Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at WSH?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 23, 2026

FINAL+5ATL

ATL

18-8

WSH

11-15

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

14,613 attended

Line movement

36 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

WSH no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.0%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
41.6%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.2%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.4%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at WSH?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

WSH vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.0low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.8± 2.3medium
Cade CavalliWSH
5.3± 3.6medium

Hits

Nasim NunezWSH
1.2± 0.7high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.1± 0.7high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

CJ AbramsWSH
2.1± 2.0high
James WoodWSH
2.1± 2.3high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

Dylan CrewsWSH
0.8± 0.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 0.7high
Curtis MeadWSH
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
2.8± 2.9medium
JR RitchieATL
2.6± 2.6low
Miles MikolasWSH
2.5± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

WSH

.734

OPS

.718

▶

.744

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.321

4.90

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.32

3.38

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.59

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 7 · WSH 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	0	1	7
WSH	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.232	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. BaldwinC	.318	4	1	1	0	0	1	3
M. Olson1B	.282	5	2	3	0	0	0	2
A. Riley3B	.222	4	2	1	0	0	1	2
O. Albies2B	.297	4	2	3	4	1	0	1
M. Harris IICF	.318	4	0	3	2	0	0	0
D. SmithDH	.362	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. DubonSS	.281	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. YastrzemskiLF	.195	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MateoSS	.304	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. WhiteRF	.192	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		39	7	14	6	1	2	15

Player

.232

.318

.282

.222

.297

.318

.362

.281

.195

.304

.192

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. RitchieSP	7.0	5	2	2	2	7	89
D. LeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
C. CarrascoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	5	2	2	2	10	112

Player

J. RitchieSP

7.0

D. LeeRP

1.0

C. CarrascoRP

1.0

Team

9.0

112

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.255	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.244	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. TenaDH	.267	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. AbramsSS	.292	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
J. YoungCF	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.295	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
N. Nunez2B	.173	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Vivas3B	.300	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. RuizC	.191	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mead1B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. WiemerRF	.348	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MillasC	.171	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	5	2	2	2	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CavalliSP	5.0	7	2	2	0	10	85
R. LoveladyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
C. PerezRP	0.1	1	3	3	2	1	20
G. VarlandRP	0.2	3	1	1	0	1	13
J. FernandezRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	2	30
Team	9.0	14	7	7	2	15	159

Team

ATL

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

WSH vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.