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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6MIL
MIL

MIL

27-18

9
3
CHC

CHC

29-19

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
37,647 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 0.0 · +10.5

CHC no-vig %

59.8%

open 60.0% · -0.2

+0.5-2.0CHC SPREADO/U 11.0O/U -0.5TOTAL64.0%55.3%CHC NO-VIG %May 17, 4 PMMay 18, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 9 · CHC 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0104310009
CHC0000300003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 19, 26sim 89
    85
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 89
    193
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 89
    158
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 87
    195
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 87
    1914
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 86
    194
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, May 18·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 3-0/VegasCHC -163

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 9–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIL +1.5 cashed (CHC lost outright). Total cleared the 10.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1S. ImanagaCHC−55.0pp
  2. 2A. VaughnMIL+31.8pp
  3. 3J. BauersMIL+23.2pp

MIL · top performer

MIL
Christian Yelich

Christian Yelich

DH

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Michael Busch

Michael Busch

1B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL27-18
9
3
CHC29-19
MIL27-18·CHC29-19
MIL

MIL

27-18

9
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
2-550210005.7
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-441000121.7
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
2-5512000021.5
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
2-4422211120.4
SPRINT27.148
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
2-3322001031.8
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
2-4422410023.2
SPRINT2744
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-440100016.2
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-4411200021.0
SPRINT28.790
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-330100106.4
B. PerkinsB. PerkinsCF
0-110000000.0
Team13-37379139244—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
B. SproatB. Sproat★SP
4.23333510.1
SS. DrohanRP
4.14000503.7
Team9.07333101—
CHC

CHC

29-19

3
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
0-331000211.5
SPRINT28.278
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
2-220210103.1
SPRINT25.716
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-440000016.1
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-440000028.5
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
2-440200002.1
SPRINT27.457
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★DH
0-330000020.1
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
2-441200020.1
SPRINT25.716
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-440000023.7
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-441121001.8
SPRINT27.867
M. ShawM. ShawRF
0-110000001.3
Team7-33333731310—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
S. ImanagaS. Imanaga★SP
4.198832255.0
E. RobertsE. RobertsRP
1.23111001.6
T. BlachT. BlachRP
3.01000201.1
Team9.01399442—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • B. Sproat
    78 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      33%·96.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      31%·96.2 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      22%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·83.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      4%·91.2 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      3%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • S. Drohan
    42 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      26%·94.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      24%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.7 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      12%·81.9 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.0 mph·50% whiff

CHC

  • S. Imanaga
    79 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      49%·91.8 mph·6% whiff
    • SI
      23%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      18%·83.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.3 mph·25% whiff
  • T. Blach
    30 pitches·37% CSW
    • SI
      63%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      10%·83.0 mph·33% whiff
  • E. Roberts
    28 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      43%·93.1 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      43%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

7

9

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 3-0

May 18MILMIL9@CHCCHC3today
May 19MILMIL5@CHCCHC2
May 20MILMIL5@CHCCHC0

Season series

MIL leads series 1-0

May 18MILMIL9@CHCCHC3today
May 19MILMIL5@CHCCHC2
May 20MILMIL5@CHCCHC0
Jun 26CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming
Jun 27CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming
Jun 28CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming
Aug 31MILMIL@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 1MILMIL@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 2MILMIL@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 3MILMIL@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 7CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming
Sep 8CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming
Sep 9CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.4h

Total

10.5

High-scoring · +2.0 vs avg

↗10.5pt· 6.4h

Moneyline

MILMIL+13543%
CHCCHC-16362%

↗1· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

10.5

+10.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 4th Inning

MILMIL
C. Yelich

C. Yelich

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

B. Sproat

B. Sproat

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

CHCCHC
M. Busch

M. Busch

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

S. Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 2 K · 8 ER · 9 H · 3 BB

How it ended

MIL beat CHC 9-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 52% WP

Yelich · homered to right (409 feet).

MILTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 61% WP

Contreras · singled to left.

MILTop 4th Inning · 4-0
+17pp→ 85% WP

Frelick · doubled to left, Bauers scored and Vaughn scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0104310009
CHC0000300003

Period scoring

MIL won 3 · CHC won 0

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Yelich 1

0
0

Inn 3

4
0

Inn 4

Frelick 2

3
3

Inn 5

Bauers 3

Swanson 2

1
0

Inn 6

Yelich 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIL
CHC

Play-by-play · 540 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  2. B9

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  3. B9

    Hoerner flied out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  6. B9

    Shane Drohan pitches to Nico Hoerner

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  7. B9

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  8. B9

    Swanson grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  10. B9

    Shane Drohan pitches to Dansby Swanson

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  11. B9

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  12. B9

    Crow-Armstrong struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  16. B9

    Shane Drohan pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  17. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  18. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  19. T9

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  20. T9

    Perkins grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  24. T9

    Ty Blach pitches to Blake Perkins

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  25. T9

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  26. T9

    Yelich struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 9·CHC 3

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

9

Runs

3

13

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

22

TB

12

2

HR

1

4

BB

3

4

K

10

10

LOB

18

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 10.5·MIL +135/CHC -163

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.15

CLV pp

Open price

+139

Close price

+138

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CHC vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.6low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    1.8± 2.4high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.1%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    44.1%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.3%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.2%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.