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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8CHC
WSH

WSH

1-1

2
10
CHC

CHC

1-1

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
34,834 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CHC no-vig %

68.4%

open 68.4%

-1.0-2.0CHC SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL72.4%64.4%CHC NO-VIG %MODEL 64.7%May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

WSH 2 · CHC 10 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0001100002
CHC0401140010

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Mar 28·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1/VegasCHC -252

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Washington Nationals, 10–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHC -1.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
James Wood

James Wood

RF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Miguel Amaya

Miguel Amaya

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH1-1
2
10
CHC1-1
WSH1-1·CHC1-1
WSH

WSH

1-1

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-44111101
SPRINT27.457
D. MillasD. Millas★C
0-33000011
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.735
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-33010010
SPRINT29.395
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-33100012
SPRINT2872
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
0-33000000
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
1-33011001
SPRINT29.899
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
0-22000000
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-33000001
Team4-2828242146
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MikolasM. Mikolas★SP
5.0664341
A. GranilloA. GranilloRP
0.2122100
K. WaldichukK. WaldichukRP
1.1322221
C. HenryC. HenryRP
1.0000010
Team8.010108672
CHC

CHC

1-1

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-44110010
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-55000001
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-55113101
SPRINT27.662
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
2-44220011
SPRINT29.294
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-33111020
SPRINT28.278
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-33110010
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
1-33110002
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-33111001
SPRINT28.992
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
2-44222101
SPRINT257
Team10-343410108267
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HortonC. Horton★SP
6.1422141
P. MatonP. MatonRP
0.2000010
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0000110
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
1.0000200
Team9.0422461

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • M. Mikolas
    97 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      25%·91.3 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      23%·92.1 mph·30% whiff
    • CH
      15%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·74.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      8%·81.2 mph·— whiff
  • K. Waldichuk
    32 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      47%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      28%·82.2 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      19%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.6 mph·— whiff
  • A. Granillo
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      72%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      28%·94.3 mph·— whiff
  • C. Henry
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      64%·94.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      27%·81.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      9%·91.0 mph·— whiff

CHC

  • C. Horton
    75 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.4 mph·21% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.9 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      15%·83.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      11%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·95.8 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      31%·88.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      19%·76.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Webb
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      63%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Maton
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      67%·90.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      33%·77.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

10

2

Runs

10

1

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Mar 26WSHWSH10@CHCCHC4
Mar 28WSHWSH2@CHCCHC10today
Mar 29WSHWSH6@CHCCHC3

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 26WSHWSH10@CHCCHC4
Mar 28WSHWSH2@CHCCHC10today
Mar 29WSHWSH6@CHCCHC3
Aug 11CHCCHC@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 12CHCCHC@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 13CHCCHC@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+20333%
CHCCHC-25272%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 8pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

WSHWSH
J. Wood

J. Wood

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

CHCCHC
M. Amaya

M. Amaya

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

C. Horton

C. Horton

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat WSH 10-2.

Win probability

CHC vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 2nd Inning · 0-4
+8pp→ 93% WP

Ballesteros · scored on error and Amaya scored on error, Busch safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Nuñez, Busch safe at second on error.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0001100002
CHC04011400—10

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · CHC won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
4

Inn 2

Ballesteros 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
1

Inn 4

Wood 1

Amaya 1

1
1

Inn 5

Hoerner 1

0
4

Inn 6

Happ 3

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

WSH
CHC

Play-by-play · 542 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  2. T9

    House grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Lile out at second.

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  6. T9

    Jacob Webb pitches to Brady House

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  7. T9

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  8. T9

    Lile walked, Millas to second.

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  15. T9

    Jacob Webb pitches to Daylen Lile

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  16. T9

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  17. T9

    García Jr. flied out to center.

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  20. T9

    Jacob Webb pitches to Luis Garcia Jr.

    · ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  21. T9

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  22. T9

    Millas walked.

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  28. T9

    Jacob Webb pitches to Drew Millas

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  29. T9

    Webb relieved Thielbar

    ·

    WSH 2·CHC 10

  30. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    WSH 2·CHC 10

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

2

Runs

10

4

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

7

TB

17

1

HR

2

4

BB

6

6

K

7

10

LOB

12

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 8.5·WSH +203/CHC -252

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+203

Close price

+203

Open no-vig

31.6%

Close no-vig

31.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

CHC vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.9%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    62.8%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.7%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.6%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 10, 26sim 96
    310
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 96
    32
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    206
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 95
    205
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 94
    2010
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 94
    32
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs