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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TOR
LAD

LAD

9-3

3
4
TOR

TOR

5-7

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
37,766 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TOR no-vig %

40.7%

open 40.7%

+2.0+1.0TOR SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL44.7%36.7%TOR NO-VIG %MODEL 40.0%May 4, 10 AMJun 2, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

LAD 3 · TOR 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0001011003
TOR001000214

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    194
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 90
    85
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 89
    192
    24(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 89
    89
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 88
    105
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 88
    104
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Apr 8·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1/VegasLAD -163

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

TOR +1.5 cashed (LAD lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1D. SchneiderTOR+54.2pp
  2. 2J. DreyerLAD−52.0pp
  3. 3M. StrawTOR+40.5pp

LAD · top performer

LAD
Will Smith

Will Smith

C

1.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD9-3
3
4
TOR5-7
LAD9-3·TOR5-7
LAD

LAD

9-3

3
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★DH
0-3300001213.6
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-330100207.8
SPRINT26.123
W. SmithW. Smith★C
2-3322102111.3
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-550210018.6
SPRINT24.74
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-3300002121.0
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-330010012.0
SPRINT28.381
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-440000041.2
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
1-4401000211.6
SPRINT26.941
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
0-3310001112.2
Team6-31313630813—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★DH
6.041012013.6
SPRINT2744
J. DreyerJ. Dreyer★RP
0.132210052.0
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.200011010.8
B. CaspariusB. CaspariusRP
1.011110030.3
Team8.0843430—
TOR

TOR

5-7

4
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
2-5502100035.2
SPRINT25.920
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-3311101012.9
SPRINT26.838
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-330200108.1
SPRINT26.123
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-4401100122.4
SPRINT25.818
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
0-4400000115.6
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-440000003.7
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-220000001.4
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-4401000020.5
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
1-330100017.7
B. ValenzuelaB. ValenzuelaC
0-1100000013.0
Team8-3333483043—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
D. CeaseD. Cease★SP
5.042148018.1
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.00000108.6
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.10112005.8
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.210012010.5
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.010012018.6
Team9.06328130—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • S. Ohtani
    96 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      35%·98.3 mph·10% whiff
    • ST
      23%·85.3 mph·15% whiff
    • CU
      15%·75.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      11%·88.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      8%·96.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      4%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Dreyer
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      68%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Casparius
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      31%·95.8 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      25%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      19%·93.9 mph·33% whiff
  • B. Treinen
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • ST
      78%·83.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      22%·94.9 mph·50% whiff

TOR

  • D. Cease
    96 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      38%·97.6 mph·53% whiff
    • SL
      15%·90.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.4 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      13%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.8 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      10%·85.2 mph·20% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      29%·90.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      14%·87.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.6 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rogers
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      75%·82.4 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      25%·73.2 mph·67% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      71%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Varland
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      54%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      31%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·93.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

3

Runs

4

2

Errors

1

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

Apr 6LADLAD14@TORTOR2
Apr 7LADLAD4@TORTOR1
Apr 8LADLAD3@TORTOR4today

Season series

LAD win series 2-1

Apr 6LADLAD14@TORTOR2
Apr 7LADLAD4@TORTOR1
Apr 8LADLAD3@TORTOR4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-16362%
TORTOR+13543%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 23pp · Bottom 7th Inning

LADLAD
W. Smith

W. Smith

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.467 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

DH

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
V. Guerrero Jr.

V. Guerrero Jr.

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

D. Cease

D. Cease

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

TOR beat LAD 4-3. Springer's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Win probability

TOR vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 7th Inning · 3-2
+23pp→ 48% WP

Springer · doubled to right, Schneider scored, Straw to third.

TORBottom 8th Inning · 3-3
+14pp→ 68% WP

Gim · énez singled to center, Schneider to third.

TORTop 9th Inning · 3-4
+16pp→ 84% WP

Freeman · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0001011003
TOR00100021—4

Period scoring

LAD won 2 · TOR won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Hern 1

1
2

Inn 7

Smith 1

Springer 1

0
1

Inn 8

Valenzuela 1

0

Inn 9

LAD
TOR

Play-by-play · 593 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  2. T9

    Muncy grounded out to pitcher.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

    +16pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  6. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Max Muncy

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  7. T9

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  8. T9

    Freeman struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

    +16pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  14. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Freddie Freeman

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  15. T9

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  16. T9

    Smith walked, Tucker to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

    −9pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  23. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Will Smith

    · ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  24. T9

    ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  25. T9

    Tucker singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

    −10pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  29. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Kyle Tucker

    ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

  30. T9

    ·

    LAD 3·TOR 4

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

3

Runs

4

6

Hits

8

2

Errors

1

6

TB

11

0

HR

0

8

BB

4

13

K

3

23

LOB

21

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 7.5·LAD -163/TOR +135

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 17 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

TOR vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.6high
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Alex CallLAD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.6± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.9%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    44.3%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.7%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.2%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.