Apr 5, 26sim 96
120
3(H)1
EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
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FINAL+3CHW
TOR
4-5
03
CHW
4-5
Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
22,326 attended
Line movement
10 snapshots
CHW spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
CHW no-vig %
40.7%
open 40.7%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.7%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
41.0%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.5%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.1%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.09 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHW vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
121
projections · 87 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Davis MartinCHW6.5± 2.9low
- Trey YesavageTOR5.8± 2.2low
- Sean BurkeCHW4.9± 2.9low
Hits
- Nathan LukesTOR1.3± 1.1high
- Ernie ClementTOR1.2± 0.8high
- Chase MeidrothCHW1.1± 0.8high
Total bases
- Ernie ClementTOR2.1± 2.0high
- Munetaka MurakamiCHW1.9± 1.9high
- Chase MeidrothCHW1.7± 1.6high
RBIs
- Munetaka MurakamiCHW0.8± 1.0high
- Jesus SanchezTOR0.7± 1.2high
- Chase MeidrothCHW0.6± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Erick FeddeCHW2.9± 2.8low
- Sean BurkeCHW2.3± 2.5low
- Kevin GausmanTOR2.2± 2.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
CHW wins
TOR 0 · CHW 3 (by 3)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked TOR +9pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CHW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
