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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3LAD
LAD

LAD

9-2

4
1
TOR

TOR

4-7

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
40,971 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TOR no-vig %

41.7%

open 41.7%

+2.0+1.0TOR SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL45.7%37.7%TOR NO-VIG %MODEL 40.2%May 4, 10 AMJun 2, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 4 · TOR 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0020100014
TOR0000010001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    193
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 90
    192
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 89
    101
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 89
    194
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 89
    105
    12(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 89
    105
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Tue, Apr 7·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1/VegasLAD -156

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 4–1.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1D. SchneiderTOR−26.9pp
  2. 2H. KimLAD+25.4pp
  3. 3A. VesiaLAD+24.4pp

LAD · top performer

LAD
Alex Freeland

Alex Freeland

2B

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Andres Gimenez

Andres Gimenez

SS

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD9-2
4
1
TOR4-7
LAD9-2·TOR4-7
LAD

LAD

9-2

4
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★DH
1-330110202.9
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-550110035.3
SPRINT26.123
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-550010007.6
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-440100007.5
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-440000035.4
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-440100023.5
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-440000014.6
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-3321001225.4
SPRINT28.381
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
3-3323100015.6
SPRINT26.941
Team8-35354840311—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
6.05111604.2
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.000011024.4
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.00000008.9
E. DiazE. DiazRP
1.01001303.5
Team9.06113100—
TOR

TOR

4-7

1
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-440110017.6
SPRINT25.920
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-3300001114.8
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-4400000117.3
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-4401000112.0
SPRINT25.818
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
1-4401000114.7
SPRINT26.123
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-3301001020.6
SPRINT27.354
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-220000013.2
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
2-441200003.0
SPRINT27.560
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
0-3300000212.9
D. SchneiderD. SchneiderLF
0-1100001126.9
T. HeinemanT. HeinemanC
0-110000013.3
Team6-33331610310—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
5.15322507.3
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
1.11000203.5
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.10000206.5
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.02111202.7
Team9.08433110—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • Y. Yamamoto
    97 pitches·25% CSW
    • FS
      27%·91.3 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      24%·95.6 mph·30% whiff
    • FC
      19%·91.1 mph·10% whiff
    • CU
      13%·76.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.7 mph·67% whiff
  • E. Diaz
    23 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      48%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Vesia
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      80%·92.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      20%·83.7 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Treinen
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      60%·96.1 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      30%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.5 mph·— whiff

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    84 pitches·24% CSW
    • FS
      50%·84.4 mph·26% whiff
    • FF
      46%·94.4 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      4%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Varland
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      35%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      26%·91.2 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      17%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • ST
      55%·83.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      40%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.8 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • FS
      57%·89.8 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      36%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·97.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

2

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

Apr 6LADLAD14@TORTOR2
Apr 7LADLAD4@TORTOR1today
Apr 8LADLAD3@TORTOR4

Season series

LAD lead series 2-0

Apr 6LADLAD14@TORTOR2
Apr 7LADLAD4@TORTOR1today
Apr 8LADLAD3@TORTOR4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-15661%
TORTOR+12944%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 7th Inning

LADLAD
A. Freeland

A. Freeland

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
A. Gimenez

A. Gimenez

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat TOR 4-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 6th Inning · 3-1
+8pp→ 22% WP

Springer · doubled to right, Giménez scored.

TORBottom 7th Inning · 3-1
+9pp→ 36% WP

Clement · reached on bunt single to third, Okamoto to third.

LADBottom 7th Inning · 3-1
+12pp→ 89% WP

Springer · flied out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0020100014
TOR0000010001

Period scoring

LAD won 3 · TOR won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Ohtani 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Freeland 1

0
1

Inn 6

Springer 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Tucker 1

LAD
TOR

Play-by-play · 565 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  3. B9

    Heineman struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

    −3pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  7. B9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Tyler Heineman

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  8. B9

    Heineman hit for Valenzuela

    ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  9. B9

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  10. B9

    Giménez singled to right, Clement to third.

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

    +2pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  15. B9

    Clement to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  16. B9

    Clement to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  18. B9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Andres Gimenez

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  19. B9

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  20. B9

    Schneider struck out looking.

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

    −3pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  27. B9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Davis Schneider

    · ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  28. B9

    ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

  29. B9

    Clement walked.

    ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

    +2pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAD 4·TOR 1

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

4

Runs

1

8

Hits

6

0

Errors

2

10

TB

9

0

HR

0

3

BB

3

11

K

10

20

LOB

20

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 7.5·LAD -156/TOR +129

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

TOR vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.6high
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Alex CallLAD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.6± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    45.5%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.2%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.3%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175