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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ARI
ATL

ATL

6-4

5
6
ARI

ARI

5-5

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
25,814 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ARI no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.0%

+2.0+1.0ARI SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL54.0%46.0%ARI NO-VIG %MODEL 47.7%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ATL 5 · ARI 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
ATL10002010105
ARI10020110016

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 4, 26sim 99
    1811
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 98
    169
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 97
    138
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    133
    1(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    174
    28(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 95
    298
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Apr 5·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasARI -110

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off Atlanta Braves, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

ARI +1.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin

C

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Carlos Santana

Carlos Santana

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
ATL6-4
5
6
ARI5-5
ATL6-4·ARI5-5
ATL

ATL

6-4

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
2-55020000
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
3-55134100
SPRINT26.632
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-33000022
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
1-55010002
SPRINT2744
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-55010000
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-55010001
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-55110001
SPRINT26.428
E. WhiteE. White★CF
0-22000000
J. MateoJ. Mateo★SS
2-33320010
SPRINT3099
D. SmithD. SmithDH
0-11000000
A. RileyA. Riley3B
0-22000000
Team11-41415114136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. PerezM. Perez★SP
5.0544110
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0100100
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0211000
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0000030
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0000010
Team9.0965250
ARI

ARI

5-5

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
2-55121000
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
3-44231000
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-22001000
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-33111011
SPRINT25.29
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
0-44000001
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
1-11010000
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
0-44000000
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
0-33000000
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
1-44210001
SPRINT28.688
I. VargasI. Vargas1B
1-22012011
SPRINT26.941
G. MorenoG. MorenoC
0-11000001
Team9-3333696025
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. PfaadtB. Pfaadt★RP
4.2633221
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.1000010
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
1.0110110
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
1.0100010
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
1.0311010
T. RashiT. RashiRP
1.0000000
Team10.01154361

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • M. Perez
    75 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      31%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      27%·83.0 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      23%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·76.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      9%·90.0 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • SL
      84%·87.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      11%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lee
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      56%·84.0 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      28%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    14 pitches·57% CSW
    • FF
      57%·98.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      36%·91.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      7%·98.5 mph·— whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      36%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Payamps
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • CH
      100%·86.7 mph·0% whiff

ARI

  • B. Pfaadt
    79 pitches·20% CSW
    • FC
      24%·90.1 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      23%·86.4 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      23%·81.6 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      15%·93.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      10%·93.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      5%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Loaisiga
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      48%·90.4 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      32%·97.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      16%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      41%·93.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      29%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.7 mph·— whiff
  • R. Thompson
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      71%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·91.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      14%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Ginkel
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      62%·94.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      38%·84.5 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Rashi
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      44%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      22%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·76.9 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

9

5

Runs

6

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 3ATLATL17@ARIARI2
Apr 4ATLATL2@ARIARI0
Apr 4ATLATL1@ARIARI2
Apr 5ATLATL5@ARIARI6today

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 3ATLATL17@ARIARI2
Apr 4ATLATL2@ARIARI0
Apr 4ATLATL1@ARIARI2
Apr 5ATLATL5@ARIARI6today
Aug 14ARIARI@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 15ARIARI@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 16ARIARI@ATLATLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATLATL-11052%
ARIARI-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 9th Inning

ATLATL
D. Baldwin

D. Baldwin

C

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

M. Perez

M. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

ARIARI
C. Santana

C. Santana

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Pfaadt

B. Pfaadt

RP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ARI beat ATL 6-5. Baldwin's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Win probability

ARI vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 4th Inning · 1-3
+24pp→ 77% WP

Vargas · tripled to right, Carroll scored and Arenado scored.

ARIBottom 7th Inning · 4-5
+22pp→ 77% WP

Carroll · tripled to right, Barrosa scored.

ATLTop 9th Inning · 5-5
+26pp→ 72% WP

Baldwin · singled to center, Mateo scored, Acuña Jr. to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
ATL10002010105
ARI10020110016

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · ARI won 3

1
1

Inn 1

Baldwin 1

Perdomo 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Vargas 2

2
0

Inn 5

Mateo 1

0
1

Inn 6

Arenado 1

1
1

Inn 7

Baldwin 1

Carroll 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Baldwin 1

0
1

Inn 10

Marte 1

ATL
ARI

Play-by-play · 612 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    ·

    ATL 5·ARI 6

  2. B10

    Marte doubled to right, Barrosa scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 6

    +18pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 6

  4. B10

    Joel Payamps pitches to Ketel Marte

    ·

    ATL 5·ARI 6

  5. B10

    Payamps relieved Iglesias

    ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  6. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  7. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  8. T10

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  9. T10

    Riley flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

    +11pp

  10. T10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  11. T10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  12. T10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  13. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  14. T10

    Taylor Rashi pitches to Austin Riley

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  15. T10

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  16. T10

    Dubón grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

    +18pp

  17. T10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  18. T10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  19. T10

    Taylor Rashi pitches to Mauricio Dubon

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  20. T10

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  21. T10

    Albies grounded out to second, Harris II to third.

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  22. T10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  23. T10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  24. T10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  25. T10

    Taylor Rashi pitches to Ozzie Albies

    ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  26. T10

    Rashi relieved Loaisiga

    ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  27. T10

    Moreno catching.

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  28. T10

    Top of the 10th inning

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  29. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 5·ARI 5

  30. B9

    ·

    ATL 5·ARI 5

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

5

Runs

6

11

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

16

TB

16

1

HR

0

3

BB

2

6

K

5

23

LOB

11

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 9·ATL -110/ARI -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496

Player projections

ARI vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    2.7± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    50.3%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.8%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.6%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.