
NYM
4-4

SF
3-5
Line movement
10 snapshots
SF spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
SF no-vig %
46.7%
open 46.7%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
NYM wins
NYM 10 · SF 3 (by 7)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked SF +4pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+105
Close price
+105
Open no-vig
46.7%
Close no-vig
46.7%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Recap · MLB
ew York Mets went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 10–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
NYM -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 5.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NYM · top performer

Francisco Alvarez
C
5-2
AB-H
2
R
2
RBI
SF · top performer

Heliot Ramos
LF
4-2
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


NYM
4-4
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.941 | ||||||||
| 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.513 | ||||||||
| 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.175 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 15-39 | 39 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
SF
3-5
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.457 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.632 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.251 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.662 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.735 | ||||||||
| Team | 5-32 | 32 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.0 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantNYM
No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.
SF
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
15
Hits
5
10
Runs
3
0
Errors
0
Current series
NYM win series 3-1
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYM -1.5
Total
7.5
Defensive · -1.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 10 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
7.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 1st Inning
J. Soto
LFBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS
N. McLean
SPStarting pitcher
5.1 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 2 BB
H. Ramos
LFBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS
T. Mahle
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 2 BB
How it ended
NYM beat SF 10-3.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
SF vs NYM
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBaty · grounded into double play, pitcher to catcher to first, Robert Jr. to second, Bichette to third, Soto out at home.
Semien · homered to center (407 feet), Vientos scored.
Adames · hit a ground rule double, Bader scored, Bailey to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Period scoring
NYM won 4 · SF won 2
Inn 1
Bichette 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Semien 2
Inn 5
Inn 6
Adames 1
Inn 7
Alvarez 1
Inn 8
Arraez 1
Inn 9
Baty 1
Play-by-play · 666 plays
End of the 9th inning
NYM 10·SF 3
· ·
NYM 10·SF 3
Bailey flied out to right.
· ·
NYM 10·SF 3
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYM 10·SF 3
Ramos to second on fielder's indifference.
·
NYM 10·SF 3
Ramos to second on fielder's indifference.
·
NYM 10·SF 3
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
NYM 10·SF 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
NYM 10·SF 3
Luis Garcia pitches to Patrick Bailey
· ·
NYM 10·SF 3
· ·
NYM 10·SF 3
Bader struck out swinging.
· ·
NYM 10·SF 3
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
NYM 10·SF 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
NYM 10·SF 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
NYM 10·SF 3
Luis Garcia pitches to Harrison Bader
· ·
NYM 10·SF 3
·
NYM 10·SF 3
Ramos singled to right.
·
NYM 10·SF 3
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
NYM 10·SF 3
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
NYM 10·SF 3
Luis Garcia pitches to Heliot Ramos
·
NYM 10·SF 3
·
NYM 10·SF 3
Lee lined out to center.
·
NYM 10·SF 3
Pitch 6 : Ball In Play
·
NYM 10·SF 3
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
NYM 10·SF 3
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking
·
NYM 10·SF 3
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
NYM 10·SF 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
·
NYM 10·SF 3
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
NYM 10·SF 3
Luis Garcia pitches to Jung Hoo Lee
·
NYM 10·SF 3
Garcia relieved Lovelady
·
NYM 10·SF 3
Team stats
NYM
Away
Stat
SF
Home
10
Runs
3
15
Hits
5
0
Errors
0
26
TB
7
3
HR
0
6
BB
3
10
K
8
22
LOB
12
Betting line
NYM -1.5·O/U 7.5·NYM -126/SF +105
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 66 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
52.8%
ensemble · SF favored
Elo Static
54.0%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.1%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.8%
P(SF win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.51 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
4 of 16 players in cohort