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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3CHW
TOR

TOR

4-4

3
6
CHW

CHW

3-5

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
18,389 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CHW no-vig %

42.8%

open 42.8%

+2.0+1.0CHW SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL46.8%38.8%CHW NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 9 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

TOR 3 · CHW 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0000021003
CHW100003026

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 3, 26sim 97
    144
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 94
    157
    20(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 92
    54
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 91
    125
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 91
    140
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 90
    154
    20(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, Apr 4·Final/SeriesCHW win series 3-0/VegasTOR -149

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Toronto Blue Jays, 6–3.

CHW +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Jesus Sanchez

Jesus Sanchez

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Miguel Vargas

Miguel Vargas

3B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR4-4
3
6
CHW3-5
TOR4-4·CHW3-5
TOR

TOR

4-4

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-44000011
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
1-22110010
SPRINT26.838
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-44112101
SPRINT26.123
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
1-33010010
SPRINT26.123
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-33000010
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-44000000
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
1-33110000
SPRINT29.597
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-44000000
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
1-33010000
N. LukesN. LukesRF
0-11001000
SPRINT27.148
J. SanchezJ. SanchezRF
1-11010000
Team6-3232363152
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FluhartyM. Fluharty★RP
1.0211100
L. EstradaL. EstradaRP
4.0000230
B. LittleB. LittleRP
0.1333012
T. NanceT. NanceRP
1.2000010
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.0220110
Team8.0764462
CHW

CHW

3-5

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-44000000
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-33110000
SPRINT26.941
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
2-22220020
SPRINT28.381
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
1-33113101
SPRINT27.148
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-33110012
SPRINT27.354
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-33111111
SPRINT26.326
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
1-44010001
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
0-33000000
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
0-33000001
A. BenintendiA. BenintendiDH
0-11000000
Team7-2929674246
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. TaylorG. Taylor★RP
1.0000010
A. KayA. KaySP
4.1322201
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
1.0211000
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
1.1000100
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
0.1000100
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0100110
Team9.0633521

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • L. Estrada
    66 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      58%·92.3 mph·26% whiff
    • SL
      32%·85.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      8%·74.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      3%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      44%·88.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      24%·94.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      16%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·91.9 mph·25% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • FC
      50%·90.7 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      40%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • CU
      35%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·88.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      30%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Little
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      54%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      31%·87.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      8%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·91.8 mph·— whiff

CHW

  • A. Kay
    76 pitches·20% CSW
    • ST
      26%·82.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·90.3 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      16%·94.6 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      58%·96.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      29%·84.2 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      8%·85.4 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      4%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hicks
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • SI
      58%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      32%·87.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      5%·99.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      5%·89.2 mph·— whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    16 pitches·6% CSW
    • SV
      38%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Murphy
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      40%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·79.2 mph·— whiff
  • G. Taylor
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      44%·99.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·91.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      22%·99.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

3

Runs

6

1

Errors

1

Current series

CHW win series 3-0

Apr 2TORTOR0@CHWCHW0
Apr 3TORTOR4@CHWCHW5
Apr 4TORTOR3@CHWCHW6today
Apr 5TORTOR0@CHWCHW3

Season series

CHW lead series 2-0

Apr 2TORTOR0@CHWCHW0
Apr 3TORTOR4@CHWCHW5
Apr 4TORTOR3@CHWCHW6today
Apr 5TORTOR0@CHWCHW3
Jul 17CHWCHW@TORTORupcoming
Jul 18CHWCHW@TORTORupcoming
Jul 19CHWCHW@TORTORupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR-14960%
CHWCHW+12345%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 27pp · Top 6th Inning

TORTOR
J. Sanchez

J. Sanchez

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

L. Estrada

L. Estrada

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 2 BB

CHWCHW
M. Vargas

M. Vargas

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

A. Kay

A. Kay

SP

Top reliever

4.1 IP · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHW beat TOR 6-3. Guerrero Jr.'s play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Win probability

CHW vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 6th Inning · 2-1
+27pp→ 66% WP

Guerrero Jr. · homered to left center (437 feet), Schneider scored.

CHWBottom 6th Inning · 2-3
+25pp→ 73% WP

Murakami · homered to center (431 feet), Vargas scored.

CHWBottom 7th Inning · 3-4
+12pp→ 76% WP

Peters · flied out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0000021003
CHW10000302—6

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · CHW won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Murakami 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
3

Inn 6

Jr. 2

Murakami 2

1
0

Inn 7

Lukes 1

0
2

Inn 8

Acu 2

0

Inn 9

TOR
CHW

Play-by-play · 572 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  2. T9

    Lukes grounded out to first.

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  9. T9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Nathan Lukes

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  10. T9

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  11. T9

    Springer struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

    +5pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  17. T9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to George Springer

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  18. T9

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  19. T9

    Sánchez singled to left, Giménez to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

    −6pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  25. T9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Jesus Sanchez

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  26. T9

    Sánchez hit for Heineman

    ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  27. T9

    ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  28. T9

    Giménez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Barger out at second.

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

    +4pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 3·CHW 6

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

3

Runs

6

6

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

9

TB

15

1

HR

2

5

BB

4

2

K

6

19

LOB

8

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 8.5·TOR -149/CHW +123

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

CHW vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    2.3± 2.5low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    39.5%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.9%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    39.6%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luisangel AcunaCHW · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381