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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1WSH
WSH

WSH

8-9

5
4
PIT

PIT

10-7

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
9,423 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

PIT no-vig %

62.8%

open 62.8%

-1.0-2.0PIT SPREADO/U 10.5O/U 9.5TOTAL66.8%58.8%PIT NO-VIG %MODEL 62.3%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 5 · PIT 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH3011000005
PIT1002100004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    33
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 96
    32
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 95
    310
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 95
    91
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 11, 26sim 95
    32
    5(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 95
    92
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+157

Close price

+157

Open no-vig

37.2%

Close no-vig

37.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, Apr 14·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasPIT -192

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

WSH +1.5 cashed (PIT lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 10.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
CJ Abrams

CJ Abrams

SS

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe

2B

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH8-9
5
4
PIT10-7
WSH8-9·PIT10-7
WSH

WSH

8-9

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-33100023
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-22111010
SPRINT26.735
B. HouseB. House★3B
2-44121001
SPRINT2872
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-44011001
SPRINT29.395
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
3-44132100
SPRINT28.483
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-44000002
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
1-33010001
D. MillasD. Millas★C
0-33000000
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-33100010
C. MeadC. Mead1B
0-22000000
J. TenaJ. TenaDH
1-11010000
Team9-3333595148
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. PoulinP. Poulin★RP
1.0211011
M. MikolasM. MikolasSP
3.1333201
M. ParkerM. ParkerRP
2.0200050
C. PerezC. PerezRP
1.0000100
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
0.2000000
G. VarlandG. VarlandRP
1.0100110
Team9.0844472
PIT

PIT

10-7

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-55000003
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-22211111
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-33110011
SPRINT27.969
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
0-33000010
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
2-44021000
SPRINT25.614
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-44001001
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-22000000
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
2-44020000
SPRINT29.899
J. BartJ. Bart★C
1-33111111
SPRINT26.428
N. YorkeN. Yorke3B
0-22000000
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
1-22010000
Team8-3434484247
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellerM. Keller★SP
4.0655431
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
2.0000020
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.0100020
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
2.0200010
Team9.0955481

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • M. Mikolas
    49 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      27%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.0 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      18%·76.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      16%·87.1 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      12%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.6 mph·— whiff
  • M. Parker
    46 pitches·39% CSW
    • SL
      59%·83.0 mph·42% whiff
    • FF
      22%·93.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      17%·79.2 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      2%·85.8 mph·100% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      52%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      16%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·90.6 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      16%·79.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Varland
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      63%·95.1 mph·80% whiff
    • SL
      32%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·92.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Perez
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • CU
      40%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      30%·85.9 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.0 mph·— whiff
  • C. Beeter
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·85.6 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • M. Keller
    90 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      28%·93.6 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      20%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      11%·78.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      4%·88.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      3%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    33 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      82%·93.8 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      12%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    26 pitches·35% CSW
    • ST
      50%·84.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      38%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·94.3 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      67%·99.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      28%·90.3 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      6%·89.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

8

5

Runs

4

2

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 13WSHWSH5@PITPIT16
Apr 14WSHWSH5@PITPIT4today
Apr 15WSHWSH0@PITPIT2
Apr 16WSHWSH8@PITPIT7

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 13WSHWSH5@PITPIT16
Apr 14WSHWSH5@PITPIT4today
Apr 15WSHWSH0@PITPIT2
Apr 16WSHWSH8@PITPIT7
Jul 3PITPIT@WSHWSHupcoming
Jul 4PITPIT@WSHWSHupcoming
Jul 5PITPIT@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+15739%
PITPIT-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 38pp · Top 8th Inning

WSHWSH
C. Abrams

C. Abrams

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

M. Parker

M. Parker

RP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 2 H

PITPIT
B. Lowe

B. Lowe

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

M. Keller

M. Keller

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

How it ended

WSH beat PIT 5-4. Abrams's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (38pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PIT vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 5th Inning · 5-4
+15pp→ 46% WP

Bart · homered to left center (383 feet).

WSHTop 8th Inning · 5-4
+38pp→ 74% WP

Abrams · doubled to right.

WSHBottom 9th Inning · 5-4
+19pp→ 100% WP

Yorke · fouled out to first.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH3011000005
PIT1002100004

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · PIT won 2

3
1

Inn 1

House 1

Lowe 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Abrams 1

1
2

Inn 4

Garc 1

Ozuna 1

0
1

Inn 5

Bart 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

WSH
PIT

Play-by-play · 614 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  3. B9

    Yorke fouled out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

    −19pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  8. B9

    Gus Varland pitches to Nick Yorke

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  9. B9

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  10. B9

    Cruz struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

    −17pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  16. B9

    Gus Varland pitches to Oneil Cruz

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  17. B9

    Cook ran for Bart

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  18. B9

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  19. B9

    Bart walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

    +7pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  26. B9

    Gus Varland pitches to Joey Bart

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  27. B9

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  28. B9

    Griffin doubled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

    +14pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

  30. B9

    Gus Varland pitches to Konnor Griffin

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 4

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

5

Runs

4

9

Hits

8

2

Errors

0

14

TB

16

1

HR

2

4

BB

4

8

K

7

13

LOB

20

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 10·WSH +157/PIT -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

PIT vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.8%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    61.0%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.6%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.3%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.