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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+12LAD
LAD

LAD

8-2

14
2
TOR

TOR

4-6

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
40,991 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

TOR no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

+2.0+1.0TOR SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL50.8%42.8%TOR NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMJun 2, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 14 · TOR 2 (by 12)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD20211341014
TOR1000000012

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 6, 26sim 87
    88
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 87
    194
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 87
    105
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 87
    89
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 86
    157
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 85
    193
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Apr 6·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1/VegasLAD -126

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 14–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 12). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. FlemingTOR−23.5pp
  2. 2M. ScherzerTOR−18.3pp
  3. 3K. TuckerLAD+16.1pp

LAD · top performer

LAD
Dalton Rushing

Dalton Rushing

C

3.500OPS

4-4

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Kazuma Okamoto

Kazuma Okamoto

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD8-2
14
2
TOR4-6
LAD8-2·TOR4-6
LAD

LAD

8-2

14
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★DH
2-6622110215.5
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-3331102016.1
SPRINT26.123
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-442231114.2
SPRINT24.74
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
2-5522411114.4
SPRINT28.381
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
2-661200033.5
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
2-440220008.5
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-550000012.0
D. RushingD. Rushing◆Multi-HR game★C
4-443422008.5
SPRINT27.867
H. KimH. Kim★SS
2-441200101.1
S. EspinalS. Espinal3B
0-110000000.0
A. CallA. CallLF
0-110000000.0
Team17-4343141713558—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
J. WrobleskiJ. Wrobleski★SP
5.02114209.8
W. KleinW. KleinRP
2.02000200.2
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
1.00000200.0
M. RojasM. RojasSS
1.01111000.1
SPRINT26.123
Team9.0522560—
TOR

TOR

4-6

2
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-221000106.7
SPRINT25.920
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-440000121.7
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-330000110.6
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
2-4402000111.1
SPRINT26.123
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-440110009.1
SPRINT27.354
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-331100102.0
SPRINT26.838
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
0-330000110.6
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
1-330100000.5
SPRINT25.513
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-440010001.7
J. SanchezJ. SanchezRF
0-110000010.0
B. ValenzuelaB. ValenzuelaC
0-110000000.0
Team5-3232252056—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
M. ScherzerM. Scherzer★SP
2.022212118.3
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
1.00000000.5
SPRINT25.513
J. FlemingJ. FlemingRP
3.064421123.5
J. MantiplyJ. MantiplyRP
0.21332112.3
T. NanceT. NanceRP
1.16440311.7
S. MilesS. MilesRP
1.02110110.0
Team9.0171414585—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • J. Wrobleski
    78 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.8 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      38%·86.7 mph·18% whiff
    • FC
      4%·91.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      3%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      1%·83.3 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      1%·78.8 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Klein
    27 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      48%·97.8 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      22%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      19%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Rojas
    18 pitches·11% CSW
    • EP
      94%·53.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FA
      6%·73.8 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Henriquez
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      45%·101.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      27%·101.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·90.7 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • J. Fleming
    77 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      38%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      34%·77.1 mph·21% whiff
    • CH
      23%·81.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      5%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Scherzer
    36 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      56%·92.1 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      17%·75.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      6%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    36 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      39%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      33%·84.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      28%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Mantiply
    25 pitches·12% CSW
    • SI
      52%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·79.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      24%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Miles
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      38%·95.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      25%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·95.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      19%·85.3 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Heineman
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • EP
      73%·49.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FA
      27%·72.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

17

Hits

5

14

Runs

2

0

Errors

2

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

Apr 6LADLAD14@TORTOR2today
Apr 7LADLAD4@TORTOR1
Apr 8LADLAD3@TORTOR4

Season series

LAD lead series 1-0

Apr 6LADLAD14@TORTOR2today
Apr 7LADLAD4@TORTOR1
Apr 8LADLAD3@TORTOR4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-12656%
TORTOR+10449%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 1st Inning

LADLAD
D. Rushing

D. Rushing

C

Batter of the game2-HR game

4-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.500 OPS

J. Wrobleski

J. Wrobleski

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

TORTOR
K. Okamoto

K. Okamoto

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

J. Fleming

J. Fleming

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat TOR 14-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+16pp→ 79% WP

T. Hern · ández homered to left (371 feet), Tucker scored.

TORBottom 1st Inning · 2-1
+8pp→ 30% WP

Clement · singled to right, Springer scored, Okamoto to second.

LADTop 3rd Inning · 4-1
+9pp→ 86% WP

Freeman · homered to right center (438 feet), Ohtani scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD20211341014
TOR1000000012

Period scoring

LAD won 7 · TOR won 1

2
1

Inn 1

Hern 2

Clement 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Freeman 2

1
0

Inn 4

Tucker 1

1
0

Inn 5

Freeland 1

3
0

Inn 6

Pages 2

4
0

Inn 7

Hern 2

1
0

Inn 8

Rushing 1

0
1

Inn 9

Gim 1

LAD
TOR

Play-by-play · 649 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  3. B9

    Schneider grounded out to third.

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  11. B9

    Miguel Rojas pitches to Davis Schneider

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  12. B9

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  13. B9

    Valenzuela fouled out to catcher.

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  16. B9

    Miguel Rojas pitches to Brandon Valenzuela

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  17. B9

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  18. B9

    Giménez grounded out to third, Varsho scored, Heineman to second, Straw to third.

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  22. B9

    Miguel Rojas pitches to Andres Gimenez

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 2

  23. B9

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 1

  24. B9

    Heineman hit by pitch, Straw to second, Varsho to third.

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 1

  26. B9

    Miguel Rojas pitches to Tyler Heineman

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 1

  27. B9

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 1

  28. B9

    Straw walked.

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 14·TOR 1

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

14

Runs

2

17

Hits

5

0

Errors

2

34

TB

6

5

HR

0

5

BB

5

8

K

6

21

LOB

20

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 9·LAD -126/TOR +104

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

TOR vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.6high
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Alex CallLAD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.6± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    47.1%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.6%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.0%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 18 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175