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FINAL+1MIN

MIN

18-23

CLE

21-21

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

22,475 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CLE no-vig %

57.3%

open 57.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.7%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
59.5%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.6%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.67 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-150

Close price

-150

Open no-vig

57.3%

Close no-vig

57.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

CLE vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.5± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
6.4± 2.5low
Connor PrielippMIN
5.3± 1.3low

Hits

Chase DeLauterCLE
1.4± 1.1high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
3.1± 2.8high
Chase DeLauterCLE
2.3± 1.8high
Ryan JeffersMIN
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Byron BuxtonMIN
0.9± 1.1high
Chase DeLauterCLE
0.7± 0.9high
Rhys HoskinsCLE
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
3.8± 2.3low
Slade CecconiCLE
3.5± 3.1low
Bailey OberMIN
2.5± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 5 · CLE 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	5
CLE	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSun, May 10FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-1VegasCLE -163

Recap · MLB

innesota Twins went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

MIN +1.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

Kody Clemens

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

RBI

CLE · top performer

Brayan Rocchio

2.000OPS

4-4

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

MIN18-23

CLE21-21

MIN18-23CLE21-21

MIN

18-23

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. Buxton★CF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
T. Larnach★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. Jeffers★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Bell★1B	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	2
SPRINT25.18
A. Martin★LF	2-3	3	0	2	1	0	1	0
SPRINT27.867
L. Keaschall★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Clemens★1B	3-4	4	2	3	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.457
B. Lee★SS	2-3	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
SPRINT26.428
R. Lewis★3B	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
SPRINT27.251
V. CaratiniC	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team	13-35	35	5	13	4	0	2	8

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
A. Morris★RP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RojasSP	3.1	5	1	1	3	5	0
T. AdamsRP	1.1	4	2	2	2	2	0
A. BandaRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0
L. GarciaRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	0
Y. GomezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	9.0	11	4	4	6	9	0

CLE

21-21

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. Kwan★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. DeLauter★RF	2-5	5	0	2	2	0	0	0
SPRINT26.941
J. Ramirez★3B	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	1	1
SPRINT27.251
K. Manzardo★1B	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
D. Schneemann★CF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
A. Martinez★LF	1-5	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
SPRINT27.765
T. Bazzana★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	2	0
P. Bailey★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Rocchio★SS	4-4	4	2	4	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.354
R. Hoskins1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. FryRF	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.716
Team	11-36	36	4	11	4	0	6	9

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
G. Williams★SP	6.0	10	5	5	1	6	0
F. AlemanRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	1	0
T. HerrinRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0
Team	9.0	13	5	5	2	8	0

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

K. Rojas
60 pitches27% CSW
- FF
  40%95.2 mph9% whiff
- SL
  38%87.7 mph29% whiff
- SI
  13%93.7 mph0% whiff
- CH
  8%86.8 mph50% whiff
T. Adams
43 pitches28% CSW
- CH
  42%86.8 mph57% whiff
- FF
  30%94.1 mph0% whiff
- FC
  14%92.4 mph50% whiff
- SL
  9%85.8 mph0% whiff
- SI
  5%94.4 mph0% whiff
L. Garcia
20 pitches15% CSW
- SI
  75%95.0 mph0% whiff
- FS
  25%87.3 mph0% whiff
A. Banda
19 pitches32% CSW
- SL
  58%84.9 mph40% whiff
- SI
  21%93.7 mph33% whiff
- FF
  16%93.9 mph100% whiff
- CH
  5%86.4 mph— whiff
Y. Gomez
10 pitches40% CSW
- FF
  60%96.5 mph0% whiff
- CH
  10%89.6 mph— whiff
- FC
  10%90.7 mph— whiff
- SI
  10%95.3 mph0% whiff
- ST
  10%83.2 mph0% whiff
A. Morris
6 pitches17% CSW
- FF
  50%95.4 mph0% whiff
- CH
  17%86.1 mph0% whiff
- CU
  17%72.3 mph— whiff
- SI
  17%96.2 mph0% whiff

CLE

G. Williams
101 pitches33% CSW
- FF
  29%96.3 mph35% whiff
- CU
  25%81.3 mph33% whiff
- ST
  25%87.4 mph43% whiff
- SI
  20%96.4 mph27% whiff
- FC
  2%90.3 mph0% whiff
F. Aleman
28 pitches29% CSW
- FF
  82%97.1 mph21% whiff
- SL
  18%86.2 mph100% whiff
T. Herrin
14 pitches29% CSW
- SL
  36%87.5 mph75% whiff
- CU
  29%80.5 mph0% whiff
- SI
  21%94.3 mph0% whiff
- FF
  14%96.3 mph0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

MIN wins series 2-1

May 8

MIN4@

CLE6

May 9

MIN2@

CLE1

May 10

MIN5@

CLE4today

Season series

MIN leads series 2-1

May 8

MIN4@

CLE6

May 9

MIN2@

CLE1

May 10

MIN5@

CLE4today

Jul 7

CLE@

MINupcoming

Jul 8

CLE@

MINupcoming

Jul 9

CLE@

MINupcoming

Jul 20

MIN@

CLEupcoming

Jul 21

MIN@

CLEupcoming

Jul 22

MIN@

CLEupcoming

Jul 23

MIN@

CLEupcoming

Sep 12

CLE@

MINupcoming

Sep 12

CLE@

MINupcoming

Sep 13

CLE@

MINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+13543%

CLE-16362%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 4th Inning

MIN

K. Clemens

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 2 R · 1.500 OPS

K. Rojas

Top reliever

3.1 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

CLE

D. Fry

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

G. Williams

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 10 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIN beat CLE 5-4.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CLE vs MIN

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLEBottom 4th Inning · 1-1

+16pp→ 71% WP

Bazzana · reached on infield single to third.

MINTop 5th Inning · 3-1

+16pp→ 73% WP

Lewis · doubled to left, Lee scored.

MINBottom 8th Inning · 5-4

+15pp→ 80% WP

Hoskins · grounded out to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	5
CLE	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	4

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · CLE won 2

Inn 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Lewis 1

Ram 1

Inn 4

Inn 5

Lee 1

Mart 1

Inn 6

DeLauter 1

Inn 7

Inn 8

DeLauter 1

Inn 9

MIN

CLE

Play-by-play · 614 plays

period

event

player

End 9t
End of the 9th inning
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
Bazzana grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
−6pp
B9
Pitch 6 : Ball In Play
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
Pitch 5 : Ball 1
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
Yoendrys Gomez pitches to Travis Bazzana
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
Martínez grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIN 5·CLE 4
−8pp
B9
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
Yoendrys Gomez pitches to Angel Martinez
· ·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
Schneemann flied out to left.BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
−5pp
B9
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
Yoendrys Gomez pitches to Daniel Schneemann
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
Gómez relieved Garcia
·
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
Outman in left field.
MIN 5·CLE 4
B9
Bottom of the 9th inning
MIN 5·CLE 4
M9
Middle of the 9th inning
MIN 5·CLE 4
T9
· ·
MIN 5·CLE 4
T9
Caratini flied out to right.
· ·
MIN 5·CLE 4
T9
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
· ·
MIN 5·CLE 4
T9
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
MIN 5·CLE 4
T9
Buxton stole second.
· ·
MIN 5·CLE 4
T9
Buxton stole second.
· ·
MIN 5·CLE 4

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 7·MIN +135/CLE -163

DraftKings · via ESPN