLATL3@PHIPHI1today
Apr 19ATLATL4@PHIPHI2

Season series

ATL leads series 2-0

Apr 17ATLATL9@PHIPHI0
Apr 18ATLATL3@PHIPHI1today
Apr 19ATLATL4@PHIPHI2
Apr 24PHIPHI3@ATLATL5
Apr 25PHIPHI8@ATLATL5
Apr 26PHIPHI2@ATLATL6
Sep 4ATLATL@PHIPHIupcoming
Sep 5ATLATL@PHIPHIupcoming
Sep 6ATLATL@PHIPHIupcoming
Sep 7ATLATL@PHIPHIupcoming
Sep 11PHIPHI@ATLATLupcoming
Sep 12PHIPHI@ATLATLupcoming
Sep 13PHIPHI@ATLATLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATLATL+10948%
PHIPHI-13257%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 3rd Inning

ATLATL
O. Albies

O. Albies

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.100 OPS

C. Sale

C. Sale

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

PHIPHI
F. Reyes

F. Reyes

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATL beat PHI 3-1. Dub's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 63% WP

Reyes · homered to right (348 feet).

ATLTop 3rd Inning · 3-1
+20pp→ 74% WP

Dub · ón singled to center, Albies scored and Olson scored, Riley to second.

ATLBottom 5th Inning · 3-1
+8pp→ 80% WP

Marsh · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Sosa out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0030000003
PHI0100000001

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · PHI won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Reyes 1

3
0

Inn 3

Dub 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

ATL
PHI

Play-by-play · 557 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  2. B9

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  3. B9

    Marchán flied out to right.

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  9. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Rafael Marchan

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  10. B9

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  11. B9

    García struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

    −3pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  17. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Adolis Garcia

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  18. B9

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  19. B9

    Harper struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

    −5pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  24. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Bryce Harper

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  25. B9

    R. Suarez relieved Lee

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  28. T9

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

  29. T9

    Riley struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

    +0.6pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 3·PHI 1

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

3

Runs

1

10

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

13

TB

8

0

HR

1

4

BB

1

12

K

10

17

LOB

9

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 7·ATL +109/PHI -132

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Felix ReyesPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

PHI vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.6± 3.2high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.9± 1.6high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.5± 3.7low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.0%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    50.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.2%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.8%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.