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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3KC
KC

KC

1-2

4
1
ATL

ATL

2-1

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
37,961 attended

Line movement

5 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

ATL no-vig %

57.7%

open 57.7%

-1.0-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL61.7%53.7%ATL NO-VIG %MODEL 53.8%May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 4 · ATL 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0011100104
ATL0000000101

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Mar 29·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -153

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 4–1.

KC +1.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Carter Jensen

Carter Jensen

C

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC1-2
4
1
ATL2-1
KC1-2·ATL2-1
KC

KC

1-2

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44010010
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-33111010
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
2-44021000
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000001
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
1-33112102
SPRINT27.457
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
0-44000002
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-33000011
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
1-44210000
SPRINT2872
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-44010002
Team7-3333474138
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. LugoS. Lugo★SP
6.1500030
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
0.2000000
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.0111011
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0100010
Team9.0711051
ATL

ATL

2-1

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-44000000
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-44121101
SPRINT26.632
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-44000001
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-44000001
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT2744
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
2-44020000
SPRINT27.354
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-33000000
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-22010000
SPRINT25.716
J. MateoJ. Mateo★SS
0-33000001
K. FarmerK. FarmerDH
0-11000000
Team7-3333171105
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. HolmesG. Holmes★SP
5.0533241
D. FuentesD. FuentesRP
4.0211140
Team9.0744381

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • S. Lugo
    77 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      18%·92.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      17%·76.5 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      16%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·84.4 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      12%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      12%·90.2 mph·43% whiff
    • ST
      9%·78.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CS
      1%·69.6 mph·— whiff
    • SV
      1%·77.5 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      26%·92.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      22%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·82.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.2 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      42%·98.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      25%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      50%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·91.0 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • G. Holmes
    76 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      45%·85.3 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      28%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·84.1 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      5%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Fuentes
    56 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      66%·95.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      18%·88.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      16%·85.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Mar 27KCKC0@ATLATL6
Mar 28KCKC2@ATLATL6
Mar 29KCKC4@ATLATL1today

Season series

ATL wins series 2-1

Mar 27KCKC0@ATLATL6
Mar 28KCKC2@ATLATL6
Mar 29KCKC4@ATLATL1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

KCKC+12644%
ATLATL-15360%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 4th Inning

KCKC
C. Jensen

C. Jensen

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

S. Lugo

S. Lugo

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 5 H

ATLATL
D. Baldwin

D. Baldwin

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

G. Holmes

G. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

KC beat ATL 4-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 52% WP

Witt Jr. · singled to right, Loftin scored, Garcia to third.

KCTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 63% WP

Jensen · homered to right center (371 feet).

KCTop 5th Inning · 3-0
+10pp→ 80% WP

Pasquantino · singled to right, Loftin scored, Garcia to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0011100104
ATL0000000101

Period scoring

KC won 3 · ATL won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Jr. 1

1
0

Inn 4

Jensen 1

1
0

Inn 5

Pasquantino 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
1

Inn 8

Jensen 1

Baldwin 1

0
0

Inn 9

KC
ATL

Play-by-play · 502 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    KC 4·ATL 1

  2. B9

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  3. B9

    Albies grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Yastrzemski out at second.

    · ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  7. B9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Ozzie Albies

    · ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  8. B9

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  9. B9

    Yastrzemski singled to left.

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

    +2pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  14. B9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  15. B9

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  16. B9

    Riley struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

    −3pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  22. B9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Austin Riley

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  23. B9

    Erceg relieved Schreiber

    ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  24. B9

    Collins in left field.

    KC 4·ATL 1

  25. B9

    Thomas in right field.

    KC 4·ATL 1

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    KC 4·ATL 1

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    KC 4·ATL 1

  28. T9

    · ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  29. T9

    Garcia fouled out to right.

    · ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 4·ATL 1

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

4

Runs

1

7

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

11

TB

11

1

HR

1

3

BB

0

8

K

5

13

LOB

10

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 8·KC +126/ATL -153

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+126

Close price

+126

Open no-vig

42.3%

Close no-vig

42.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

ATL vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.6± 3.2high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.1%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    54.8%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.5%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.7%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 29, 26sim 97
    60
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 97
    65
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 96
    110
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    111
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    253
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    172
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs