Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 21, 2026

FINAL+7WSH

ATL

16-8

411

WSH

11-13

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

16,483 attended

Line movement

35 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

WSH no-vig %

40.7%

open 40.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
40.9%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.3%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.6%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.0low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.8± 2.3medium
Cade CavalliWSH
5.3± 3.6medium

Hits

Nasim NunezWSH
1.2± 0.7high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.1± 0.7high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

CJ AbramsWSH
2.1± 2.0high
James WoodWSH
2.1± 2.3high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

Dylan CrewsWSH
0.8± 0.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 0.7high
Curtis MeadWSH
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
2.8± 2.9medium
JR RitchieATL
2.6± 2.6low
Miles MikolasWSH
2.5± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

WSH

.734

OPS

.718

▶

.744

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.321

4.90

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.25

3.38

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.58

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

ATL 4 · WSH 11 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	4
WSH	3	1	0	0	1	0	3	3	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.242	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. BaldwinC	.310	4	2	1	1	1	1	2
O. Albies2B	.280	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Olson1B	.266	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Riley3B	.231	3	0	0	1	0	1	0
M. DubonSS	.313	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
M. Harris IICF	.286	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. HeimC	.222	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. WhiteRF	.208	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.197	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		35	4	8	4	2	3	6

Player

.242

.310

.280

.266

.231

.313

.286

.222

.208

.197

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LopezRP	1.0	5	4	4	3	1	58
J. SuarezRP	3.0	0	0	0	4	4	59
D. DoddRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	17
A. BummerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
I. HamiltonRP	1.0	2	3	3	2	1	31
J. PayampsRP	1.0	1	3	3	2	1	26
Team	8.0	10	11	11	12	10	201

Player

1.0

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

201

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.242	2	3	1	1	1	4	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.247	5	1	4	3	0	0	0
J. YoungCF	.254	4	1	1	2	0	1	0
C. AbramsSS	.296	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
D. LileLF	.276	3	0	0	1	0	2	0
N. Nunez2B	.181	4	1	1	1	0	1	2
J. Vivas3B	.302	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. TenaDH	.308	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MillasC	.171	5	1	1	0	0	0	3
B. House3B	.241	2	2	1	0	0	1	1
C. Mead1B	.217	2	2	1	3	1	1	1
Team		34	11	10	11	2	12	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GriffinSP	6.0	5	3	3	1	3	96
G. VarlandRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
C. PerezRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	25
C. BeeterRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	19
Team	9.0	8	4	4	3	6	153

Team

ATL

WSH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.