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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2NYY
NYY

NYY

5-1

5
3
SEA

SEA

3-4

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
23,415 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

SEA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

SEA no-vig %

52.2%

open 52.2%

+2.0+1.0SEA SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL56.2%48.2%SEA NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 5 · SEA 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY1000030015
SEA0000000213

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Apr 1·Final/SeriesNYY win series 2-1/VegasSEA -120

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 5–3.

NYY -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ben Rice

Ben Rice

1B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Dominic Canzone

Dominic Canzone

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY5-1
5
3
SEA3-4
NYY5-1·SEA3-4
NYY

NYY

5-1

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-33100011
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-44000001
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-33100011
SPRINT27.560
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
2-33222110
SPRINT26.941
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
1-44113102
SPRINT24.74
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-44010002
SPRINT28.175
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
1-33010000
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-33010001
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
0-33000001
R. McMahonR. McMahon3B
0-11000000
Team6-3131565239
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SchlittlerC. Schlittler★SP
6.1200070
F. CruzF. CruzRP
0.2000010
C. DovalC. DovalRP
0.2222110
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.1311010
Team9.07331100
SEA

SEA

3-4

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.18
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-44012002
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-44000002
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-44000000
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT26.941
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
1-44010000
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
2-44121001
SPRINT25.920
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT27.662
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
0-33000003
Team7-34343730110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
6.0544361
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0000020
C. CriswellC. CriswellRP
2.0111011
Team9.0655392

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • C. Schlittler
    79 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      35%·96.7 mph·61% whiff
    • FC
      28%·93.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      27%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·88.9 mph·— whiff
  • D. Bednar
    40 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      38%·95.3 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      35%·90.4 mph·10% whiff
    • CU
      28%·76.1 mph·17% whiff
  • C. Doval
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      47%·86.8 mph·57% whiff
    • SI
      32%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      42%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·82.9 mph·— whiff

SEA

  • G. Kirby
    89 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      38%·96.7 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      19%·88.9 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      19%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      15%·84.9 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      8%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      1%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Criswell
    30 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      33%·84.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      27%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      23%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·76.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

5

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

NYY win series 2-1

Mar 31NYYNYY1@SEASEA2
Apr 1NYYNYY5@SEASEA0
Apr 1NYYNYY5@SEASEA3today

Season series

NYY lead series 2-1

Mar 31NYYNYY1@SEASEA2
Apr 1NYYNYY5@SEASEA0
Apr 1NYYNYY5@SEASEA3today
Aug 11SEASEA@NYYNYYupcoming
Aug 12SEASEA@NYYNYYupcoming
Aug 13SEASEA@NYYNYYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NYYNYY+10050%
SEASEA-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 25pp · Top 6th Inning

NYYNYY
B. Rice

B. Rice

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 2 H

SEASEA
D. Canzone

D. Canzone

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

NYY beat SEA 5-3. Goldschmidt's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SEA vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 60% WP

Rice · doubled to right, Bellinger scored.

NYYTop 6th Inning · 4-0
+25pp→ 92% WP

Goldschmidt · homered to left center (406 feet), Grisham scored and Rice scored.

SEABottom 8th Inning · 4-2
+11pp→ 18% WP

Raleigh · singled to right, Canzone scored and Young scored, Donovan to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY1000030015
SEA0000000213

Period scoring

NYY won 2 · SEA won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Rice 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

3
0

Inn 6

Goldschmidt 3

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Raleigh 2

1
1

Inn 9

Rice 1

Canzone 1

NYY
SEA

Play-by-play · 542 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  3. B9

    Young flied out to right.

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

    −3pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 10 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  11. B9

    Canzone to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  12. B9

    Canzone to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  16. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Cole Young

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  17. B9

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  18. B9

    Canzone singled to right, Arozarena scored.

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

    +2pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 2

  22. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Dominic Canzone

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 3

  23. B9

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 2

  24. B9

    Raley grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 2

    −3pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 2

  28. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Luke Raley

    · ·

    NYY 5·SEA 2

  29. B9

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 2

  30. B9

    Arozarena doubled to left.

    ·

    NYY 5·SEA 2

    +3pp

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

5

Runs

3

6

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

13

TB

9

2

HR

0

3

BB

1

9

K

10

6

LOB

11

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 7·NYY +100/SEA -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

SEA vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    2.5± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    49.4%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.7%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.6%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    101
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 94
    105
    12(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 93
    165
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 93
    195
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 92
    157
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 91
    194
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs