
NYY
5-1

SEA
3-4
Line movement
8 snapshots
SEA spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 7.0
open O/U 7.0
SEA no-vig %
52.2%
open 52.2%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
NYY wins
NYY 5 · SEA 3 (by 2)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked NYY +1pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Recap · MLB
ew York Yankees went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 5–3.
NYY -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 1.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NYY · top performer

Ben Rice
1B
3-2
AB-H
2
R
2
RBI
SEA · top performer

Dominic Canzone
DH
4-2
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


NYY
5-1
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.735 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.560 | ||||||||
| 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.941 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT24.74 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT28.175 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 6-31 | 31 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 6.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
SEA
3-4
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.18 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.941 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.920 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.662 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Team | 7-34 | 34 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 6.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 2 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantNYY
SEA
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
Hits
7
5
Runs
3
0
Errors
1
Current series
NYY win series 2-1
Season series
NYY lead series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYY -1.5
Total
7.0
Defensive · -1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
7.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 25pp · Top 6th Inning
B. Rice
1BBatter of the gamePerfect day
2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS
C. Schlittler
SPStarting pitcherQuality start
6.1 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 2 H
D. Canzone
DHBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS
G. Kirby
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 3 BB
How it ended
NYY beat SEA 5-3. Goldschmidt's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
SEA vs NYY
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactRice · doubled to right, Bellinger scored.
Goldschmidt · homered to left center (406 feet), Grisham scored and Rice scored.
Raleigh · singled to right, Canzone scored and Young scored, Donovan to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Period scoring
NYY won 2 · SEA won 1
Inn 1
Rice 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Goldschmidt 3
Inn 7
Inn 8
Raleigh 2
Inn 9
Rice 1
Canzone 1
Play-by-play · 542 plays
End of the 9th inning
NYY 5·SEA 3
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 3
Young flied out to right.
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 3
−3pp
Pitch 10 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 3
Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 3
Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 3
Pitch 7 : Ball 3
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 3
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 3
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 3
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 3
Canzone to second on fielder's indifference.
·
NYY 5·SEA 3
Canzone to second on fielder's indifference.
·
NYY 5·SEA 3
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 3
David Bednar pitches to Cole Young
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 3
·
NYY 5·SEA 3
Canzone singled to right, Arozarena scored.
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 3
+2pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 3
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 2
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 2
David Bednar pitches to Dominic Canzone
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 3
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 2
Raley grounded out to shortstop.
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 2
−3pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 2
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 2
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 2
David Bednar pitches to Luke Raley
· ·
NYY 5·SEA 2
·
NYY 5·SEA 2
Arozarena doubled to left.
·
NYY 5·SEA 2
+3pp
Team stats
NYY
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
5
Runs
3
6
Hits
7
0
Errors
1
13
TB
9
2
HR
0
3
BB
1
9
K
10
6
LOB
11
Betting line
NYY -1.5·O/U 7·NYY +100/SEA -120
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
4 of 16 players in cohortThe receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+100
Close price
+100
Open no-vig
47.8%
Close no-vig
47.8%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 77 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.9%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
49.4%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.7%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.6%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.13 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs