MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

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BOT 7TH+4ATL

ATL

27-13

LAD

24-15

Live · model leanBot 7thPolls every 30s

67.5%

ATL wins · current

Pre-game: 56.1% LAD

ATL 4 · 0 LAD

ATL +4

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsLAD leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingATLBottom 6th Inning · 4-0
+7pp→ 94% WP
Muncy · flied out to right.
SwingATLTop 2nd Inning · 4-0
+26pp→ 78% WP
Dub · ón doubled to left, Harris II scored, Mateo scored and Murphy scored.
Lead flipATLTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 52% WP
White · singled to center, Riley scored, Harris II to second.

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 3.27

B. Elder

3-1 · 2.02 ERA

J. Wrobleski

5-0 · 1.25 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAD no-vig %

54.2%

open 53.2% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
56.1%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.1%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.3%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

81% confidence

Win prob · home

1.0%

-55.1ppvs pre-game · ATL favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.02

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

54.2%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

LAD vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 63 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.0± 3.1low
Emmet SheehanLAD
6.1± 3.5low
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
5.7± 2.8low

Hits

Andy PagesLAD
1.3± 1.0high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.2± 0.8high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.7± 2.1high
Andy PagesLAD
2.5± 3.6high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
2.1± 1.4high

RBIs

Andy PagesLAD
1.0± 1.9high
Matt OlsonATL
0.9± 0.7high
Austin RileyATL
0.7± 0.7high

Earned runs

Roki SasakiLAD
3.2± 2.3low
Emmet SheehanLAD
2.7± 1.9low
Grant HolmesATL
2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

ATL

Braves

27-13

vs56.1%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

24-15

ATL 43.9%win prob56.1% LAD

LAD 1571 · ATL 1552Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSun, May 10Bot 7thSeriestied 1-1VegasLAD -143

Updated 0s ago

ATL · top performer

Mauricio Dubon

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

RBI

LAD · top performer

Andy Pages

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Bot 7th

ATL27-13

LAD24-15

ATL27-13LAD24-15

ATL

27-13

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. Dubon★SS	1-3	3	0	1	3	0	0	0
SPRINT26.428
D. Baldwin★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. Albies★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Olson★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. Riley★3B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.765
M. Harris II★CF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.148
E. White★CF	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT30.499+
S. Murphy★C	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. Mateo★SS	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team	4-25	25	4	4	4	0	1	7

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
B. Elder★SP	5.2	1	0	0	4	8	0
R. SuarezRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	0
Team	6.1	1	0	0	5	8	0

LAD

24-15

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. Ohtani★DH	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT2744
F. Freeman★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT24.74
A. Pages★CF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT28.175
K. Tucker★RF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
SPRINT26.123
M. Muncy★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.354
A. Call★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. Rushing★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. Kim★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Freeland★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team	1-20	20	0	1	0	0	5	8

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
J. Wrobleski★SP	7.0	4	4	4	1	7	0
Team	7.0	4	4	4	1	7	0

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

B. Elder
83 pitches29% CSW
- FF
  30%93.4 mph36% whiff
- SL
  29%83.3 mph30% whiff
- SI
  23%92.2 mph14% whiff
- CH
  11%86.7 mph100% whiff
- FC
  7%89.3 mph67% whiff
R. Suarez
15 pitches27% CSW
- FF
  67%98.6 mph25% whiff
- CH
  20%90.9 mph0% whiff
- FC
  7%96.4 mph— whiff
- SI
  7%99.2 mph— whiff

LAD

J. Wrobleski
80 pitches28% CSW
- FF
  56%93.6 mph35% whiff
- SL
  25%85.6 mph25% whiff
- SI
  10%92.6 mph0% whiff
- CU
  5%72.9 mph33% whiff
- CH
  4%86.0 mph0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

Series tied 1-1

May 9

ATL1@

LAD3

May 10

ATL7@

LAD2

May 10

ATL@

LADtoday

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 9

ATL1@

LAD3

May 10

ATL7@

LAD2

May 10

ATL@

LADtoday

Aug 25

LAD@

ATLupcoming

Aug 26

LAD@

ATLupcoming

Aug 27

LAD@

ATLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+11946%

LAD-14359%

5· 5.8h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

ATLSP

B. Elder

#55 · 3-1

ERA

2.02

—

Last 3 starts

5/6@

SEA6.0 IP · 2 ER · 9 K-

4/30vs

DET6.0 IP · 1 ER · 5 K-

4/25vs

PHI7.0 IP · 3 ER · 2 K-

LADSP

J. Wrobleski

#70 · 5-0

ERA

1.25

—

Last 3 starts

5/3@

STL6.0 IP · 0 ER · 0 KW(5-0)

4/26vs

CHC6.0 IP · 0 ER · 6 KW(4-0)

4/21@

COL7.0 IP · 1 ER · 3 KW(3-0)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

ATL3L · 5R · 1S

1
M. Dubon
LF · #14
R
2
D. Baldwin
DH · #30
L
3
O. Albies
2B · #1
B
4
M. Olson
1B · #28
L
5
A. Riley
3B · #27
R
6
M. Harris II
CF · #23
L
7
E. White
RF · #36
R
8
S. Murphy
C · #12
R
9
J. Mateo
SS · #2
R

LAD6L · 2R · 1S

1
S. Ohtani
DH · #17
L
2
F. Freeman
1B · #5
L
3
A. Pages
CF · #44
R
4
K. Tucker
RF · #23
L
5
M. Muncy
3B · #13
L
6
A. Call
LF · #12
R
7
D. Rushing
C · #68
L
8
H. Kim
SS · #6
L
9
A. Freeland
2B · #76
B

Live · top performers so far

Bot 7th

Game flowATL ↔ LAD

Recent swing: 7pp · Bottom 6th Inning

ATL

M. Dubon

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

B. Elder

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 4 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 10 K · 0 ER

LAD

A. Pages

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

J. Wrobleski

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it's going

ATL lead LAD 4-0 (Bot 7th). Dub's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Win probability

LAD vs ATL

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATLTop 2nd Inning · 1-0

+11pp→ 52% WP

White · singled to center, Riley scored, Harris II to second.

ATLTop 2nd Inning · 4-0

+26pp→ 78% WP

Dub · ón doubled to left, Harris II scored, Mateo scored and Murphy scored.

ATLBottom 6th Inning · 4-0

+7pp→ 94% WP

Muncy · flied out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	R
ATL	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
LAD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · LAD won 0

Inn 1

Inn 2

Dub 3

Inn 3

Inn 4

Inn 5

Inn 6

Inn 7

ATL

LAD

Play-by-play · 361 plays

period

event

player

B7
· ·
ATL 4·LAD 0
B7
Rushing flied out to right.
· ·
ATL 4·LAD 0
−3pp
B7
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
ATL 4·LAD 0
B7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
ATL 4·LAD 0
B7
Robert Suarez pitches to Dalton Rushing
· ·
ATL 4·LAD 0
B7
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
B7
Call walked.
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
+3pp
B7
Pitch 6 : Ball 4
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
B7
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
B7
Pitch 4 : Ball 3
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
B7
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
B7
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
B7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
B7
Robert Suarez pitches to Alex Call
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
B7
Bottom of the 7th inning
ATL 4·LAD 0
M7
Middle of the 7th inning
ATL 4·LAD 0
T7
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
T7
Murphy grounded out to third.
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
T7
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
T7
Justin Wrobleski pitches to Sean Murphy
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
T7
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
T7
White struck out swinging.
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
T7
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
T7
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
T7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
T7
Justin Wrobleski pitches to Eli White
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
T7
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
T7
Harris II struck out swinging.
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
+0.6pp
T7
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
ATL 4·LAD 0
T7
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
ATL 4·LAD 0

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 9.5·ATL +119/LAD -143

DraftKings · via ESPN