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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4ATL
ATH

ATH

0-4

0
4
ATL

ATL

3-1

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
24,478 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ATL no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

-1.0-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL57.2%49.2%ATL NO-VIG %MODEL 54.4%May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATH 0 · ATL 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0000000000
ATL300000014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Mon, Mar 30·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -126

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Athletics, 4–0.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Carlos Cortes

Carlos Cortes

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr.

RF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH0-4
0
4
ATL3-1
ATH0-4·ATL3-1
ATH

ATH

0-4

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
0-44000001
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
0-44000002
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT26.735
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
2-44020000
SPRINT27.148
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
0-44000000
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.530
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.969
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-33000001
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
1-11010010
SPRINT25.716
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
0-11000001
Team7-3333070017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LopezJ. Lopez★SP
4.0633500
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
1.0000020
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
1.0100010
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
1.0100000
M. KellyM. KellyRP
1.0211010
Team8.01044540
ATL

ATL

3-1

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
2-22120020
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-44110000
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
2-44020000
SPRINT27.354
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-33111010
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-44000001
E. WhiteE. White★CF
0-11000010
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
3-44033001
SPRINT26.428
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
0-33000012
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-44000000
M. YastrzemskiM. YastrzemskiLF
1-22110000
Team10-31314104054
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ElderB. Elder★SP
6.0500150
A. BummerA. BummerRP
1.0100020
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0100000
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0000000
Team9.0700170

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • J. Lopez
    91 pitches·18% CSW
    • FC
      30%·86.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      24%·78.0 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      23%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·88.8 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      7%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Alvarado
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      75%·97.5 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      6%·84.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Kelly
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      47%·96.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      27%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      20%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·96.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Sterner
    11 pitches·55% CSW
    • FC
      36%·87.2 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      36%·81.0 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      27%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FS
      38%·84.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      25%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·73.4 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      13%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·83.0 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • B. Elder
    83 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      35%·91.1 mph·23% whiff
    • SL
      35%·83.1 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.3 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      8%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      44%·99.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      22%·90.3 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      22%·96.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      11%·99.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Bummer
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • ST
      54%·79.5 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      23%·80.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      15%·91.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      25%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      13%·82.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

10

0

Runs

4

0

Errors

2

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Mar 30ATHATH0@ATLATL4today
Mar 31ATHATH5@ATLATL2
Apr 1ATHATH1@ATLATL5

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

Mar 30ATHATH0@ATLATL4today
Mar 31ATHATH5@ATLATL2
Apr 1ATHATH1@ATLATL5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH+10449%
ATLATL-12656%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 1st Inning

ATHATH
C. Cortes

C. Cortes

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Lopez

J. Lopez

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 H · 5 BB

ATLATL
R. Acuna Jr.

R. Acuna Jr.

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

B. Elder

B. Elder

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATL beat ATH 4-0.

Win probability

ATL vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 74% WP

Olson · doubled to left, Acuña Jr. scored, Baldwin to third.

ATLBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+14pp→ 83% WP

Dub · ón singled to right, Baldwin and Olson scored, White to third.

ATLTop 8th Inning · 0-3
+9pp→ 98% WP

Rooker · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Soderstrom out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0000000000
ATL30000001—4

Period scoring

ATH won 0 · ATL won 2

0
3

Inn 1

Dub 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Dub 1

0

Inn 9

ATH
ATL

Play-by-play · 527 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  2. T9

    Muncy popped out to first.

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  6. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Max Muncy

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  7. T9

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  8. T9

    Butler grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Wilson out at second.

    · ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

    +2pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  11. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Lawrence Butler

    · ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  12. T9

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  13. T9

    Wilson safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Dubón.

    · ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

    −1pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  17. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Jacob Wilson

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  18. T9

    Iglesias relieved R. Suarez

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  21. B8

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  22. B8

    Harris II grounded out to second.

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  23. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  24. B8

    Michael Kelly pitches to Michael Harris II

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  25. B8

    ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  26. B8

    Heim struck out swinging, Dubón caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.

    · ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  27. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  28. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATH 0·ATL 4

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

0

Runs

4

7

Hits

10

0

Errors

2

9

TB

14

0

HR

0

1

BB

5

7

K

4

12

LOB

17

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 9·ATH +104/ATL -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 1, 26sim 97
    111
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 96
    74
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 95
    230
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    12
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    60
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 95
    115
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

ATL vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    6.0± 3.1low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.6± 3.2high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.6± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Brent RookerATH
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    2.7± 2.2low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    55.2%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.1%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.4%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 16 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586