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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5STL
STL

STL

11-8

9
4
HOU

HOU

8-13

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
33,086 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

HOU no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

+2.0+1.0HOU SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL57.2%49.2%HOU NO-VIG %MODEL 51.8%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 6 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 9 · HOU 4 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL1021003209
HOU0020100104

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 30, 26sim 96
    183
    1(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 96
    289
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 96
    17
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 96
    247
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 96
    2110
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 96
    18
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Apr 17·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 3-0/VegasHOU -126

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals went into Houston Astros and beat them, 9–4.

STL -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Ivan Herrera

Ivan Herrera

DH

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Christian Vazquez

Christian Vazquez

C

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL11-8
9
4
HOU8-13
STL11-8·HOU8-13
STL

STL

11-8

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
1-33310010
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
2-44223100
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
2-44120011
SPRINT25.513
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-44111012
SPRINT28.891
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-55113103
SPRINT257
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-55012000
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
1-33010011
P. PagesP. Pages★C
1-44110000
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-44000002
Team10-36369109249
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. LeahyK. Leahy★SP
5.0533063
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
1.0000000
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.0100000
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0211230
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
1.0000010
Team9.08442103
HOU

HOU

8-13

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-55111101
SPRINT27.867
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
2-55121100
SPRINT24.64
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-55110001
SPRINT27.251
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-44000002
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
0-33000001
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-22000010
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
2-44021001
SPRINT2744
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
2-33121111
SPRINT22.90
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-11000000
B. MatthewsB. MatthewsCF
0-11000001
I. ParedesI. Paredes3B
0-22000001
S. WhitcombS. Whitcomb3B
0-11000001
Team8-36364843210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. LambertP. Lambert★SP
5.0744180
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.0000100
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.0233101
J.P. FranceJ.P. FranceSP
2.0122111
Team9.01099492

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • G. Soriano
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      41%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·85.8 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      12%·88.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      12%·84.2 mph·— whiff

HOU

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

8

9

Runs

4

2

Errors

1

Current series

STL wins series 3-0

Apr 18STLSTL9@HOUHOU4today
Apr 18STLSTL7@HOUHOU5
Apr 19STLSTL7@HOUHOU5

Season series

STL leads series 1-0

Apr 18STLSTL9@HOUHOU4today
Apr 18STLSTL7@HOUHOU5
Apr 19STLSTL7@HOUHOU5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+10449%
HOUHOU-12656%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 7th Inning

STLSTL
I. Herrera

I. Herrera

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

K. Leahy

K. Leahy

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 5 H

HOUHOU
C. Vazquez

C. Vazquez

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

P. Lambert

P. Lambert

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

STL beat HOU 9-4. Gorman's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

HOU vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+16pp→ 81% WP

Winn · singled to left, Herrera scored and Wetherholt scored, Burleson to third.

HOUBottom 5th Inning · 4-3
+15pp→ 44% WP

Altuve · homered to left (384 feet).

STLTop 7th Inning · 7-3
+24pp→ 93% WP

Gorman · homered to right (353 feet), Burleson scored and Walker scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL1021003209
HOU0020100104

Period scoring

STL won 4 · HOU won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Walker 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
2

Inn 3

Winn 2

Alvarez 1

1
0

Inn 4

Herrera 1

0
1

Inn 5

Altuve 1

0
0

Inn 6

3
0

Inn 7

Gorman 3

2
1

Inn 8

Herrera 2

Trammell 1

0
0

Inn 9

STL
HOU

Play-by-play · 599 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    STL 9·HOU 4

  2. B9

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  3. B9

    Correa flied out to right.

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  10. B9

    George Soriano pitches to Carlos Correa

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  11. B9

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  12. B9

    Alvarez grounded out to second.

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  15. B9

    George Soriano pitches to Yordan Alvarez

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  16. B9

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  17. B9

    Altuve struck out looking.

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  22. B9

    George Soriano pitches to Jose Altuve

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  23. B9

    Soriano relieved Stanek

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    STL 9·HOU 4

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    STL 9·HOU 4

  26. T9

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  27. T9

    Winn flied out to center.

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

  30. T9

    J.P. France pitches to Masyn Winn

    ·

    STL 9·HOU 4

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

9

Runs

4

10

Hits

8

2

Errors

1

18

TB

18

2

HR

3

4

BB

2

9

K

10

20

LOB

17

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 9·STL +104/HOU -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

HOU vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.5%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    53.3%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.1%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.9%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.