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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3ATL
MIA

MIA

9-10

3
6
ATL

ATL

12-7

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
28,884 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ATL no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

-1.0-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL63.3%55.3%ATL NO-VIG %MODEL 56.0%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

MIA 3 · ATL 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0000000303
ATL020001306

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 21, 26sim 97
    116
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 97
    66
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 96
    175
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    234
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 96
    295
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 96
    285
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Wed, Apr 15·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -163

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Miami Marlins, 6–3.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total pushed exactly on 9.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Liam Hicks

Liam Hicks

C

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Austin Riley

Austin Riley

3B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA9-10
3
6
ATL12-7
MIA9-10·ATL12-7
MIA

MIA

9-10

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-44000012
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-44010010
SPRINT2872
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
2-44120002
SPRINT28.381
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-44112101
SPRINT25.614
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
2-44120001
SPRINT2872
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
0-22000001
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-44001003
SPRINT28.483
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
1-44010000
D. De Los SantosD. De Los Santos★1B
1-33010001
A. RamirezA. RamirezC
0-11000001
Team8-34343831412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PaddackC. Paddack★SP
4.2522041
J. KingJ. KingRP
1.1211011
A. NardiA. NardiRP
1.0433011
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0000010
Team8.01166073
ATL

ATL

12-7

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
2-44120002
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-44121002
SPRINT26.632
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44112101
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
2-44121100
SPRINT27.765
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-44111100
SPRINT27.354
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
1-33110000
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-44010000
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-44011000
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-44000002
Team11-35356116307
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ElderB. Elder★SP
5.2400270
D. LeeD. LeeRP
0.1000110
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0000010
O. BidoO. BidoRP
0.1333101
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
0.2000000
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0100030
Team9.08334121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • C. Paddack
    92 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      34%·93.6 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      21%·84.8 mph·27% whiff
    • FC
      15%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      12%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·78.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·76.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Nardi
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. King
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      31%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·79.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      6%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·81.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Faucher
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • CU
      33%·85.4 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      33%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·90.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.7 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • B. Elder
    79 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      38%·83.6 mph·53% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Bido
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      53%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      64%·86.5 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      29%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.9 mph·— whiff
  • D. Lee
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      50%·83.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      42%·84.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      8%·94.1 mph·— whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    12 pitches·75% CSW
    • CH
      50%·88.3 mph·83% whiff
    • FF
      42%·93.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.1 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • CH
      50%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

11

3

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Apr 13MIAMIA10@ATLATL4
Apr 14MIAMIA5@ATLATL6
Apr 15MIAMIA3@ATLATL6today

Season series

ATL leads series 2-1

Apr 13MIAMIA10@ATLATL4
Apr 14MIAMIA5@ATLATL6
Apr 15MIAMIA3@ATLATL6today
May 18ATLATL0@MIAMIA12
May 19ATLATL8@MIAMIA4
May 20ATLATL9@MIAMIA1
May 21ATLATL9@MIAMIA3
Aug 4MIAMIA@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 5MIAMIA@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 6MIAMIA@ATLATLupcoming
Sep 25ATLATL@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 26ATLATL@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 27ATLATL@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA+13543%
ATLATL-16362%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 5th Inning

MIAMIA
L. Hicks

L. Hicks

C

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

C. Paddack

C. Paddack

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H

ATLATL
A. Riley

A. Riley

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Elder

B. Elder

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATL beat MIA 6-3.

Win probability

ATL vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 77% WP

Albies · homered to right center (370 feet).

ATLBottom 5th Inning · 0-2
+13pp→ 86% WP

Dub · ón flied out to right.

ATLTop 8th Inning · 3-6
+7pp→ 98% WP

Pauley · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Hernández out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0000000303
ATL02000130—6

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · ATL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Albies 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Riley 1

0
3

Inn 7

Olson 2

3
0

Inn 8

Hicks 2

0

Inn 9

MIA
ATL

Play-by-play · 551 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  2. T9

    Lopez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  6. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Otto Lopez

    · ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  7. T9

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  8. T9

    Edwards singled to center.

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

    −0.9pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  12. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Xavier Edwards

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  13. T9

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  14. T9

    Marsee struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

    +1pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  18. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Jakob Marsee

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  19. T9

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  20. T9

    Ramírez struck out looking.

    · ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

    +2pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  24. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Agustin Ramirez

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  25. T9

    Iglesias relieved R. Suarez

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  26. T9

    Ramírez hit for De Los Santos

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  29. B8

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

  30. B8

    M. Harris II struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIA 3·ATL 6

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

3

Runs

6

8

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

13

TB

22

1

HR

3

4

BB

0

12

K

7

16

LOB

10

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 9·MIA +135/ATL -163

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872
  • Connor NorbyMIA · 1B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

ATL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.4%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    56.4%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.9%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.9%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.