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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4LAA
LAA

LAA

2-0

6
2
HOU

HOU

0-2

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
30,788 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

HOU spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

HOU no-vig %

60.1%

open 60.1%

-1.0-2.0HOU SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL64.1%56.1%HOU NO-VIG %MODEL 60.4%May 4, 11 AMMay 29, 11 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 6 · HOU 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA1300100016
HOU1000100002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 1, 26sim 95
    32
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 95
    205
    23(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 94
    33
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 94
    92
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    42
    28(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 94
    91
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Mar 27·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasHOU -169

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels went into Houston Astros and beat them, 6–2.

LAA +1.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Mike Trout

Mike Trout

CF

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa

SS

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA2-0
6
2
HOU0-2
LAA2-0·HOU0-2
LAA

LAA

2-0

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
2-55221101
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
3-44131110
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
2-33020020
SPRINT25.920
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
0-44000012
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-44100011
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-55110002
SPRINT27.867
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
2-44123101
SPRINT27.251
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
1-44010002
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-33000012
Team11-363661153611
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. KikuchiY. Kikuchi★SP
4.1822131
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
0.2000000
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
2.0000020
S. BachmanS. BachmanRP
1.0000230
J. RomanoJ. RomanoRP
1.0000020
Team9.08223101
HOU

HOU

0-2

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
2-55120000
SPRINT28.483
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
1-55111101
SPRINT24.64
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
0-44000002
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-33010011
SPRINT27.867
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
2-33020010
SPRINT27.251
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-44000002
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-33000010
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-44010001
SPRINT25.513
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
1-33010002
J. LoperfidoJ. LoperfidoLF
0-11000001
Team8-35352811310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BurrowsM. Burrows★SP
5.2955262
R. MunozR. MunozRP
0.2000300
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.2000030
R. WeissR. WeissRP
1.0211121
Team9.011666113

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

8

6

Runs

2

2

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Mar 26LAALAA3@HOUHOU0
Mar 28LAALAA6@HOUHOU2today
Mar 28LAALAA9@HOUHOU11
Mar 29LAALAA7@HOUHOU9

Season series

LAA lead series 2-0

Mar 26LAALAA3@HOUHOU0
Mar 28LAALAA6@HOUHOU2today
Mar 28LAALAA9@HOUHOU11
Mar 29LAALAA7@HOUHOU9
Jun 9HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 10HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 11HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 28HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 29HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 30HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 19LAALAA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 20LAALAA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 21LAALAA@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+14042%
HOUHOU-16963%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 2nd Inning

LAALAA
M. Trout

M. Trout

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

Y. Kikuchi

Y. Kikuchi

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

HOUHOU
C. Correa

C. Correa

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

M. Burrows

M. Burrows

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 9 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAA beat HOU 6-2. Lowe's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

HOU vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 62% WP

Altuve · walked.

LAATop 2nd Inning · 4-1
+23pp→ 72% WP

Lowe · homered to left center (374 feet), Moncada scored and Adell scored.

HOUBottom 5th Inning · 5-2
+9pp→ 23% WP

Alvarez · homered to right (378 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA1300100016
HOU1000100002

Period scoring

LAA won 2 · HOU won 0

1
1

Inn 1

Schanuel 1

Altuve 1

3
0

Inn 2

Lowe 3

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
1

Inn 5

Trout 1

Alvarez 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Neto 1

LAA
HOU

Play-by-play · 615 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  2. B9

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  3. B9

    Alvarez struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  8. B9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Yordan Alvarez

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  9. B9

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  10. B9

    Peña flied out to right.

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

    −0.6pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  14. B9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Jeremy Pena

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  15. B9

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  16. B9

    Loperfido struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

    −0.7pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  23. B9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Joey Loperfido

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  24. B9

    Romano relieved Bachman

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  25. B9

    Loperfido hit for Matthews

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  28. T9

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  29. T9

    Adell struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 2

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

6

Runs

2

11

Hits

8

2

Errors

0

22

TB

12

3

HR

1

6

BB

3

11

K

10

23

LOB

14

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 8.5·LAA +140/HOU -169

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

HOU vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.8%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    59.6%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.1%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.1%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bryce TeodosioLAA · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483