Matchup orbital

4
ATL
ATL
16-8
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME

11
WSH
WSH
11-13
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
WSH wins
ATL 4 · WSH 11 (by 7)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked ATL +9pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| WSH | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
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ATL16-8
ATL
11-13WSH
WSH

Recap · MLB
ashington Nationals held off Atlanta Braves, 11–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
WSH +1.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 6.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page


Current series
ATL wins series 3-1
ATL9@
WSH4
ATL4@
WSH11today
ATL8@
WSH6
ATL7@
WSH2Season series
Series tied 1-1
ATL9@
WSH4
ATL4@
WSH11today
ATL8@
WSH6
ATL7@
WSH2
WSH@
ATLupcoming
WSH@
ATLupcoming
WSH@
ATLupcoming
WSH@
ATLupcoming
WSH@
ATLupcoming
WSH@
ATLupcoming
WSH@
ATLupcoming
ATL@
WSHupcoming
ATL@
WSHupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ATL -1.5
Total
8.5
Standard · 0.0 vs avg
Moneyline
ATL-16362%
WSH+13543%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 3 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 5th Inning
ATL
E. White
CFBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

J. Suarez
RPTop reliever
3.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 4 BB
WSH
J. Wood
RFBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.833 OPS

F. Griffin
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB
How it ended
WSH beat ATL 11-4.
Win probability
WSH vs ATL
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactYoung · singled to center, Wood scored, Young to second, García Jr. to third.
White · homered to right (348 feet).
Garc · ía Jr. singled to center, House scored, Wood to second.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| WSH | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | — | 11 |
Period scoring
ATL won 1 · WSH won 3
Inn 1
Young 1
Inn 2
II 1
Wood 1
Inn 3
Baldwin 1
Inn 4
Inn 5
White 1
Garc 1
Inn 6
Inn 7
Garc 2
Inn 8
Riley 1
Mead 3
Inn 9
Game flow · key plays
García Jr. singled to center, House scored, Wood to second.
ATL 3·WSH 5
+13pp
White homered to right (348 feet).
ATL 3·WSH 4
−13pp
Baldwin homered to center (438 feet).
ATL 2·WSH 4
−9pp
Wood homered to left center (412 feet).
ATL 1·WSH 4
+9pp
Harris II doubled to right, Dubón scored.
ATL 1·WSH 3
−9pp
Young singled to center, Wood scored, Young to second, García Jr. to third.
ATL 0·WSH 1
+10pp
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
8
Hits
10
0
Errors
0
4
Runs
11
Player box score

ATL
16-8

R. Acuna Jr.★
RF
OPS
0.400
H-AB
1-5
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

D. Baldwin★
C
OPS
1.400
H-AB
1-4
R
2
RBI
1
HR
1

O. Albies★
2B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

M. Olson★
1B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

A. Riley★
3B
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0

M. Dubon★
SS
OPS
1.417
H-AB
2-3
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0

M. Harris II★
CF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0

J. Heim★
C
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

E. White★
CF
OPS
2.500
H-AB
1-2
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1

M. Yastrzemski
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
8-35
R
4
RBI
4
HR
2
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() R. Acuna Jr.★RF | 1-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
![]() D. Baldwin★C | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.400 |
![]() O. Albies★2B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() M. Olson★1B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() A. Riley★3B | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
![]() M. Dubon★SS | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.417 |
![]() M. Harris II★CF | 1-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() J. Heim★C | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() E. White★CF | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.500 |
![]() M. YastrzemskiLF | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 8-35 | 4 | 4 | 2 | — |

R. Lopez★
SP
IP
1.0
H
5
ER
4
K
1

J. Suarez
RP
IP
3.0
H
0
ER
0
K
4

D. Dodd
RP
IP
1.0
H
2
ER
1
K
2

A. Bummer
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
1

I. Hamilton
RP
IP
1.0
H
2
ER
3
K
1

J. Payamps
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
3
K
1
IP
8.0
H
10
ER
11
K
10
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() R. Lopez★SP | 1.0 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
![]() J. SuarezRP | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
![]() D. DoddRP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
![]() A. BummerRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
![]() I. HamiltonRP | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
![]() J. PayampsRP | 1.0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Team | 8.0 | 10 | 11 | 10 |

WSH
11-13

J. Wood★
RF
OPS
2.833
H-AB
1-2
R
3
RBI
1
HR
1

L. Garcia Jr.★
1B
OPS
1.600
H-AB
4-5
R
1
RBI
3
HR
0

J. Young★
CF
OPS
0.650
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
2
HR
0

C. Abrams★
SS
OPS
0.200
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

D. Lile★
LF
OPS
0.400
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0

N. Nunez★
2B
OPS
0.650
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0

J. Vivas★
3B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

J. Tena★
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

D. Millas★
C
OPS
0.400
H-AB
1-5
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0

B. House
3B
OPS
1.167
H-AB
1-2
R
2
RBI
0
HR
0

C. Mead
1B
OPS
2.667
H-AB
1-2
R
2
RBI
3
HR
1
H-AB
10-34
R
11
RBI
11
HR
2
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() J. Wood★RF | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2.833 |
![]() L. Garcia Jr.★1B | 4-5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1.600 |
![]() J. Young★CF | 1-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.650 |
![]() C. Abrams★SS | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 |
![]() D. Lile★LF | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
![]() N. Nunez★2B | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.650 |
![]() J. Vivas★3B | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() J. Tena★2B | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() D. Millas★C | 1-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
![]() B. House3B | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.167 |
![]() C. Mead1B | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2.667 |
| Team | 10-34 | 11 | 11 | 2 | — |

F. Griffin★
SP
IP
6.0
H
5
ER
3
K
3

G. Varland
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
1

C. Perez
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
1
K
0

C. Beeter
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
2
IP
9.0
H
8
ER
4
K
6
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() F. Griffin★SP | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
![]() G. VarlandRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
![]() C. PerezRP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
![]() C. BeeterRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 9.0 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
Betting line
ATL -1.5·O/U 8.5·ATL -163/WSH +135