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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3WSH
WSH

WSH

2-1

6
3
CHC

CHC

1-2

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
33,559 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CHC no-vig %

67.8%

open 67.8%

-1.0-2.0CHC SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL71.8%63.8%CHC NO-VIG %MODEL 66.1%May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 6 · CHC 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH3000010206
CHC0002000103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Player projections

CHC vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.1%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    63.9%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.9%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.7%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+197

Close price

+197

Open no-vig

32.2%

Close no-vig

32.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 30, 26sim 97
    32
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 95
    202
    16(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 95
    32
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 94
    205
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 93
    2010
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 93
    1810
    17(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Mar 29·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1/VegasCHC -243

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 6–3.

WSH +1.5 cashed (CHC lost outright). Total pushed exactly on 9.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Joey Wiemer

Joey Wiemer

RF

3.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Alex Bregman

Alex Bregman

3B

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH2-1
6
3
CHC1-2
WSH2-1·CHC1-2
WSH

WSH

2-1

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-44000012
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
0-33000002
B. HouseB. House★3B
2-55120001
SPRINT2872
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-44220011
SPRINT29.395
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
3-33133110
SPRINT28.891
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-33000002
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT29.899
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
1-33113100
SPRINT25.411
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-44010000
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.1B
1-22010000
Team11-35356116239
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
5.0322172
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
0.2000110
G. VarlandG. VarlandRP
1.1000010
C. PerezC. PerezRP
1.0111011
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0000000
Team9.04332103
CHC

CHC

1-2

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-44000002
SPRINT25.716
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
2-44222200
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-33111112
SPRINT27.662
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-44000000
SPRINT29.294
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.278
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-44000001
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
0-44000001
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33000002
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
0-22000011
Team4-32323433210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ImanagaS. Imanaga★SP
5.0644271
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.0000110
H. HarveyH. HarveyRP
1.0100000
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.0222001
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0200010
Team9.01166392

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    93 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      25%·93.6 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      22%·77.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      22%·92.4 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      13%·82.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·86.6 mph·50% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      43%·79.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      36%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·90.3 mph·— whiff
  • C. Perez
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • CU
      36%·85.6 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      27%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      27%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.4 mph·— whiff
  • G. Varland
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      44%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·92.1 mph·— whiff
  • C. Beeter
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      67%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·89.3 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • S. Imanaga
    82 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      38%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      34%·83.8 mph·53% whiff
    • ST
      17%·82.4 mph·78% whiff
    • SI
      9%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      2%·75.4 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Maton
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      52%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      30%·76.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·83.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      4%·88.3 mph·— whiff
  • H. Milner
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • SI
      59%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·77.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      50%·99.7 mph·57% whiff
    • FS
      25%·89.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      25%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Harvey
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FS
      50%·89.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      30%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

4

6

Runs

3

2

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Mar 26WSHWSH10@CHCCHC4
Mar 28WSHWSH2@CHCCHC10
Mar 29WSHWSH6@CHCCHC3today

Season series

WSH leads series 2-1

Mar 26WSHWSH10@CHCCHC4
Mar 28WSHWSH2@CHCCHC10
Mar 29WSHWSH6@CHCCHC3today
Aug 11CHCCHC@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 12CHCCHC@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 13CHCCHC@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+19734%
CHCCHC-24371%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 1st Inning

WSHWSH
J. Wiemer

J. Wiemer

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

CHCCHC
A. Bregman

A. Bregman

3B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

S. Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

WSH beat CHC 6-3. Wiemer's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+26pp→ 59% WP

Wiemer · homered to left center (384 feet), House scored and Lile scored.

CHCBottom 4th Inning · 3-2
+13pp→ 57% WP

Happ · homered to left (361 feet).

WSHTop 8th Inning · 6-2
+16pp→ 96% WP

Ruiz · homered to left center (373 feet), Nuñez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH3000010206
CHC0002000103

Period scoring

WSH won 3 · CHC won 1

3
0

Inn 1

Wiemer 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Bregman 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Ruiz 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
1

Inn 8

Ruiz 2

Bregman 1

0
0

Inn 9

WSH
CHC

Play-by-play · 553 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  2. B9

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  3. B9

    Ballesteros grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  6. B9

    Clayton Beeter pitches to Moises Ballesteros

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  7. B9

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  8. B9

    Kelly grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

    −1pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  11. B9

    Clayton Beeter pitches to Carson Kelly

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  12. B9

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  13. B9

    Hoerner lined out to center.

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

    −2pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  16. B9

    Clayton Beeter pitches to Nico Hoerner

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  17. B9

    Beeter relieved Pérez

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  18. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  19. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  20. T9

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  21. T9

    Lile doubled to center, García Jr. thrown out at home.

    ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  25. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Daylen Lile

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  26. T9

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  27. T9

    House struck out swinging.

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

    +0.5pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 6·CHC 3

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

6

Runs

3

11

Hits

4

2

Errors

0

21

TB

13

2

HR

3

3

BB

2

9

K

10

16

LOB

9

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 9·WSH +197/CHC -243

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483