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FINAL+5MIA
MIA

MIA

13-13

9
4
SF

SF

11-15

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
38,317 attended

Line movement

25 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SF no-vig %

48.9%

open 48.9%

+2.0+1.0SF SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL52.9%44.9%SF NO-VIG %MODEL 50.3%May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 9 · SF 4 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SF +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA3113010009
SF0000300104

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Fri, Apr 24·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasMIA -115

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 9–4.

MIA -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Xavier Edwards

Xavier Edwards

2B

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Jung Hoo Lee

Jung Hoo Lee

RF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA13-13
9
4
SF11-15
MIA13-13·SF11-15
MIA

MIA

13-13

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
1-66110001
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
3-55230001
SPRINT2622
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
3-55031001
SPRINT28.381
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
3-44131010
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-44113101
SPRINT25.614
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-55010000
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
1-33210011
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
2-33121011
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
1-55113100
SPRINT2872
H. HernandezH. HernandezLF
0-11000000
Team16-41419169246
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. AlcantaraS. Alcantara★SP
6.0933140
L. BacharL. BacharRP
2.0211011
J. KingJ. KingRP
1.0000110
Team9.01144261
SF

SF

11-15

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-55000002
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
3-55031000
SPRINT26.632
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-44010000
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-44000002
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44010000
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
3-44131100
SPRINT27.148
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-33110011
SPRINT27.251
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
1-33111001
SPRINT26.428
E. HaaseE. Haase★C
1-33111000
C. KossC. Koss2B
0-11000000
Team11-36364114126
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. HouserA. Houser★SP
4.01188132
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
3.0311130
C. KilianC. KilianRP
1.0100100
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
1.0100100
Team9.01699462

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

Hits

11

9

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Apr 25MIAMIA9@SFSF4today
Apr 25MIAMIA2@SFSF6
Apr 26MIAMIA3@SFSF6

Season series

MIA leads series 1-0

Apr 25MIAMIA9@SFSF4today
Apr 25MIAMIA2@SFSF6
Apr 26MIAMIA3@SFSF6
Jun 19SFSF@MIAMIAupcoming
Jun 20SFSF@MIAMIAupcoming
Jun 21SFSF@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA-11553%
SFSF-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 1st Inning

MIAMIA
X. Edwards

X. Edwards

2B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.550 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

SFSF
J. Lee

J. Lee

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 8 ER · 11 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIA beat SF 9-4.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 1st Inning · 3-0
+17pp→ 75% WP

Hicks · homered to right center (390 feet), Edwards scored.

MIATop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+14pp→ 82% WP

Caissie · doubled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA3113010009
SF0000300104

Period scoring

MIA won 5 · SF won 2

3
0

Inn 1

Hicks 2

1
0

Inn 2

Pauley 1

1
0

Inn 3

Hicks 1

3
0

Inn 4

Norby 3

0
3

Inn 5

Gilbert 1

1
0

Inn 6

Lopez 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Lee 1

0
0

Inn 9

MIA
SF

Play-by-play · 633 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIA 9·SF 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  3. B9

    Arraez grounded out to third.

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  7. B9

    John King pitches to Luis Arraez

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  8. B9

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  9. B9

    Adames struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

    −0.6pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  13. B9

    John King pitches to Willy Adames

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  14. B9

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  15. B9

    Koss flied out to right.

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

    −0.9pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  18. B9

    John King pitches to Christian Koss

    · ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  19. B9

    Koss hit for Haase

    ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  20. B9

    ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  21. B9

    Encarnacion walked.

    ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

    +0.9pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  28. B9

    John King pitches to Jerar Encarnacion

    ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  29. B9

    King relieved Bachar

    ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

  30. B9

    Encarnacion hit for Gilbert

    ·

    MIA 9·SF 4

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

SF

Home

9

Runs

4

16

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

28

TB

16

2

HR

1

4

BB

2

6

K

6

19

LOB

12

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIA -115/SF -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

SF vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    52.2%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.4%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.8%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 24, 26sim 97
    23
    1(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 97
    49
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 96
    43
    26(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 95
    236
    26(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 95
    1610
    23(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 95
    65
    29(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs