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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PIT
PIT

PIT

9-5

4
3
CHC

CHC

6-8

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
34,049 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 6.5

open O/U 6.5

CHC no-vig %

57.2%

open 57.2%

-1.0-2.0CHC SPREADO/U 7.0O/U 6.0TOTAL61.2%53.2%CHC NO-VIG %MODEL 55.1%May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 4 · CHC 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
PIT012000000014
CHC000010101003

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 3, 26sim 98
    252
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 98
    293
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 98
    294
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 97
    66
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 97
    65
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 97
    115
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Apr 11·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1/VegasCHC -149

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

PIT +1.5 cashed (CHC lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Oneil Cruz

Oneil Cruz

CF

1.633OPS

5-4

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Moises Ballesteros

Moises Ballesteros

DH

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
PIT9-5
4
3
CHC6-8
PIT9-5·CHC6-8
PIT

PIT

9-5

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
4-55140010
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-44100021
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
2-55021001
SPRINT27.969
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
0-33001010
SPRINT26.735
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-44100011
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
3-44030011
SPRINT27.662
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-44010000
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
1-55010002
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-44000004
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
0-11000001
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales3B
0-11100000
J. BartJ. BartC
0-11000001
Team11-414141120612
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. AshcraftB. Ashcraft★SP
5.0411190
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.0100020
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
0.2111100
G. SotoG. SotoRP
0.1000000
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0200010
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0111200
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
2.0000320
Team11.09337140
CHC

CHC

6-8

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-66011000
SPRINT28.278
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-33000002
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
2-66021001
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-55000012
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
2-22020000
SPRINT24.53
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-44010013
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
0-44100014
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
1-33110021
SPRINT2622
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44111010
SPRINT27.867
C. KellyC. KellyC
0-11000010
M. ShawM. ShawRF
0-11000000
S. SuzukiS. SuzukiRF
1-44010001
Team9-43433930714
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. CabreraE. Cabrera★SP
5.0833340
B. BrownB. BrownRP
2.0200130
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
1.0100020
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.0000000
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0000100
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0010130
Team11.011436120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • B. Ashcraft
    77 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      38%·96.9 mph·7% whiff
    • CU
      35%·84.7 mph·75% whiff
    • SL
      12%·91.7 mph·63% whiff
    • SI
      9%·97.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      6%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    32 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      44%·84.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      41%·95.6 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      13%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·84.9 mph·— whiff
  • D. Santana
    27 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      41%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      26%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      26%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      71%·94.6 mph·10% whiff
    • CU
      17%·83.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      8%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·84.2 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • FF
      62%·99.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·88.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      69%·96.2 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      31%·82.3 mph·— whiff
  • G. Soto
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      100%·93.1 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • E. Cabrera
    98 pitches·28% CSW
    • CH
      35%·92.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      23%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.1 mph·44% whiff
    • CU
      17%·84.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      4%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Brown
    34 pitches·35% CSW
    • KC
      44%·87.1 mph·63% whiff
    • FF
      32%·96.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      21%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·91.0 mph·— whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      42%·93.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      26%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·89.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      16%·82.9 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Webb
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • ST
      41%·83.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      29%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    17 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      76%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Milner
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      58%·86.9 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      25%·77.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·80.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

9

4

Runs

3

1

Errors

3

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Apr 10PITPIT2@CHCCHC0
Apr 11PITPIT4@CHCCHC3today
Apr 12PITPIT6@CHCCHC7

Season series

PIT leads series 2-0

Apr 10PITPIT2@CHCCHC0
Apr 11PITPIT4@CHCCHC3today
Apr 12PITPIT6@CHCCHC7
May 25CHCCHC1@PITPIT2
May 26CHCCHC1@PITPIT12
May 27CHCCHC10@PITPIT4
May 28CHCCHC7@PITPIT2
Jul 24CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Jul 25CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Jul 26CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Sep 11PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 12PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 13PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+12345%
CHCCHC-14960%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 42pp · Bottom 9th Inning

PITPIT
O. Cruz

O. Cruz

CF

Batter of the game

4-for-5 · 1 R · 1.633 OPS

B. Ashcraft

B. Ashcraft

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

CHCCHC
M. Ballesteros

M. Ballesteros

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

E. Cabrera

E. Cabrera

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

How it ended

PIT beat CHC 4-3. Bregman's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (42pp).

Last play

End of the 11th inning

Win probability

CHC vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 9th Inning · 3-3
+42pp→ 62% WP

Bregman · singled to center, Swanson scored, Shaw to third.

PITTop 11th Inning · 4-3
+33pp→ 63% WP

Gonzales · scored on error, Lowe safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Thielbar, Cruz safe at third on error.

PITBottom 11th Inning · 4-3
+32pp→ 76% WP

Bregman · fouled out to first.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
PIT012000000014
CHC000010101003

Period scoring

PIT won 3 · CHC won 3

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Horwitz 1

2
0

Inn 3

Reynolds 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Hoerner 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Swanson 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Bregman 1

0
0

Inn 10

1
0

Inn 11

Gonzales 1

PIT
CHC

Play-by-play · 780 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 11

    End of the 11th inning

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  2. B11

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  3. B11

    Suzuki fouled out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

    −27pp

  4. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  5. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  6. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  7. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  8. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  9. B11

    Yohan Ramirez pitches to Seiya Suzuki

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  10. B11

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  11. B11

    Happ intentionally walked.

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

    +3pp

  12. B11

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  13. B11

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  14. B11

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  15. B11

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  16. B11

    Yohan Ramirez pitches to Ian Happ

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  17. B11

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  18. B11

    Bregman fouled out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

    −32pp

  19. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  20. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  21. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  22. B11

    Yohan Ramirez pitches to Alex Bregman

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  23. B11

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  24. B11

    Shaw lined out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

    −17pp

  25. B11

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  26. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  27. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  28. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  29. B11

    Yohan Ramirez pitches to Matt Shaw

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

  30. B11

    · ·

    PIT 4·CHC 3

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

4

Runs

3

11

Hits

9

1

Errors

3

13

TB

9

0

HR

0

6

BB

7

12

K

14

25

LOB

31

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +123/CHC -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CHC vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.1%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    55.7%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.2%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.2%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.