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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2CIN
CIN

CIN

4-3

5
3
TEX

TEX

4-3

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
37,635 attended

Line movement

20 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TEX no-vig %

59.7%

open 59.7%

-1.0-2.0TEX SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL63.7%55.7%TEX NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 9 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 5 · TEX 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0200010025
TEX0200001003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 28, 26sim 98
    65
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 98
    66
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    234
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 96
    252
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    283
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 96
    72
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+137

Close price

+137

Open no-vig

40.3%

Close no-vig

40.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, Apr 3·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 3-0/VegasTEX -166

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into Texas Rangers and beat them, 5–3.

CIN +1.5 cashed (TEX lost outright). Total pushed exactly on 8.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Spencer Steer

Spencer Steer

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo

RF

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN4-3
5
3
TEX4-3
CIN4-3·TEX4-3
CIN

CIN

4-3

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
2-55020000
SPRINT28.586
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
0-44000002
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-44111102
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
0-44000001
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
2-44120001
SPRINT25.818
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
2-44222101
SPRINT28.483
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
2-44122101
SPRINT26.735
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
0-22000001
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
1-44010001
W. BensonW. BensonRF
0-22000001
Team10-373751053011
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SingerB. Singer★SP
5.0622150
S. MollS. MollRP
1.0000110
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0211020
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0000000
E. PaganE. PaganRP
1.0000010
Team9.0833290
TEX

TEX

4-3

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
2-44120012
SPRINT28.278
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
2-44021000
SPRINT2872
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-44000003
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-44010001
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-22000000
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-44000000
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-33110010
SPRINT25.920
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-44110002
SPRINT28.175
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
1-44012001
SPRINT26.838
A. McCutchenA. McCutchenDH
0-22000000
Team8-3535383029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. GoreM. Gore★SP
6.0633092
C. WinnC. WinnRP
1.0200010
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.0000010
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.0222001
Team9.010550113

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • B. Singer
    87 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      51%·91.7 mph·16% whiff
    • SL
      31%·82.9 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      7%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·82.1 mph·33% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FC
      65%·98.9 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      35%·92.3 mph·67% whiff
  • E. Pagan
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      77%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      23%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • S. Moll
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      58%·81.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      17%·82.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Santillan
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      70%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      30%·84.0 mph·0% whiff

TEX

  • M. Gore
    88 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      48%·95.7 mph·32% whiff
    • CU
      28%·81.3 mph·36% whiff
    • CH
      20%·86.9 mph·18% whiff
    • FC
      3%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Martin
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FC
      35%·91.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      35%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      13%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·85.1 mph·— whiff
  • C. Winn
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FS
      29%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      24%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Junis
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SL
      42%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·85.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      17%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·90.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

8

5

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

CIN wins series 3-0

Apr 3CINCIN5@TEXTEX3today
Apr 4CINCIN2@TEXTEX0
Apr 5CINCIN2@TEXTEX1

Season series

CIN leads series 1-0

Apr 3CINCIN5@TEXTEX3today
Apr 4CINCIN2@TEXTEX0
Apr 5CINCIN2@TEXTEX1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CINCIN+13742%
TEXTEX-16662%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 30pp · Top 9th Inning

CINCIN
S. Steer

S. Steer

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Singer

B. Singer

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

TEXTEX
B. Nimmo

B. Nimmo

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.100 OPS

M. Gore

M. Gore

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 9 K · 3 ER · 6 H

How it ended

CIN beat TEX 5-3. Stephenson's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TEX vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXBottom 2nd Inning · 2-2
+22pp→ 65% WP

Jansen · doubled to left, Carter scored and Jung scored.

CINTop 6th Inning · 3-2
+23pp→ 59% WP

De La Cruz · homered to left center (385 feet).

CINTop 9th Inning · 5-3
+30pp→ 93% WP

Stephenson · homered to right center (382 feet), Steer scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0200010025
TEX0200001003

Period scoring

CIN won 2 · TEX won 1

0
0

Inn 1

2
2

Inn 2

Steer 2

Jansen 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Cruz 1

0
1

Inn 7

Langford 1

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Stephenson 2

CIN
TEX

Play-by-play · 549 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  2. B9

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  3. B9

    Nimmo struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  10. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Brandon Nimmo

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  11. B9

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  12. B9

    Jansen popped out to third.

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

    −3pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  18. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Danny Jansen

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  19. B9

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  20. B9

    Carter lined out to center.

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

    −5pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  23. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Evan Carter

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  24. B9

    Pagán relieved Santillan

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  25. B9

    Friedl in left field.

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  28. T9

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  29. T9

    McLain flied out to right.

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 5·TEX 3

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

5

Runs

3

10

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

20

TB

16

3

HR

0

0

BB

2

11

K

9

10

LOB

12

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 8·CIN +137/TEX -166

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TEX vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    55.5%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.2%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.6%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.