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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CLE
CLE

CLE

28-22

4
3
DET

DET

20-29

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
21,239 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

DET no-vig %

46.7%

open 47.8% · -1.2

+2.0+1.0DET SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL51.8%42.7%DET NO-VIG %May 18, 5 PMMay 19, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 4 · DET 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0102001004
DET0201000003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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MLB·Tue, May 19·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 4-0/VegasCLE -163

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

DET +1.5 cashed (CLE won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Travis Bazzana

Travis Bazzana

2B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Riley Greene

Riley Greene

LF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE28-22
4
3
DET20-29
CLE28-22·DET20-29
CLE

CLE

28-22

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-44000000
SPRINT27.457
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-33000010
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
0-44000001
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-33210012
SPRINT25.411
T. BazzanaT. Bazzana★2B
2-33122111
SPRINT27.662
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-33000000
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-22111010
SPRINT26.530
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
0-22000000
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33001000
SPRINT27.354
Team4-2727444144
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. MessickP. Messick★SP
5.0432361
C. HoldermanC. HoldermanRP
1.0100010
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
1.0000120
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
0.1000110
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
0.2000100
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0200030
Team9.07326131
DET

DET

20-29

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
1-44010012
SPRINT28.483
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-55010002
SPRINT28.278
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
0-33000022
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-55000002
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-22220010
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-33112102
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT27.969
H. LeeH. Lee★2B
1-33010000
Z. ShortZ. Short★SS
0-22000011
C. KeithC. Keith3B
0-11000000
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry2B
0-11000000
G. WorkmanG. Workman3B
0-11000001
Team7-33333721613
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. MonteroK. Montero★SP
5.0233411
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
2.0111020
W. VestW. VestRP
1.0000010
B. SmithB. SmithRP
1.0100000
Team9.0444441

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • P. Messick
    81 pitches·19% CSW
    • CH
      27%·84.7 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      27%·92.5 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      25%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.2 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      7%·77.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Smith
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      59%·97.1 mph·29% whiff
    • FS
      23%·86.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      18%·85.2 mph·100% whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      73%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·80.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Holderman
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      54%·97.4 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      46%·86.3 mph·67% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      33%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·92.6 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      17%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      60%·92.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      30%·80.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      10%·96.2 mph·— whiff

DET

  • K. Montero
    85 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      33%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·87.1 mph·9% whiff
    • KC
      20%·80.8 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.4 mph·40% whiff
  • T. Holton
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      41%·90.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      27%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·83.7 mph·100% whiff
  • W. Vest
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      58%·97.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      25%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.3 mph·— whiff
  • B. Smith
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • CU
      27%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

7

4

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 4-0

May 18CLECLE8@DETDET2
May 19CLECLE4@DETDET3today
May 20CLECLE3@DETDET2
May 21CLECLE3@DETDET1

Season series

CLE leads series 2-0

May 18CLECLE8@DETDET2
May 19CLECLE4@DETDET3today
May 20CLECLE3@DETDET2
May 21CLECLE3@DETDET1
Jun 12DETDET@CLECLEupcoming
Jun 13DETDET@CLECLEupcoming
Jun 14DETDET@CLECLEupcoming
Aug 11CLECLE@DETDETupcoming
Aug 12CLECLE@DETDETupcoming
Aug 13CLECLE@DETDETupcoming
Sep 4DETDET@CLECLEupcoming
Sep 5DETDET@CLECLEupcoming
Sep 6DETDET@CLECLEupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLECLE-16362%
DETDET+13543%

↗5· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 4th Inning

CLECLE
T. Bazzana

T. Bazzana

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

P. Messick

P. Messick

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

DETDET
R. Greene

R. Greene

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

K. Montero

K. Montero

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

How it ended

CLE beat DET 4-3. Bazzana's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 2nd Inning · 1-2
+21pp→ 56% WP

Torkelson · homered to left center (380 feet), Greene scored.

CLETop 4th Inning · 3-2
+22pp→ 70% WP

Bazzana · homered to right (358 feet), Manzardo scored.

CLEBottom 9th Inning · 4-3
+18pp→ 100% WP

Dingler · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0102001004
DET0201000003

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · DET won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
2

Inn 2

Kwan 1

Torkelson 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
1

Inn 4

Bazzana 2

Short 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Rocchio 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CLE
DET

Play-by-play · 558 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CLE 4·DET 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  3. B9

    Dingler struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

    −18pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  10. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Dillon Dingler

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  11. B9

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  12. B9

    Jones struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

    −17pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  18. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Jahmai Jones

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  19. B9

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  20. B9

    McGonigle singled to right, Vierling to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

    +11pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  24. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Kevin McGonigle

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  25. B9

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  26. B9

    Vierling singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

    +14pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

  30. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Matt Vierling

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 3

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

DET

Home

4

Runs

3

4

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

8

TB

10

1

HR

1

4

BB

6

4

K

13

5

LOB

22

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 8·CLE -163/DET +135

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.16

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

53.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

DET vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    40.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    38.3%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    40.2%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.97 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 20, 26sim 98
    53
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 94
    53
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 94
    125
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 93
    86
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 93
    84
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 93
    82
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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