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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3SF
SF

SF

6-8

6
3
BAL

BAL

6-7

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
32,294 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BAL no-vig %

54.3%

open 54.3%

-1.0-2.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL58.3%50.3%BAL NO-VIG %MODEL 54.2%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 6 · BAL 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BAL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0012003006
BAL0001000023

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 12, 26sim 99
    262
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 96
    14
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    262
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    283
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 96
    66
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 96
    12
    23(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

BAL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.4± 2.1high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    55.0%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.6%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.0%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

MLB·Fri, Apr 10·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -132

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 6–3.

SF +1.5 cashed (BAL lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Jung Hoo Lee

Jung Hoo Lee

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar Henderson

SS

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF6-8
6
3
BAL6-7
SF6-8·BAL6-7
SF

SF

6-8

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
2-55122101
SPRINT27.457
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-33000020
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
2-44120010
SPRINT28.175
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-55010000
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
3-55231002
SPRINT2872
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
2-44122101
SPRINT27.148
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-44111001
SPRINT27.251
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-44010000
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-44000001
Team12-38386126236
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. RouppL. Roupp★SP
6.0511240
K. WinnK. WinnRP
1.0000000
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
0.2000210
M. GageM. GageRP
0.1000000
B. TidwellB. TidwellRP
1.0322011
Team9.0833461
BAL

BAL

6-7

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-44112110
SPRINT28.175
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-55010001
SPRINT27.457
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
3-55030000
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-33000012
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-33000010
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-22100010
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
2-44021000
SPRINT2993
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.530
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-44000002
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle1B
0-11000000
Team8-3535383146
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BazS. Baz★SP
5.0933241
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.0000010
N. RaquetN. RaquetRP
1.0233101
A. SuarezA. SuarezRP
2.0100010
Team9.01266362

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • L. Roupp
    93 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      45%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      28%·76.5 mph·31% whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      12%·87.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      1%·92.6 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Tidwell
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • ST
      44%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      39%·95.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      6%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Brubaker
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      73%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·80.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.9 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Winn
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FS
      64%·90.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Gage
    2 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      50%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·83.9 mph·— whiff

BAL

  • S. Baz
    99 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      34%·96.3 mph·10% whiff
    • FC
      28%·90.3 mph·27% whiff
    • KC
      26%·86.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      6%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Raquet
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • ST
      52%·82.4 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      40%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·91.8 mph·— whiff
  • A. Suarez
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      61%·92.7 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      17%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      6%·78.2 mph·100% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      56%·90.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

8

6

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

Apr 10SFSF6@BALBAL3today
Apr 11SFSF2@BALBAL6
Apr 12SFSF2@BALBAL6

Season series

SF leads series 1-0

Apr 10SFSF6@BALBAL3today
Apr 11SFSF2@BALBAL6
Apr 12SFSF2@BALBAL6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF+10948%
BALBAL-13257%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 3rd Inning

SFSF
J. Lee

J. Lee

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

L. Roupp

L. Roupp

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

BALBAL
G. Henderson

G. Henderson

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 9 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SF beat BAL 6-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BAL vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 55% WP

Adames · homered to right center (402 feet).

SFTop 4th Inning · 3-0
+10pp→ 81% WP

Adames · doubled to left, Ramos scored, Bailey to third.

BALBottom 4th Inning · 3-1
+12pp→ 34% WP

Taveras · doubled to right, Beavers scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0012003006
BAL0001000023

Period scoring

SF won 3 · BAL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Adames 1

2
1

Inn 4

Ramos 1

Taveras 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

3
0

Inn 7

Lee 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
2

Inn 9

Henderson 2

SF
BAL

Play-by-play · 575 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SF 6·BAL 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    SF 6·BAL 3

  3. B9

    Rutschman popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    SF 6·BAL 3

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 6·BAL 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 6·BAL 3

  6. B9

    Blade Tidwell pitches to Adley Rutschman

    · ·

    SF 6·BAL 3

  7. B9

    ·

    SF 6·BAL 3

  8. B9

    Ward doubled to right.

    ·

    SF 6·BAL 3

    +2pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 6·BAL 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 6·BAL 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 6·BAL 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 6·BAL 3

  13. B9

    Blade Tidwell pitches to Taylor Ward

    ·

    SF 6·BAL 3

  14. B9

    ·

    SF 6·BAL 3

  15. B9

    Henderson homered to right (383 feet), Jackson scored.

    · ·

    SF 6·BAL 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 6·BAL 3

  17. B9

    Blade Tidwell pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    · ·

    SF 6·BAL 3

  18. B9

    · ·

    SF 6·BAL 1

  19. B9

    Alexander struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SF 6·BAL 1

    −0.5pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 6·BAL 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 6·BAL 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 6·BAL 1

  23. B9

    Blade Tidwell pitches to Blaze Alexander

    · ·

    SF 6·BAL 1

  24. B9

    ·

    SF 6·BAL 1

  25. B9

    Jackson singled to left.

    ·

    SF 6·BAL 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 6·BAL 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 6·BAL 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 6·BAL 1

  29. B9

    Blade Tidwell pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    ·

    SF 6·BAL 1

  30. B9

    ·

    SF 6·BAL 1

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

6

Runs

3

12

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

23

TB

15

2

HR

1

3

BB

4

6

K

6

16

LOB

13

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 8.5·SF +109/BAL -132

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872