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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5BAL
TEX

TEX

4-2

3
8
BAL

BAL

3-3

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
14,324 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

BAL no-vig %

51.7%

open 51.7%

+2.0+1.0BAL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL55.7%47.7%BAL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

TEX 3 · BAL 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0002000103
BAL022031008

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Apr 1·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -118

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Texas Rangers, 8–3.

BAL +1.5 cashed (TEX lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Corey Seager

Corey Seager

SS

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Leody Taveras

Leody Taveras

CF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX4-2
3
8
BAL3-3
TEX4-2·BAL3-3
TEX

TEX

4-2

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-33010011
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-44000001
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
1-44111100
SPRINT24.96
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
0-44000001
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
1-33110011
SPRINT27.662
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
1-44110000
SPRINT26.838
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
2-44021000
SPRINT25.920
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-22011000
SPRINT28.891
S. HaggertyS. Haggerty★LF
1-22010000
J. SmithJ. Smith2B
0-22000000
E. CarterE. CarterCF
0-22000001
Team8-3434383125
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. EovaldiN. Eovaldi★SP
4.0866351
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
1.0211200
C. BaumlerC. BaumlerRP
2.0211121
J. LatzJ. LatzRP
1.0000000
Team8.01288672
BAL

BAL

3-3

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
2-44022001
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-44000011
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44110010
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
2-55121101
SPRINT25.310
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-44100013
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
3-55331101
SPRINT29.194
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-22110010
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
2-22122020
SPRINT2993
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-33012000
SPRINT26.530
Team12-33338128267
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. RogersT. Rogers★SP
6.0622130
A. SuarezA. SuarezRP
3.0211121
Team9.0833251

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • N. Eovaldi
    88 pitches·24% CSW
    • FS
      34%·89.1 mph·12% whiff
    • CU
      27%·76.9 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      17%·90.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      2%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Baumler
    36 pitches·33% CSW
    • CU
      50%·84.4 mph·30% whiff
    • FF
      28%·94.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      19%·88.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      3%·94.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Alexander
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      32%·83.6 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      28%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      16%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·91.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Latz
    14 pitches·7% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·78.3 mph·— whiff

BAL

  • T. Rogers
    91 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      46%·92.9 mph·19% whiff
    • CH
      19%·85.8 mph·8% whiff
    • ST
      16%·78.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·80.9 mph·67% whiff
  • A. Suarez
    42 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      64%·94.2 mph·21% whiff
    • FC
      17%·86.1 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·76.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

12

3

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

Mar 30TEXTEX5@BALBAL2
Mar 31TEXTEX8@BALBAL5
Apr 1TEXTEX3@BALBAL8today

Season series

TEX leads series 2-1

Mar 30TEXTEX5@BALBAL2
Mar 31TEXTEX8@BALBAL5
Apr 1TEXTEX3@BALBAL8today
Aug 8BALBAL@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 8BALBAL@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 9BALBAL@TEXTEXupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX-10250%
BALBAL-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

TEXTEX
C. Seager

C. Seager

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

N. Eovaldi

N. Eovaldi

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

BALBAL
L. Taveras

L. Taveras

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

T. Rogers

T. Rogers

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BAL beat TEX 8-3.

Win probability

BAL vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 78% WP

Ward · doubled to right, Taveras scored.

BALBottom 3rd Inning · 0-4
+11pp→ 91% WP

Taveras · doubled to right, Alonso scored and Beavers scored, Cowser to third.

TEXTop 4th Inning · 2-4
+8pp→ 23% WP

Duran · singled to center, Jansen scored, Duran to second, Jung to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0002000103
BAL02203100—8

Period scoring

TEX won 2 · BAL won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Jackson 1

0
2

Inn 3

Taveras 2

2
0

Inn 4

Jung 1

0
3

Inn 5

Basallo 1

0
1

Inn 6

Beavers 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Seager 1

0

Inn 9

TEX
BAL

Play-by-play · 572 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  2. T9

    Carter struck out looking.

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  7. T9

    Albert Suarez pitches to Evan Carter

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  8. T9

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  9. T9

    Smith flied out to right.

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  13. T9

    Albert Suarez pitches to Josh Smith

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  14. T9

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  15. T9

    Jung flied out to center.

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  18. T9

    Albert Suarez pitches to Josh Jung

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  21. B8

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  22. B8

    Beavers flied out to center.

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  23. B8

    Pitch 10 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  24. B8

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  25. B8

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  26. B8

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  27. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  28. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 3·BAL 8

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

3

Runs

8

8

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

12

TB

20

1

HR

2

2

BB

6

5

K

7

9

LOB

15

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 8·TEX -102/BAL -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

BAL vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    48.6%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.1%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.4%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 7, 26sim 98
    169
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 97
    164
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 97
    29
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 96
    155
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 95
    138
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    1811
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs