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FINAL+3DET
DET

DET

2-0

5
2
SD

SD

0-2

Petco Park · San Diego, California
44,896 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SD no-vig %

54.0%

open 54.0%

-1.0-2.0SD SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL58.0%50.0%SD NO-VIG %MODEL 54.8%May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 5 · SD 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0000010405
SD0001010002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Mar 27·Final/SeriesDET wins series 2-1/VegasSD -130

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 5–2.

DET +1.5 cashed (SD lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Gleyber Torres

Gleyber Torres

2B

1.300OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Jackson Merrill

Jackson Merrill

CF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET2-0
5
2
SD0-2
DET2-0·SD0-2
DET

DET

2-0

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-33100023
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-22210031
SPRINT25.18
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-22010000
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-55111000
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-44011002
SPRINT26.123
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-33012010
SPRINT28.278
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-33011001
SPRINT27.765
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
0-11000011
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-44000001
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-11000000
C. KeithC. Keith3B
0-11100010
M. VierlingM. VierlingCF
0-22000000
Team6-3131565089
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. ValdezF. Valdez★SP
6.0721150
E. De JesusE. De JesusRP
1.0100020
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.0000120
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0000030
Team9.08212120
SD

SD

0-2

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
0-44000001
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-44010000
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-33110010
SPRINT24.32
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
2-33120010
SPRINT28.688
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-44011001
SPRINT26.530
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-44011001
SPRINT2872
T. FranceT. France★1B
0-33000002
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
2-44020002
SPRINT28.891
L. CampusanoL. Campusano★C
0-33000003
G. SheetsG. Sheets1B
0-11000001
N. CastellanosN. CastellanosRF
0-11000001
Team8-34342820212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KingM. King★SP
5.0110460
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
2.0100010
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
0.2144320
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
0.1200000
D. MorganD. MorganRP
1.0100100
Team9.0654890

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

5

Runs

2

1

Errors

1

Current series

DET wins series 2-1

Mar 26DETDET8@SDSD2
Mar 28DETDET5@SDSD2today
Mar 29DETDET0@SDSD3

Season series

DET leads series 2-0

Mar 26DETDET8@SDSD2
Mar 28DETDET5@SDSD2today
Mar 29DETDET0@SDSD3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+10848%
SDSD-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 38pp · Top 8th Inning

DETDET
G. Torres

G. Torres

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 2 R · 1.300 OPS

F. Valdez

F. Valdez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

SDSD
J. Merrill

J. Merrill

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

M. King

M. King

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 4 BB

How it ended

DET beat SD 5-2. McGonigle's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (38pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SD vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 6th Inning · 0-1
+17pp→ 76% WP

Greene · grounded into double play, pitcher to shortstop to first, Jones out at second, Torres to third.

SDBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+20pp→ 80% WP

Laureano · doubled to right, Merrill scored.

DETTop 8th Inning · 4-2
+38pp→ 85% WP

McGonigle · singled to right, Keith scored and Torres scored, Greene to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0000010405
SD0001010002

Period scoring

DET won 1 · SD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Andujar 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
1

Inn 6

Torkelson 1

Laureano 1

0
0

Inn 7

4
0

Inn 8

McGonigle 2

0
0

Inn 9

DET
SD

Play-by-play · 574 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    DET 5·SD 2

  2. B9

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  3. B9

    Castellanos struck out swinging.

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  8. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Nick Castellanos

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  9. B9

    Castellanos hit for Campusano

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  10. B9

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  11. B9

    Cronenworth struck out swinging.

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

    −1pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  16. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Jake Cronenworth

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  17. B9

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  18. B9

    Sheets struck out swinging.

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

    −2pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  22. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Gavin Sheets

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  23. B9

    Jansen relieved Finnegan

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  24. B9

    Sheets hit for France

    ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    DET 5·SD 2

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    DET 5·SD 2

  27. T9

    · ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  28. T9

    Greene grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 5·SD 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 5·SD 2

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

SD

Home

5

Runs

2

6

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

6

TB

11

0

HR

0

8

BB

2

9

K

12

24

LOB

21

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 7.5·DET +108/SD -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 3, 26sim 98
    175
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 97
    234
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 97
    74
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 97
    252
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    66
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 96
    115
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

SD vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.8± 2.4low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    1.6± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Ty FranceSD
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.9%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    55.5%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.1%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.