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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4CHC
LAA

LAA

3-4

2
6
CHC

CHC

3-3

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
25,125 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 6.0

open O/U 6.0

CHC no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

-1.0-2.0CHC SPREADO/U 6.5O/U 5.5TOTAL63.3%55.3%CHC NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

LAA 2 · CHC 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0000020002
CHC005000106

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-163

Close price

-163

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Apr 1·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1/VegasCHC -163

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Los Angeles Angels, 6–2.

CHC -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Zach Neto

Zach Neto

SS

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Michael Busch

Michael Busch

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA3-4
2
6
CHC3-3
LAA3-4·CHC3-3
LAA

LAA

3-4

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
2-33120011
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-33100012
SPRINT28.688
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-44011000
SPRINT27.867
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
0-44000002
SPRINT2622
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
1-44010002
SPRINT26.735
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-44000003
J. CandelarioJ. Candelario★3B
0-33000003
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
0-33000001
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-33000002
Team4-31312410216
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. KikuchiY. Kikuchi★SP
5.1655450
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
0.2110110
B. SuterB. SuterRP
2.0300040
Team8.010655100
CHC

CHC

3-3

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
3-55131001
SPRINT28.278
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-33011020
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-55110002
SPRINT27.662
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-44200012
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
2-33120011
SPRINT25.716
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33001002
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
2-44022000
SPRINT28.992
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-44011002
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
0-11100010
M. BallesterosM. BallesterosDH
0-22000000
Team10-343461060510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BoydM. Boyd★SP
5.22212100
H. HarveyH. HarveyRP
1.1100030
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0000020
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0100010
Team9.04212160

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • Y. Kikuchi
    91 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      16%·79.4 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      16%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·85.9 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      15%·86.7 mph·17% whiff
  • B. Suter
    44 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      30%·77.1 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      27%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      23%·76.6 mph·83% whiff
    • SI
      20%·89.0 mph·13% whiff
  • R. Zeferjahn
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      52%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·83.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      19%·96.3 mph·— whiff

CHC

  • M. Boyd
    98 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      58%·92.2 mph·28% whiff
    • CH
      31%·79.3 mph·31% whiff
    • CU
      9%·72.4 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      2%·83.3 mph·— whiff
  • H. Harvey
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      55%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      25%·87.9 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      54%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      31%·76.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      15%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      78%·98.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      11%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·89.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

10

2

Runs

6

2

Errors

1

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Mar 30LAALAA2@CHCCHC7
Mar 31LAALAA2@CHCCHC0
Apr 1LAALAA2@CHCCHC6today

Season series

CHC win series 2-1

Mar 30LAALAA2@CHCCHC7
Mar 31LAALAA2@CHCCHC0
Apr 1LAALAA2@CHCCHC6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

6.0

Defensive · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+13543%
CHCCHC-16362%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

LAALAA
Z. Neto

Z. Neto

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

Y. Kikuchi

Y. Kikuchi

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

CHCCHC
M. Busch

M. Busch

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

M. Boyd

M. Boyd

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

5.2 IP · 10 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHC beat LAA 6-2.

Win probability

CHC vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 63% WP

Trout · struck out swinging.

CHCBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 79% WP

Hoerner · doubled to center, Amaya scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0000020002
CHC00500010—6

Period scoring

LAA won 1 · CHC won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
5

Inn 3

Hoerner 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Adell 1

0
1

Inn 7

Shaw 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

LAA
CHC

Play-by-play · 559 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  2. T9

    Peraza lined out to second.

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  4. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Oswald Peraza

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  5. T9

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  6. T9

    Moncada singled to left.

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  10. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Yoan Moncada

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  11. T9

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  12. T9

    Soler struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  17. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Jorge Soler

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  18. T9

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  19. T9

    Adell grounded out to first.

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

    +0.9pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  21. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Jo Adell

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  22. T9

    Palencia relieved Thielbar

    ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  25. B8

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  26. B8

    Kelly struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 6

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

2

Runs

6

4

Hits

10

2

Errors

1

4

TB

13

0

HR

0

2

BB

5

16

K

10

7

LOB

20

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 6·LAA +135/CHC -163

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 30, 26sim 98
    32
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 95
    36
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 95
    205
    23(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    206
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 94
    202
    16(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 94
    92
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

CHC vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Carson KellyCHC
    0.9± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.4%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    61.9%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.6%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.8%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278