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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7NYM
NYM

NYM

4-4

10
3
SF

SF

3-5

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
38,613 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SF no-vig %

46.7%

open 46.7%

+2.0+1.0SF SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL50.7%42.7%SF NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 10 · SF 3 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SF +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM20030030210
SF0000020103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.7%

Close no-vig

46.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Fri, Apr 3·Final/SeriesNYM win series 3-1/VegasNYM -126

Recap · MLB

New York Mets went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 10–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NYM -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez

C

2.000OPS

5-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Heliot Ramos

Heliot Ramos

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM4-4
10
3
SF3-5
NYM4-4·SF3-5
NYM

NYM

4-4

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
2-44220011
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-11010000
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
3-55231001
SPRINT25.716
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-33111020
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-55111003
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
2-33121021
SPRINT25.513
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
3-55133101
SPRINT28.175
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
0-44001011
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
2-55222201
SPRINT25.716
T. TaylorT. TaylorCF
0-44000001
Team15-39391015103610
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. McLeanN. McLean★SP
5.1121240
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
0.2000010
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
1.0100010
R. LoveladyR. LoveladyRP
1.0211110
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
1.0100010
Team9.0532380
SF

SF

3-5

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-33011011
SPRINT27.457
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-44000003
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-44011000
SPRINT26.632
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-44000001
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-44000000
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT27.251
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-33100011
SPRINT27.662
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-33100010
J. EncarnacionJ. Encarnacion★RF
1-33110001
SPRINT26.735
Team5-3232352038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MahleT. Mahle★SP
5.0855242
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
1.1333221
M. GageM. GageRP
1.2200120
E. MillerE. MillerRP
0.2222110
C. KilianC. KilianRP
0.1000010
Team9.01510106103

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SF

  • C. Kilian
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      17%·80.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.4 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

5

10

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYM win series 3-1

Apr 3NYMNYM2@SFSF7
Apr 4NYMNYM10@SFSF3today
Apr 5NYMNYM9@SFSF0
Apr 5NYMNYM5@SFSF2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 3NYMNYM2@SFSF7
Apr 4NYMNYM10@SFSF3today
Apr 5NYMNYM9@SFSF0
Apr 5NYMNYM5@SFSF2
Sep 4SFSF@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 5SFSF@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 6SFSF@NYMNYMupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM-12656%
SFSF+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 1st Inning

NYMNYM
J. Soto

J. Soto

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

SFSF
H. Ramos

H. Ramos

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

T. Mahle

T. Mahle

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYM beat SF 10-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 36% WP

Baty · grounded into double play, pitcher to catcher to first, Robert Jr. to second, Bichette to third, Soto out at home.

NYMTop 4th Inning · 4-0
+12pp→ 89% WP

Semien · homered to center (407 feet), Vientos scored.

SFBottom 6th Inning · 5-1
+7pp→ 16% WP

Adames · hit a ground rule double, Bader scored, Bailey to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM20030030210
SF0000020103

Period scoring

NYM won 4 · SF won 2

2
0

Inn 1

Bichette 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

3
0

Inn 4

Semien 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Adames 1

3
0

Inn 7

Alvarez 1

0
1

Inn 8

Arraez 1

2
0

Inn 9

Baty 1

NYM
SF

Play-by-play · 666 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYM 10·SF 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  3. B9

    Bailey flied out to right.

    · ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  5. B9

    Ramos to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  6. B9

    Ramos to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  9. B9

    Luis Garcia pitches to Patrick Bailey

    · ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  10. B9

    · ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  11. B9

    Bader struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  15. B9

    Luis Garcia pitches to Harrison Bader

    · ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  16. B9

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  17. B9

    Ramos singled to right.

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  20. B9

    Luis Garcia pitches to Heliot Ramos

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  21. B9

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  22. B9

    Lee lined out to center.

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  29. B9

    Luis Garcia pitches to Jung Hoo Lee

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

  30. B9

    Garcia relieved Lovelady

    ·

    NYM 10·SF 3

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

SF

Home

10

Runs

3

15

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

26

TB

7

3

HR

0

6

BB

3

10

K

8

22

LOB

12

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 7.5·NYM -126/SF +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

SF vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.8%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    54.0%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.1%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.8%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 18, 26sim 96
    249
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 95
    65
    29(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 95
    289
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 94
    14
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 94
    262
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 94
    12
    23(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175