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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CHW
TOR

TOR

4-3

4
5
CHW

CHW

2-5

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
33,171 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CHW no-vig %

36.4%

open 36.4%

+2.0+1.0CHW SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL40.4%32.4%CHW NO-VIG %MODEL 38.5%May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

TOR 4 · CHW 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
TOR01000002014
CHW10200000025

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 4, 26sim 97
    143
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 91
    157
    20(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 2, 26sim 90
    140
    4(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 89
    54
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 88
    196
    3(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 88
    125
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+163

Close price

+163

Open no-vig

36.4%

Close no-vig

36.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, Apr 3·Final/SeriesCHW win series 3-0/VegasTOR -199

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Toronto Blue Jays, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

CHW +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Andres Gimenez

Andres Gimenez

SS

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Derek Hill

Derek Hill

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
TOR4-3
4
5
CHW2-5
TOR4-3·CHW2-5
TOR

TOR

4-3

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44010010
SPRINT25.920
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-55000003
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-44010001
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
1-33110000
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
1-44011000
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-44010001
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
0-44000004
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT27.354
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-44112102
SPRINT27.560
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000000
Team7-37374731111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. CeaseD. Cease★SP
4.1532360
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.2200030
B. LittleB. LittleRP
1.0000010
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0100010
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0100100
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
0.2220010
Team9.211524120
CHW

CHW

2-5

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-44110012
SPRINT2744
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
1-44010012
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-44200010
SPRINT28.381
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44110011
SPRINT26.326
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-55012001
SPRINT27.354
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-44010002
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
2-55021002
SPRINT28.586
E. QueroE. Quero★C
2-44020000
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
1-33010002
D. HillD. HillRF
1-11110000
Team11-383851130412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. TaylorG. Taylor★RP
1.0000010
S. BurkeS. BurkeSP
6.0411070
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.0222111
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
0.2100000
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.1010020
Team10.07431111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • D. Cease
    93 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      35%·97.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      34%·89.3 mph·37% whiff
    • KC
      10%·82.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      8%·84.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·83.9 mph·33% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    21 pitches·48% CSW
    • SL
      62%·88.0 mph·56% whiff
    • CU
      24%·80.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      14%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Little
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      53%·93.8 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      35%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·89.6 mph·— whiff
  • L. Varland
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      60%·98.0 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      40%·86.8 mph·67% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FS
      64%·89.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      36%·88.3 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      75%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·73.3 mph·0% whiff

CHW

  • S. Burke
    85 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      31%·95.6 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      25%·80.8 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      22%·94.9 mph·7% whiff
    • CH
      9%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·86.7 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      4%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      41%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.7 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      18%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      14%·87.2 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    17 pitches·6% CSW
    • SL
      47%·87.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      41%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    9 pitches·67% CSW
    • FF
      44%·99.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      33%·91.0 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      22%·84.9 mph·— whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      38%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      38%·81.1 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      25%·86.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

11

4

Runs

5

2

Errors

1

Current series

CHW win series 3-0

Apr 2TORTOR0@CHWCHW0
Apr 3TORTOR4@CHWCHW5today
Apr 4TORTOR3@CHWCHW6
Apr 5TORTOR0@CHWCHW3

Season series

CHW lead series 1-0

Apr 2TORTOR0@CHWCHW0
Apr 3TORTOR4@CHWCHW5today
Apr 4TORTOR3@CHWCHW6
Apr 5TORTOR0@CHWCHW3
Jul 17CHWCHW@TORTORupcoming
Jul 18CHWCHW@TORTORupcoming
Jul 19CHWCHW@TORTORupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR-19967%
CHWCHW+16338%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 45pp · Bottom 10th Inning

TORTOR
A. Gimenez

A. Gimenez

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

D. Cease

D. Cease

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

CHWCHW
D. Hill

D. Hill

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Top relieverQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 4 H

How it ended

CHW beat TOR 5-4. Hill's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (45pp).

Win probability

CHW vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 8th Inning · 3-3
+33pp→ 53% WP

Gim · énez homered to right (361 feet), Clement scored.

TORTop 10th Inning · 4-3
+28pp→ 57% WP

Schneider · scored on error, Springer safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Vargas.

CHWBottom 10th Inning · 4-4
+45pp→ 60% WP

Hill · reached on bunt single to catcher, Vargas scored on error, Hill safe at second on throwing error by catcher Heineman.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
TOR01000002014
CHW10200000025

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · CHW won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Meidroth 1

1
0

Inn 2

Kirk 1

0
2

Inn 3

Hays 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Gim 2

0
0

Inn 9

1
2

Inn 10

Schneider 1

Hill 1

TOR
CHW

Play-by-play · 627 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    ·

    TOR 4·CHW 5

  2. B10

    Peters singled to right, Hill scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 5

    +40pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 5

  4. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 4

  5. B10

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Tristan Peters

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 5

  6. B10

    ·

    TOR 4·CHW 4

  7. B10

    Hill reached on bunt single to catcher, Vargas scored on error, Hill safe at second on throwing error by catcher Heineman.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 4

    +45pp

  8. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 4

  9. B10

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Derek Hill

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 4

  10. B10

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  11. B10

    Hays struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

    −26pp

  12. B10

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  13. B10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  14. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  15. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  16. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  17. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  18. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  19. B10

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Austin Hays

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  20. B10

    Heineman catching.

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  21. B10

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  22. B10

    Montgomery grounded out to first, Vargas to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

    −6pp

  23. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  24. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  25. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  26. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  27. B10

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Colson Montgomery

    ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  28. B10

    Hoffman relieved Rogers

    ·

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  29. B10

    Clement at third base.

    TOR 4·CHW 3

  30. B10

    Schneider at second base.

    TOR 4·CHW 3

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

4

Runs

5

7

Hits

11

2

Errors

1

13

TB

11

1

HR

0

1

BB

4

11

K

12

12

LOB

22

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 7.5·TOR -199/CHW +163

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

CHW vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    2.3± 2.5low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    38.1%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    39.1%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    38.3%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Derek HillCHW · RF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Tristan PetersCHW · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381