Matchup orbital
2
MIN
MIN
12-16
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME
4
TB
TB
16-11
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
TB wins
MIN 2 · TB 4 (by 2)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked TB +11pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
MIN12-16
MIN
16-11TB
TB
Recap · MLB
ampa Bay Rays held off Minnesota Twins, 4–2.
TB -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Current series
TB wins series 3-0
MIN2@TB6MIN1@TB6MIN2@TB4todaySeason series
TB wins series 5-1
TB4@MIN10TB7@MIN1TB4@MIN1MIN2@TB6MIN1@TB6MIN2@TB4todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TB -1.5
Total
8.5
Standard · 0.0 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN+11946%TB-14359%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 2 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 3rd Inning
MIN
B. Lee
SSBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS
S. Woods Richardson
SPStarting pitcher
4.1 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 3 BB
TB
H. Feduccia
CBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS
J. Scholtens
RPTop reliever
4.1 IP · 1 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB
How it ended
TB beat MIN 4-2.
Win probability
TB vs MIN
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWallner · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Clemens out at second.
Aranda · singled to center, Feduccia scored and Simpson scored.
Lee · homered to right (333 feet), Outman scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 |
Period scoring
MIN won 1 · TB won 1
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Aranda 2
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Lee 2
Inn 8
Inn 9
Game flow · key plays
- T7
Lee homered to right (333 feet), Outman scored.
MIN 2·TB 4
−8pp
- B3
Díaz homered to right (359 feet), Aranda scored.
MIN 0·TB 4
+9pp
- B3
Aranda singled to center, Feduccia scored and Simpson scored.
MIN 0·TB 2
+10pp
- B3
Feduccia reached on infield single to pitcher, Feduccia safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Woods Richardson.
MIN 0·TB 0
+6pp
- T2
Wallner grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Clemens out at second.
MIN 0·TB 0
+8pp
- B1
Caminero grounded into double play, second to first, Simpson out at second.
MIN 0·TB 0
−7pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
TB
Home
5
Hits
9
1
Errors
1
2
Runs
4
Player box score
MIN
12-16
B. Lee★
SS
OPS
1.833
H-AB
1-3
R
1
RBI
2
HR
1
T. Larnach★
LF
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Bell★
1B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
R. Jeffers★
C
OPS
0.833
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
K. Clemens★
1B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
L. Keaschall★
2B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
M. Wallner★
RF
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
R. Lewis★
3B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Outman★
CF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
5-32
R
2
RBI
2
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B. Lee★SS | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.833 |
T. Larnach★LF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
J. Bell★1B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
R. Jeffers★C | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.833 |
K. Clemens★1B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
L. Keaschall★2B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
M. Wallner★RF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
R. Lewis★3B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
J. Outman★CF | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| Team | 5-32 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
S. Woods Richardson★
SP
IP
4.1
H
8
ER
4
K
2
A. Banda
RP
IP
0.2
H
0
ER
0
K
1
K. Funderburk
RP
IP
1.1
H
0
ER
0
K
0
C. Sands
RP
IP
0.2
H
0
ER
0
K
0
J. Topa
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
1
IP
8.0
H
9
ER
4
K
4
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
S. Woods Richardson★SP | 4.1 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
A. BandaRP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
K. FunderburkRP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
C. SandsRP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J. TopaRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 8.0 | 9 | 4 | 4 |
TB
16-11
C. Simpson★
LF
OPS
1.500
H-AB
3-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Caminero★
3B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Aranda★
1B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
2
HR
0
Y. Diaz★
1B
OPS
1.833
H-AB
1-3
R
1
RBI
2
HR
1
J. Fraley★
RF
OPS
0.833
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
B. Williamson★
2B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
C. Mullins★
CF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
T. Walls★
SS
OPS
1.167
H-AB
1-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H. Feduccia★
C
OPS
2.000
H-AB
1-1
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
N. Fortes
C
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
9-30
R
4
RBI
4
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C. Simpson★LF | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.500 |
J. Caminero★3B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
J. Aranda★1B | 1-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 |
Y. Diaz★1B | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.833 |
J. Fraley★RF | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.833 |
B. Williamson★2B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
C. Mullins★CF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
T. Walls★SS | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.167 |
H. Feduccia★C | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.000 |
N. FortesC | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 9-30 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — |
G. Jax★
RP
IP
2.1
H
1
ER
0
K
2
J. Scholtens
RP
IP
4.1
H
3
ER
2
K
1
C. Sulser
RP
IP
1.1
H
1
ER
0
K
2
B. Baker
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
1
IP
9.0
H
5
ER
2
K
6
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
G. Jax★RP | 2.1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
J. ScholtensRP | 4.1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
C. SulserRP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
B. BakerRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
Betting line
TB -1.5·O/U 8.5·MIN +119/TB -143