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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5CHC
LAA

LAA

2-3

2
7
CHC

CHC

2-2

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
36,702 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

CHC no-vig %

63.1%

open 63.1%

-1.0-2.0CHC SPREADO/U 10.5O/U 9.5TOTAL67.1%59.1%CHC NO-VIG %MODEL 64.1%May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

LAA 2 · CHC 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0000002002
CHC303000107

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Mar 30·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1/VegasCHC -194

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Los Angeles Angels, 7–2.

CHC -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 10.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Yoan Moncada

Yoan Moncada

3B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Dansby Swanson

Dansby Swanson

SS

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA2-3
2
7
CHC2-2
LAA2-3·CHC2-2
LAA

LAA

2-3

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-44000002
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT25.920
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-44110002
SPRINT2622
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
1-33112111
SPRINT26.735
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-33000002
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-33000000
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-33000000
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-33000001
Team5-3131252119
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. JohnsonR. Johnson★SP
3.1766421
J. LucchesiJ. LucchesiRP
1.2100120
S. AndersonS. AndersonRP
3.0111210
Team8.0977751
CHC

CHC

2-2

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-33100020
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-44010010
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-44211110
SPRINT27.662
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-33210011
SPRINT29.294
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-22211010
SPRINT28.278
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-44012001
SPRINT25.716
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
1-44012001
SPRINT24.53
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
2-33021010
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
0-22000002
M. ShawM. ShawRF
1-22010000
Team9-3131797175
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. CabreraE. Cabrera★SP
6.0100150
C. ReaC. ReaSP
3.0422041
Team9.0522191

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • R. Johnson
    80 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      35%·90.4 mph·19% whiff
    • FS
      34%·82.9 mph·41% whiff
    • SI
      16%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·78.5 mph·33% whiff
  • S. Anderson
    40 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      30%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·89.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      18%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·82.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Lucchesi
    29 pitches·10% CSW
    • SI
      52%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      31%·77.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·92.7 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      7%·82.3 mph·— whiff

CHC

  • E. Cabrera
    80 pitches·28% CSW
    • CH
      31%·92.9 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      28%·96.5 mph·9% whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.5 mph·56% whiff
    • CU
      16%·84.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      5%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Rea
    42 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      40%·94.3 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      19%·86.2 mph·29% whiff
    • FS
      12%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      5%·79.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·82.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

2

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Mar 30LAALAA2@CHCCHC7today
Mar 31LAALAA2@CHCCHC0
Apr 1LAALAA2@CHCCHC6

Season series

CHC lead series 1-0

Mar 30LAALAA2@CHCCHC7today
Mar 31LAALAA2@CHCCHC0
Apr 1LAALAA2@CHCCHC6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+15939%
CHCCHC-19466%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 1st Inning

LAALAA
Y. Moncada

Y. Moncada

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

R. Johnson

R. Johnson

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 2 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 4 BB

CHCCHC
D. Swanson

D. Swanson

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

E. Cabrera

E. Cabrera

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat LAA 7-2.

Win probability

CHC vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+11pp→ 88% WP

Kelly · singled to right, Happ and Crow-Armstrong scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0000002002
CHC30300010—7

Period scoring

LAA won 1 · CHC won 2

0
3

Inn 1

Kelly 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Ballesteros 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
1

Inn 7

Moncada 2

Swanson 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

LAA
CHC

Play-by-play · 529 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  2. T9

    Moncada struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  10. T9

    Colin Rea pitches to Yoan Moncada

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  11. T9

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  12. T9

    Soler struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

    +0.9pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  19. T9

    Colin Rea pitches to Jorge Soler

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  20. T9

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  21. T9

    Schanuel singled to center, Neto to second.

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

    −0.7pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  24. T9

    Colin Rea pitches to Nolan Schanuel

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  25. T9

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  26. T9

    Trout lined out to center.

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

    +0.8pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

  30. T9

    Colin Rea pitches to Mike Trout

    · ·

    LAA 2·CHC 7

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

2

Runs

7

5

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

8

TB

13

1

HR

1

1

BB

7

9

K

5

8

LOB

18

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 10·LAA +159/CHC -194

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CHC vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Carson KellyCHC
    0.9± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.1%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    62.3%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.8%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.3%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 1, 26sim 98
    32
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 97
    206
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 96
    202
    16(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 96
    205
    23(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 94
    310
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 94
    205
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs